Be sure to check out the FREE 2025 SumerSports NFL Draft Guide and catch the SumerSports live show covering the draft starting at 7 ET Thursday night. Join former General Manager Thomas Dimitroff and the Sumer crew for unique insights into every pick.
This mock draft is meant to be from an analytics standpoint. We will comment on what we think will likely happen given the consensus mock drafts, but adhere to analytics concepts such as positional importance, pick surplus value, team needs, and player development timelines. The concepts are important from a roster building standpoint given their historical hit rates and value from a cap and contract perspective too.
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
The Titans have made their plans clear – barring a truly shocking turn of events, Cam Ward will play for Tennessee this fall. After moving some late round capital up to take a swing on Will Levis, the Titans are again in the market for the most important position on an NFL roster. Cam Ward grades out as the top quarterback in the class this year, a creative thrower who can navigate the pocket and use his big arm to get the ball into tight windows. He was among the best in the nation in deep accuracy, short accuracy, and overall accuracy according to SumerSports’s draft guide. He also received badges for being in the Top 25 of all quarterbacks in production and overall quarterback assessment, the Producer and Field General badges. Ward is a dynamic playmaker who will come in with the weight of the Titans’ franchise on his shoulders, but also with a very impressive toolkit and a high ceiling.
2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
From a surplus value perspective, going to Abdul Carter here might get the slight edge given the 5th year option price point to pick cost. To play this out: Take Aidan Hutchinson’s projected fifth year option as $20.86M (2 overall in 2022 draft) as the potential APY pick value and a pick cost $17.52M for the 2nd overall pick at netting a $3M surplus value per year ($3M over a rookie contract would equate to $12M savings). All reports out of Cleveland have Travis Hunter, which would still be a value pick when you compared to the range of outcomes:
The ceiling at corner would be Sauce Gardner’s price point of $20.1M (still net positive of pick cost)
Garrett Wilson ($16M- $21M 5th year option range, positive if 1+ pro bowls)
Cleveland has indicated they view Hunter as more of a WR1, which makes sense from a pure contract value point of view. Although they have indicated he’s a unicorn and can play both sides of the ball. Satisfying two of your top 4 needs with a player who can play both WR/CB in a draft that is also deep at pass rush, is probably the more +EV decision.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
The true analytical move here would be to trade out of this position, but with the consensus being lower for available quarterbacks, suitors are scarce. In light of the market, and with Hunter off the board, the Giants take the best player available in the generational Abdul Carter, pairing him with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns to have one of the strongest/deepest EDGE rooms in the nation. Carter holds badges in the SumerSports draft guide for converting pressures into sacks or throw aways (Late Winner), disruption (Chaos Creator), and first-step quickness (Fast Start). His ability to line up in different alignments, create havoc, and force a defense to account for his position stands out and contributes to him being one of the most valuable prospects in this year’s draft.
4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OL, LSU
New England was top 10 in sack % allowed in 2024 needing to start to upgrade their offensive line with their QB of the future (Drake Maye) not commanding the offense. Will Campbell seems like an obvious need here. Given the nature of an offensive line within a weak link system, finding guys who do well against the blitz or stunt, 3% pressure rate allowed against the blitz seems like an good cornerstone piece to build on. Josh McDaniels has been knowned to run outside zone in the past, which makes Campbell a good scheme fit as well (majority of zone run blocking in college)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
Jacksonville ranked 31st in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) last season, 27th against the run. Maason Smith could use a partner, and Mason Graham from Michigan slots in here nicely as a big bodied, disruptive interior lineman who could change the face of this Jacksonville front. Graham excels at run-stuffing, receiving a Run Stuffer and a Terminator badge from Sumer’s draft guide. He also creates havoc in both the run and pass games, ranking in the top 15% of college football in pressure rate and tackle for loss rate. Jacksonville has mentioned their categories for drafting players under new GM James Gladstone, and Graham checks off so many of their boxes, a standout in physical and mental toughness.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Lot of signals have indicated that Ashton Jeanty is the selection here. At #6 overall, a Jeanty selection would put him as a top 5 APY earner amongst all RBs, which is a big bet to ensure that he is truly top 5 RB in the league, without taking a snap. Given the approach to drafting premium positions and the need of Las Vegas at WR (starters include Tre Tucker, Jakobi Meyers, and Kristian Wilkerson) to pair with Brock Bowers. McMillan could get immediate production with Geno Smith at the helm. One thing that stands out is McMillan had a high target share while being pressed a lot, which could be attractive as a decoy receiver to make teams decide if they should guard McMillen or Bowers. Membou could be a consideration here too to upgrade at RT.
