Market-Inferred Top 10 Mock Draft

by SumerSports|April 20, 2023


Last week, we used betting market odds to infer how the first ten picks of the 2023 NFL Draft could unfold. This used the wisdom of the crowd approach as betting markets set their odds for each draft pick based on bets by certain bettors as well as the information they are receiving. Given the fluidity of the market and how quickly the odds change as the draft nears, it was time to update the market-inferred mock draft of the top 10 picks using odds from DraftKings as of the early afternoon of April 20th.

This is meant to be predictive of how the market sees the draft unfolding. Each graph will have the vig-free implied probability of each player that is likely to go at that pick. The probabilities will also have any previously selected players removed.

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Graph showing probability of being picked #1 overall

After starting as the favorite before the Carolina Panthers had traded up to #1 overall and then being second behind Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young has returned to being the heavy favorite to go first overall at 73.2%. Bryce Young to the Panthers is the strongest the market feels about any pick.

2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Graph showing probability of being picked #2 overall

With the Panthers taking Bryce Young, the market sees the Texans leaning towards another Alabama star in edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. At +150 odds, Anderson Jr. is currently edging out Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson and Kentucky’s Will Levis with Stroud not too far behind.

3. Tennessee Titans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Graph showing probability of being picked #3 overall

C.J. Stroud currently sits ahead of Anthony Richardson as the favorite to get selected third overall. With the Arizona Cardinals currently holding this selection and already having a franchise quarterback in hand with Kyler Murray, the market is inferring that they will not be making this pick. This requires some projection, and the Titans have been linked as a possible team that could trade up to select their quarterback of the future here.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Graph showing probability of being picked #4 overall

The Colts might have more quarterbacks available to them than previously thought if the Texans decide to go defense with their pick. Will Levis is the current leader in the clubhouse to go at this spot with +150 odds while C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are at +250 and +425 respectively. With Stroud already gone, Levis has a 45.2% probability conditional on how the first three picks fall.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Graph showing probability of being picked #5 overall

While Will Anderson Jr. is the favorite at this spot with +200 odds, he was already taken by the Texans earlier, which means Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson becomes the front runner to get drafted by the Seahawks. The market strongly believes Seattle will go defensive line at this spot with Wilson having an implied 28.4% probability and Georgia’s Jalen Carter being at 24.9%.

6. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Graph showing probability of being picked #6 overall

Since trading away Jeff Okudah, the market has believed the Detroit Lions are going to key in on a corner at #6 overall. Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon currently sits as the significant favorite at -120 odds with Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez at +350. If the Lions choose not to go corner, Jalen Carter is up next up with a 17.4% chance.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Graph showing probability of being picked #7 overall

With the Lions taking Witherspoon, Gonzalez becomes the favorite to go #7 overall to the Raiders with a 25.1% probability. The market also sees offensive tackle being in play for the Raiders with Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. at 20.9% each.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Graph showing probability of being picked #8 overall

The market has shifted to believe Texas’ all-star running back Bijan Robinson will go higher up in the draft than previously thought. That comes to fruition here with the Atlanta Falcons taking him at #8. Georgia’s Nolan Smith and Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness are also in play with a 20.1% chance each. 

9. Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Graph showing probability of being picked #9 overall

With Skoronski and Johnson Jr. both having a 20.7% chance of being selected by the Bears, this pick also requires some projection. Dipping into the market of first offensive lineman drafted, Skoronski sits as the favorite at -125 odds with Johnson Jr. at +120 odds. Since there has not been an offensive lineman taken yet, we can use that to slot in Skoronski at #9.

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Graph showing probability of being picked #10 overall

To round out the top 10 of the draft, Johnson Jr. sits as the favorite to be taken in this spot. Given the Eagles’ tendency to trade back, it cannot be said for certain if they will be the ones selecting him. However, the market does believe that he has a 24.2% to go at 10 with Skoronski off the board.


Related Posts

Scouting Interior Defensive Linemen: Key Traits, Development, and Players to Watch

July 23, 2024

Brandon Aiyuk’s Trade Request: Stats, the 49ers’ Strategy, and Contract Comparisons

July 16, 2024

The New NFL Kickoff: Breaking Down a Season of XFL Kickoffs to See What We Should Expect

July 15, 2024

The Class Play – College Football 25: Best Teams to Choose for Your Dynasty Mode

June 25, 2024