The Explosive Play Report, NFL Week 3: Make the Case for Base, Andy Dalton, and a Hook and Ladder

The deal here is simple. I watch every 15+ yard run, pass, and scramble, and tell you what it means about how teams are creating explosive plays as they fight on in the never-ending battle between offense and defense.

Jump to:

• Theme of the Week: Make the Case for Base
• Explosive Player of the Week: Andy Dalton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
• Play of the Week + Design of the Week: Ben Johnson, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
• How Many Explosive Plays Has Each Offense Created?

Theme of the Week: Make the Case for Base

You’ve heard it all.

Points are down. Touchdowns have disappeared. Offenses are struggling. Defenses are winning. The safeties are too high, the sky is falling, and something must be done to put a stop to our national nightmare. Today, we launch a campaign for a different path forward with the goal of creating explosive plays based on what the Week 3 film showed us. Today, we Make the Case for Base.

Make the Case for Base was founded on the tenet that it is more efficient to pass the ball on 1st and 2nd down against base defenses that only have four defensive backs on the field instead of passing against five defensive back nickel looks. From numbers provided by SumerDaily host Sam Bruchhaus, the difference in efficiency between early down passes against base defenses and early down passes against nickel defenses is equivalent to the difference between an MVP quarterback’s numbers and a middle of the road quarterback’s numbers. It is important to note that these numbers are from the small sample of 2024 and would reverse a less severe but still opposite trend from 2023. With that, offenses can try to persuade the defense into using base personnel based on down, distance, and the players on the field.

Defenses do have agency here, and they can choose to have nickel personnel on the field for every single snap. Team-by-team tendency evaluation can shine a light on which defenses are more likely to match an offense’s 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) and 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) with base defense. Defenses want to match the offense, but more modern defenses are happy to stay in a nickel defense where an offense has worse pass catching options for only potential marginal gains elsewhere.

Multiple offenses were able to create explosive passing plays on early downs after they Made the Case for Base in Week 3. Offenses can trot out heavier personnel that replaces a receiver with a tight end, a fullback, or even an offensive lineman to convince the defense that they should respond by adding an extra run stopping player to the field. The heavier personnel doesn’t have to be used to run the ball, it only has to remove the dreaded fifth defensive back from the board. With only four defensive backs on the field, the defense has less coverage flexibility, less quality coverage players, and less of a chance against the pass.

The Bills offense, which is leading the entire league in EPA/play, has evolved into a personnel diverse unit. One way they convince defenses to get into base defense against Josh Allen is by adding a sixth offensive linemen to the huddle. With just two receivers on the field, the defense may use base personnel out of fear for how they can play against the ninth best rush unit by EPA/play. Against the Jaguars, the Bills brought out a sixth linemen and gave a heavy run look to help open up space for Keon Coleman to run away from a cornerback on the way to six points:

Bills bring out a 6th offensive linemen and the Jaguars match it in base on this touchdown pic.twitter.com/nHWJR3ofdo

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 26, 2024

The Lions are another team that Makes the Case for Base as their rush EPA/play is actually higher than their pass EPA/play to this point in the season, due in part to some costly turnovers. The Lions also happen to use the highest percentage of 12 personnel on early downs across the league. In Week 3, they were able to convince the Cardinals to bring out their base defense against a 12 personnel look and used play action on the way to an early down explosive where the defense sent five rushers and had less players in coverage:

pic.twitter.com/R6V0kanc3h

— Even 72 Bracket Triple Clip (@Evn72BrktTrClip) September 26, 2024

The Eagles are recent entrants to the Make the Case for Base club as an injury to star wide receiver A.J. Brown gave them more reason to use 12 personnel against the Saints. Early on, Kellen Moore sent out two tight ends and the Saints matched it with four linemen, three linebackers, and four defensive backs. Moore combined a motion into a stack alignment, an underneath route, and some traffic for DeVonta Smith to create this explosive play:

pic.twitter.com/wKucMxDzXm

— Even 72 Bracket Triple Clip (@Evn72BrktTrClip) September 26, 2024

Again, defenses are the last mover here. They can opt to play nickel to every offensive personnel grouping, and we are seeing that behavior at an increasing rate. Offenses that replace a receiver with a tight end will see a drop off in pass catching talent at a position while the gains in the run game may be smaller than the team hopes for. Even then, in Week 3 teams were able to earn favorable looks by swindling the defense through personnel usage on the way to explosive pass plays. Let’s just not think too much about what the Eagles base defense did to the Saints offense.

Explosive Player of the Week: Andy Dalton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers

Andy Dalton has lived many football lives. As a high school senior in Texas, he led the Katy Tigers all the way to the state finals. Dalton then led the TCU Horned Frogs to their modern prominence with a 12-1 season followed by a 13-0 season. In the NFL, Dalton has three pro bowls and has worn a Bengals, Cowboys, Bears, Saints, and Panthers jersey. None of that prepared me for what we saw from Dalton on Sunday against the Raiders.

After Dave Canales made the move to bench Bryce Young, Andy Dalton was up to bat for the winless Panthers. He hit a home run against the blitz, against man coverage, and off play action. Dalton had a low time to throw and was able to take advantage of Diontae Johnson getting open over the middle, but also made tough throws into tight windows on the way to a big win:

Andy Dalton made some nice throws in the Panthers first win of the season against the Raiders pic.twitter.com/iLZH0FXIsg

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 23, 2024

There was strong competition for Explosive Player of the Week this week, but Dalton’s situation deserves recognition. He started the week as the backup quarterback and then lit up the scoreboard. He also made the Panthers offense look viable in a muddied NFC South race.

Honorable Mentions: Jauan Jennings, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott

Play of the Week + Design of the Week: Ben Johnson, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Here is the NFL Pro play-by-play description for this week’s Play of the Week and our first double award winner for Design of the Week:

(:36) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to A.St. Brown to ARZ 20 for 1 yard. Lateral to J.Gibbs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Here is the ESPN play-by-play description for the same play:

(0:29 – 2nd) Jahmyr Gibbs 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick).

Jahmyr Gibbs ended the day with 0 receptions, 20 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown because of this play:

pic.twitter.com/yGeRq7tVZg

— Even 72 Bracket Triple Clip (@Evn72BrktTrClip) September 26, 2024

This design is inspired because it adds a twist to a time-honored classic. The hook and lateral play (sometimes called hook and ladder for whatever odd reason) involves a hook or curl route from a receiver and then a lateral to another player. The below example has a short hook to the left side of the screen before a less than perfect lateral to the left tackle:

Hook and Ladder to the LT pic.twitter.com/JVDAfVthqR

— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 12, 2021

The below example is from two seasons ago where the Lions threw a quick pass to the slot before a toss back to the running back swinging out of the backfield. Maybe hitch and pitch should replace hook and ladder/lateral?

pic.twitter.com/9d1gQINLXi

— Even 72 Bracket Triple Clip (@Evn72BrktTrClip) September 26, 2024

What made the Lions play unique was it actually used an in route from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs took a delayed release through the line of scrimmage before getting the ball. This gave the defense all the more reason to crash down on St. Brown running across the field before he hot potatoed the throw.

St. Brown deserves the most credit here. It barely looks like he is catching the ball and instead feels like he is volleyballing it back to the Lions speedy running back. Credit the design and the execution as this one goes down in the Explosive Play Report record books.

Honorable Mention: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

The Numbers

The Packers keep the explosive play crown as Matt LaFleur put together another great game plan against the Titans. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys took the lead on 15+ yard pass plays in a loss to the Ravens and still not have had a 15+ yard run.