When we passed midseason, I was of the mind that the following weeks would’ve made things clearer as we moved along. However, just like shaking a hot sauce bottle before using, Week 12 seems to have only made our path forward towards the playoffs murkier. This week’s Hot Takes concern one of the most interesting divisional races in recent memory and a sophomore slump. I try my best to read between the slushiness to find the deeper meaning. Speaking of deeper meaning, I also break down an ESPN advertisement for a little extra zing going into Thanksgiving.
Tapatío Salsa Picante: No One Wants to Win the NFC West
This California Hot Sauce is a West Coast Staple. A staple is what we really need right now in the NFC West.
The NFC West is the most intriguing division in the NFL right now in my eyes. It contains four teams, each with a quality starting level quarterback and multiple weapons on both sides of the ball. The problem is that they are all hovering right around a 50% winning percentage. To make matters murkier, they have immense variance week-to-week in their performance.
Let’s start with the Cardinals and Seahawks, who faced off in Week 12.
The Cardinals came into that game led by a quality offense with four key stars: Kyler Murray, James Connor, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride. They were 10th in expected points added per play and 7th in success rate offensively. It seemed as if they would take advantage of a Seattle defense which was still adjusting to life under new Head Coach Mike McDonald. Seattle ranked 24th in expected points added per rush, and so it looked like the (at the time) division leading Cardinals would attack with James Connor.
Instead, the game was a 16-6 slosh-fest, despite only turning the ball over once. The Seahawks defense stood tall in this game, led primarily by the 10-year veteran Leonard Williams up front. Williams had an absolutely dominant game both in the counting stats and the advanced analytics.
He racked up:
- 2.5 sacks
- 3 tackles for loss
- A pass deflection
- 4 quarterback hits in the game.
All of this contributed to him having a 98th percentile game in both the pass rushing and run stuffing phases according to SumerSports’ advanced metrics. While both defenses showed out, it absolutely muddied the picture for what we should think about both Arizona and Seattle moving forward.
Moving on to the more established teams coming into the season, both the Rams and the 49ers were knocked on their behinds by powerful opposing run offenses. Collectively, the teams gave up 483 yards rushing to the Packers and Eagles. The lead backs for the Packers and the Eagles, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, racked up 5 touchdowns as a pair.
The stories were slightly different though. The 49ers continue to ail from injuries. Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa missed Week 12, which caused major issues for the 49ers on both sides of the ball. In the case of the Rams, their weaknesses coming into the season cropped up again, with the offensive line allowing five sacks and the young defense getting rolled by the talented Philadelphia offensive line.
This division is currently very confusing. Each team has immense star power but glaring flaws. I can’t quite put them in the same bucket as the NFC South though, where one injury seems like it could tank any given team. These teams still feel like they can go on a run. But injuries (in the case of the 49ers and Rams) and inconsistencies (in the case of all of the teams) have held them back at different points this year. Whoever can catch a whiff of steadiness going into the late season will likely grab this division and head into an up-for-grabs NFC with a higher probability of success than their record indicates.
Luling City Market BBQ Sauce: C.J. Stroud is having a Jayson Tatum Sophomore Year.
This Houston-based market is known for its BBQ sauce that packs a punch in terms of spice. This take concerns a quarterback that is not having the sweetest year but will likely be fine in the long run.
C.J. Stroud had a rough game against the 3-8 Tennessee Titans in Week 12. While he did not have another game where he went under 50% in completion percentage, he did:
- Throw two interceptions
- Allow 4 sacks
- Have a QBR of 23.7
This is yet another down game for last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. The advanced metrics show some clear regression in his play from last year. Stroud is below average in every metric except for one that SumerSports’ advanced metric team tracks for passers. This includes being in the lower third in decision making, sack avoidance, big throws, and accuracy for the year.
I am taking a stand in saying that though this may look grim, I think it is more of a sophomore slump than anything. Primarily, I think the offensive line, which has also plagued a run game that added Joe Mixon, has really hurt his chances of success.
Of the offensive linemen who have played a reasonable number of snaps, only Laremy Tunsil is above average in both the running and the passing game. While he has been quite good, most of the other linemen have been sub-thirtieth percentile in at least one role.
I can’t help but draw a parallel between this scenario and Jayson Tatum’s sophomore year with the NBA’s Boston Celtics.
Much like Stroud, Tatum hit his stride earlier than expected in his rookie year, which led to a standout showing in the playoffs that set him up for assumptions of an all-NBA level season the next year. But the regression came for Tatum especially as his teammates Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward struggled to fit into the team, leading to an earlier than expected exit and a seeming downward arrow for the young star.
But alas, they both had a clear pairing with another young star that made the future look bright. Just as Tatum had Jaylen Brown’s growing stardom by his side, Stroud has Nico Collins, who put up yet another game where he ranked above the 80th percentile in both route running and performance after the catch.
All that being said, Stroud is still young and, crucially, the Texans still have the benefit of his rookie contract. With a few reconfigurations and continued chemistry growth between Stroud and Collins, I’d expect a return to form for the young passer in due time.
Kermit Ruffins We Partyin’ Traditional Style: The College Football Playoff Music Supervisor Deserves a Raise.
Kermit Ruffins is an award-winning trumpeteer. A founder of the groundbreaking Rebirth Brass Band and lead of the BBQ Swingers, Kermit is known to bring a good time and some good food to any party on Frenchman Street. This take is about the beauty of music interplaying with sports.
There’s an old quote in the entertainment industry about actors always wanting to be musicians, and musicians always wanting to be actors. If the Celebrity Row at Madison Square Garden during a New York Knicks game is any indication, they all want to be sports stars.
One of my favorite things about sports has always been how they are able to bring everyone together. A quality sports game brings together elements of physical, mental, and spiritual. For that reason, in my mind, it is the ultimate form of community. Whether pump up music, intro music, or the Super Bowl Halftime Show (which could very well have 1,500 words devoted to it when the time comes given recent events), music plays an integral part of football, in particular.
So that’s why when something is truly surprising and nearly breath taking, I must give it major kudos and a spot in my “Hot Sauce Hot Takes”.
ESPN has begun promoting the college football playoffs on its networks, and it has used a quality deep cut to do it that, thematically, is just perfect.
The song is “Les Fleurs” by Minnie Riperton. You may know both the art and the artist better in other ways than her records.
Minnie Riperton, notably, is comedian and actress Maya Rudolph’s mother. The song (nor album it was on), did not, by my research, make immense waves at the time. Instead, it is best known for its usages in film and television. It has been used by auteurs such as Paul Thomas Anderson, Donald Glover, and most notably Jordan Peele.
Add to that list the good people behind the marketing of the College Football Playoff. While the song itself extols the virtues of the Flower Power 1960s. It certainly has its parallels with the excitement of the end of the college football season.
First, let us not miss the direct throughput between the title (“Les Fleurs” means “The Flowers” when translated from French) to the culmination of the season with bowl games. After all, five of the New Year’s Six are named after various flowers and fruits, most notably the “Grandaddy of ‘Em All”, the Rose Bowl.
But even so, the climax of the song still mirrors the jubilation: “Ring all the bells, sing and tell the people everywhere that the flower has come!” That sounds a lot like college football fans on a Saturday morning getting excited for a big-time bowl game! Even the instrumentation, which utilizes a heavy brass section and builds a massive crescendo, reflects the anxiety walking into the stadium before a big game.
Though that may be a little bit of a stretch, we often forget that people put their hard work and ingenuity into little things like reminding us of what network the College Football Playoff games will be on. Well, it will not be lost on me! I appreciate you ESPN Marketing folks!