7. New York Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
It’s anyone’s guess as to the direction the Jets take with this pick, but it’s hard to go wrong adding another piece to protect newly signed quarterback Justin Fields. Armand Membou was the best right tackle in the SEC last year, quietly putting together one of the most solid seasons of anyone in this year’s draft class. He allowed pressures on just 2.1% of his pass blocking snaps and zero sacks. When opponents blitzed, he remained unphased, allowing pressures on only 2.3% of snaps as well. Running behind Membou, the Missouri Tigers ranked in the 92nd percentile of yards before contacting last season. A quick player with a high football IQ, Membou could be a franchise staple, adding some much-needed stability at a premium position for the Jets.
8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
The overwhelming majority of mocks has Walker to the Panthers who are looking to upgrade their offense and fill a pass rushing void with Brian Burns departing to the New York Giants last season. The versatility of Walker is attractive given his ability to fit to multiple spots in the box (see how Frankie Luvu was used for the Panthers). From an analytics perspective, Jalon Walker is great on early down pressures generated, which translated well from college to pro.
9. New Orleans Saints: Walter Nolan, DL, Ole Miss
The Saints are making this pick not really for the 2025 season, but for the 2026 season. Handcuffed by the reality of their current cap situation, the Saints are in dire need of some creative ways to instill quality players at key positions and to keep costs down. Taking Walter Nolan here at 9th overall fills a big need at a premium position and beefs up their defense as they look to the quarterback class of 2026 to find their franchise guy. Rather than reaching for Sanders or Dart at QB, the Saints can build through the trenches and take their pick at QB next season. Nolen received a Run Stuffer badge in the draft guide and ranks in the top 15 with a 3.8% tackle for loss rate. The value of a disruptive interior lineman has been made clear in recent years, as the ability to defend against the rush and put pressure on the pass protection can create issues at all levels for opposing offenses, giving a much-needed boost to the secondary.
10. Chicago Bears: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
The analytics decision may be to go Shemar Stewart or Kelvin Banks here to draft at a premium position. With the active investment in IOL this offseason (Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson) and the young OTs on the outside, Banks may not be the best selection. Shemar Stewart could be a high ceiling selection as a freak edge rusher as the Eagles have shown its never too bad to invest in Edge depth. On the topic of the Eagles, they have shown once you have an investment in the OL, a high-end RB could transform the overall offense (as we saw with Saquon) and that’s where Ashton Jeanty (regardless of the surplus value discussion mentioned earlier) would be a +EV move. It is understated Jeanty’s value as a pass catcher, which he was great in 2023 prior to his 2024 breakout rushing season. This could give Caleb Williams an easy escape option that could help the offense in 2025. Jeanty feels like Gibbs + Montgomery combined gives Ben Johnson a new dimension to the offense.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Selecting Jadhae Barron here raises both ceiling and floor of this defense as they look to bounce back from a down year. The Thorpe Award winner excels in zone coverage and ranked in the 86th percentile in Pass Breakup last season. The 49ers have an option to pick Warren as successor to Kittle in this spot, but the versatile Barron fills a more immediate key position need and this is a deep TE class.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Kelvin Banks, OL, Texas
With Jeanty and McMillan gone, I think they should trade back with Miami given their need for OL and Kelvin Banks is still on the board. This is the portion of the draft where I could see a team trying to trade back into the first round to get one of the remaining QBs as well. Getting a QB in the first round adds the value of the 5th year option which gives a team an additional year of surplus value. The value of IOL contracts has surged in recent years, making their surplus value of selection greater as we approach mid-late draft selections. Banks could play inside and outside and with the news of Tyron Smith retiring and getting the local Texas product stay to stay home, with a player with similar athleticism as Smith (8 screen blocks last year) could be a nice transition piece.
