Market-Implied Top 10 Mock Draft

by Tej Seth|April 11, 2023

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There are multiple ways to approach getting a feel for where players will be selected in the NFL Draft. Mock drafts from media members in the industry are the most popular method for consumers. Websites like Benjamin Robinson’s Grinding the Mocks use the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating many mock drafts together. This can create an expected draft position for each player and give insight into which teams players are being mocked to the most. Another method is to use the betting market’s odds given the wisdom of the crowd approach is still applied here in addition to what is being bet by bettors with information about where players could go.

This market-implied mock draft will use odds from DraftKings, unless noted otherwise, and will be for the top ten picks as of the morning of April 11th given that it is currently available by the book. Though these odds are constantly shifting based on the smallest bits of information, this mock draft is meant to be predictive in that it will be consistent with what the market believes will occur as of right now. Each graph shown will have the vig-free implied probability of the players likely to go at that pick (under the condition that the players taken previously will not be available at that spot).

1. Carolina Panthers: QB, Bryce Young

 

Graph showing NFL players probability of being picked #1 overall in the draft

While the markets have been in favor of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud ever since the Panthers traded up to #1, in the past week Alabama’s Bryce Young has overtaken him as the favorite to be selected first in the draft. Young currently sits at -250 odds, implying he has a 55.8% chance to be taken at this slot. Stroud is at +180 odds giving him a 27.9% chance. This has been a very fluid market and is likely to change as we get closer to the draft.

2. Houston Texans: QB, C.J. Stroud

 

Graph showing NFL players probability of being picked #2 overall in the draft

CJ Stroud is the favorite to go #2 overall to the Houston Texans at -195 odds with Young behind him at +195. When working under the condition that Young has already been selected, Stroud jumps out to the overwhelming favorite with a 57.9% chance to be selected here among the available players. If the Texans decide to not go with a quarterback, the market believes edge rusher Alabama’s Will Anderson has the highest chance of being taken.

3. Tennessee Titans: QB, Anthony Richardson

Graph showing NFL players probability of being picked #3 overall in the draft

What will happen with the #3 pick, currently held by the Arizona Cardinals, took a bit of detective work to decipher. Once we work under the assumption that Young and Stroud have both gone first and second, Florida’s Anthony Richardson becomes the leader in the clubhouse with a 40.8% chance to go in this slot. 

However, the Cardinals already have Kyler Murray under a long-term deal, so the likelihood of them selecting a quarterback is low. The market believes the two teams with the highest chances of drafting Richardson are the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. That bakes in the Colts getting Richardson at #4, so the market might be forecasting the Titans trading up from #11 to take Richardson a spot before the Colts can. 

If the Cardinals do decide to stay at their current pick, it does seem like Will Anderson is the most likely player to be selected.

4. Indianapolis Colts: QB, Will Levis

Graph showing NFL players probability of being picked #4 overall in the draft

While Anthony Richardson is both the favorite to go #3 overall and #4 overall, the market-implied mock draft takes the most likely player at each spot, which means Richardson is off the board when it is the Indianapolis Colts’ time to select. Will Levis at +175 odds edges out Will Anderson at +200 giving the Colts their hopeful quarterback of the future. 

5. Seattle Seahawks: EDGE, Will Anderson

Graph showing NFL players probability of being picked #5 overall in the draft

With four quarterbacks going in the top four picks here, the waters start to become murkier with the Seattle Seahawks at #5 overall. Alabama’s Will Anderson sits as the favorite at +200 odds with other defensive linemen Jalen Carter and Tyree Wilson not too far behind. While Anderson does have a 26.0% chance to go at this slot, this is the lowest confidence the market has in any pick in the top five.

6. Detroit Lions: DT, Jalen Carter

The Detroit Lions sit at -105 odds to take a defensive lineman with their first selection in the draft. In parallel with that, the Lions have the second-best odds (behind the Chicago Bears) to select Jalen Carter at +400. While there is a lot of uncertainty with this pick, there is direction there for the Lions to take Carter and shore up a team need.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: CB, Devon Witherspoon

The market has the Raiders most likely position to be drafted as quarterback at +200, but with the top four quarterbacks off the board, cornerback at +225 is the next choice for them. Devon Witherspoon has -145 odds to be the first corner taken, which surpasses Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez at the top. 

8. Atlanta Falcons: EDGE, Tyree Wilson

The Falcons have +125 odds to draft either a defensive lineman or cornerback at #8. With Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson having +1000 odds to be the first defender selected and Christian Gonzalez sitting at +1500, the market seems to believe that Wilson will go higher in the draft. This leads the Falcons to select him at this spot.

9. Chicago Bears: OT, Paris Johnson Jr.

The Bears most likely position to take in the first round is offensive lineman at -180 odds. Paris Johnson Jr. sits as the favorite to be the first offensive lineman taken with -130 odds, which slots him as likely to be taken by Chicago.

10. Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE, Myles Murphy

The Eagles have uncertainty present at their selection, which makes their pick and the rest of the draft difficult to project. The market tells us defensive lineman is the most likely position to be selected by the Eagles at -120 odds with cornerback following at +275. However, once Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, and Tyree Wilson are selected, the Eagles may look to trade back (which is consistent with their tendency to do so).

Clemson’s Myles Murphy has the 6th highest odds to be taken of any defensive player, and with the top four off the board, the market believes the Eagles are less likely to take a corner in Christian Gonzalez and might lean towards Murphy instead.

As mentioned earlier, the most likely option for the Eagles at pick #10 is trading back to accumulate more draft picks from a team that is keen on one of the players remaining at this spot. Because of this, it is much tougher to forecast the rest of the draft. So for now, a top 10 can be put together from the market odds with more information to follow over the coming weeks.

Market-derived mock draft table showing list of NFL players ranked in order by probability of being picked.

 

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