13. Miami Dolphins: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
In an ideal world for the Miami Dolphins, offensive line prospects haven’t been picked over so aggressively by pick 13. The Miami Dolphins may need to trade up here to get IOL help if Banks is likely to be picked or trade back to be in the range for Booker or Zabel. Both of those picks would be a dramatic overreach at 13, so the Dolphins here go with the fluid corner Will Johnson to bolster their defensive secondary. With the Jalen Ramsey trade rumors, finding an elite athletic freak in Will Johnson could give them leverage in the Ramsey trade discussions.
14. Indianapolis Colts: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are in their 30s so from an aging curve standpoint starting to draft for their eventual backfill would be an optimal strategy here. Given the depth at IDL in this class, that can be grabbed at later rounds in multiple picks (wouldn’t be surprised if Derrick Harmon as a selection here for that reason). The Colts may end up choosing Tyler Warren here but the development cycle of TEs historical makes that risky (although we have seen success of Bowers and Kincaid in recent years). With the selection of Laitu Latu last year, adding another young edge opposite of him with in Mykel Williams, who has above average early down pressure ability can help a Colts defense that was bottom 10 in EPA / Play in Passing situations and bottom 10 in sack %
15. Atlanta Falcons: Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Much in line with ATL’s previous draft where they selected the highest surplus value player – Penix – ATL goes premium again with the SEC stalwart Shemar Stewart out of Texas A&M. While Stewart is knocked for his lack of “production” in college, his 13.2% pressure rate against quality offenses ranks in the Top 15 in college football, and his film demonstrates just how disruptive his presences is. Stewart is capable of elevating an entire defensive line in pass rush, something Atlanta could desperately use, and his run stopping ability will play on multiple downs in the league.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
This may be draft the best player left on the board situation for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have hit on their picks with Ossenfort as the new GM since 2023, so they have to feel confident in their evaluation process for this to be a trade back situation. I could easily see them trading with someone looking to trade up to get Jaxson Dart at this spot to get ahead of the Steelers in the draft. Cardinals went and grabbed Josh Sweat this offseason and have Zaven Collins and B.J. Ojulari on the opposite end. If no trade opportunities arise, I expect to continue to get younger at the pass rush spot at get Mike Green. Given almost all of his reps are in 2pt stance, he’d be a nice rotational speed rusher for the Cardinals.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
Paying Burrow, Higgins, and Chase will mean that the Bengals will need focus resources on cost-controllable defensive talent in the draft this year. Kenneth Grant is a piece to build around for many years in the league. His “terminator” badge as a formidable run stopper allows Hendrickson to continue to focus on pass rush.
18. Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama
The Seahawks need some help at the interior offensive line, they have historically been big on guys who have done well at the Senior Bowl, which could have Grey Zabel here. I think Tyler Booker would get the nods based on the quality of defensive competition faced and that shows in percentile of snaps in heavy boxes faced in the run game, which will appeal to Seattle’s scheme.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Jihaad Campbell is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft given his versatility. He could very well end up being an edge rusher in the NFL given his speed. His “blanket” badge for elite coverage ability and run stopping ability gives the Bucs yet another playmaker on defense. Normally Linebackers are not a great first round selection from a positional value standpoint, but Campbell adds value to various phases increasing his value relative to his strict position. One of his best games on film came in this very stadium against USF this past season and could be a foreshadow to his future home.
20. Denver Broncos: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
From an analytics perspective, drafting a TE in the first round isn’t typically optimal given their development cycle. Tyler Warren may be the exception given his role versatility at Penn State and the potential pairing with Sean Payton makes this a scheme fit (i.e. big slot receiver considerations). The 5th year option gives a buffer for an additional year of development too.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
The Steelers are signaling they want QB in the draft, letting Russell Wilson and Justin Fields sign elsewhere, and dragging their feet with Aarond Rodgers. At pick 21, they have their shot at a franchise QB in Shedeur Sanders, who has elite accuracy and playmaking skills. While Sanders might not be a finished product, his raw talent and then surplus value from a cost controlled young QB give Pittsburgh more foundation to build into the next era.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon
Coleston Loveland may be the selection given the Michigan connection, but Harbaugh loves building the trenches and Harmon (a player he was familiar with when he was at Michigan State) adds high value in the Jesse Minter defense. Harmon was able to get pressure at the A-B-C gap at an elite rate.
23. Green Bay Packers: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
While the Wide Receiver corps could use an upgrade, there is plenty of stock in round two for the Packers to find a productive player. In the first, they’ll go premium position, taking an edge rusher for the second time in three years to shore up the position. Ezeiruaku is a nice scheme fit for the Packers, as most of his pressures come from a 3 point stance, allowing him to plug in and add another dimension to the defensive line.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
The Vikings could be in a trade back situation given the top need is secondary and plenty of options available at this point in the draft. Long armed Trey Amos gives Brian Flores another weapon to use and puts him on an island in the Vikings defense.
25. Houston Texans: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
After trading away Laramy Tunsil this offseason, the Texans are committed to getting younger and more affordable across the offensive line. Simmons is a good cornerstone OL piece to build around. Simmons has earned badges for Brick Wall (pass protection techinque) and Bulldozer (run blocking effectiveness), demonstrating his consistency and versatility in all phases of the game.
26. Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
With Cooper Kupp gone, Golden is a speedster (4.29 40-speed) to pair with Puka Nacua that continues to get the Rams younger (21.7 years of age on draft day) given the Rams are already the top 5 youngest team in the NFL. This gives Stafford a deep option as Golden is above average in targets beyond 10 yards in depth
27. Baltimore Ravens: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
The Ravens usually draft the best player on the consensus big board consistently. Zabel fits that mold for them as they continue to get younger on the offensive line. Raven drafted Rosengarten last year as a swing OL and Zabel also fits the mold of another swing OL.
28. Detroit Lions: James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
The Lions traded for Zachariah Smith at the deadline last year with Hutchinson down and saw a majority of their front seven hit the IR throughout the season. Getting a speed rusher like Pearce who has experience in 2pt and 3pt on the edge to pair with Hutchinson feels like one of the first-round steals.
29. Washington Commanders: Ben Morrison, CB, Notre Dame
The Commanders may end up trading back here given their spending through free agency and trades this offseason. Morrison could be a plan for the future with Lattimore at a different point in his career.
30. Buffalo Bills: Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina
The Bills locked up Christian Benford and Taron Johnson (more of a nickel) for several years. Adding Shavon Revel Jr., a corner who has elite ability in press, zone, and coverage gives the defense another plug and play defender to build depth in the secondary.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
The Eagles were able to apply a lot of pressure in the Super Bowl with very few blitz packages, highlighting the need for stability on Kansas City’s offensive line. The Kansas City Chiefs look to add yet a promising OT in Conerly to anchor the line for the future.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
This could be another trade back position for the Eagles for a team looking to get back into the first round for an extra year of control for a player (i.e. QB). Eagles will draft to consensus here and choose the next best player available and that’d be Malaki Starks, who is elite ability in split safety coverage feels like a scheme fit for Fangio’s defense.
