In a memorable episode of the fantasy television program Game of Thrones, Daenerys Targaryen takes control of a ruthless army by “trading” her dragon. Little to her fellow trader's knowledge, Daenerys speaks the native language of both the army and the dragon, so she ends up completely taking over the situation.
At Sumer, we seek to help you become like Daenerys, a person who knows the uncovered secrets, names to know, and tricks when it comes to fantasy (football, of course).
For 2025 fantasy drafts, our analysts have put their heads together to bring you into the know on how to dominate your league.
Wide Receivers: Tier 1 is Substantially Deeper than Prior Years
The most important item to understand for your 2025 fantasy drafts is that the pool of dominant wide receivers is NOT scarce this year. Think of the certified WR1s: Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr., CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers. Add in ascendant players like Ladd McConkey and Drake London, and all the sudden the potential pool of players with the coveted Target Share-Yards Per Route Run Perfect Pair could fill up its own round and a half in a two-team league. As a result, this year there is probably less "value over the worst starter” for highly drafted wide receivers than in previous years.
Here’s a few key names to watch:
Puka Nacua
If healthy, Puka Nacua could be the top wide receiver in the league this year. With an outstanding Top 3 performance in Target Share, Yards Per Route Run, and Receiving SumerScore, Puka projects to absolutely dominate defenses even alongside newcomer Davante Adams.
Ladd McConkey
Keep an ear out for rumors regarding Ladd McConkey’s target share throughout training camp and the preseason. If McConkey can get to his target share ranking in the mid to low teens amongst wideouts, it could vault him into the true fantasy elite.
Running Backs: This is the Year of the Hero.
In recent years, the “Zero RB Strategy” has become in vogue.
2025 is not the year for that, especially given the supply of top tier wide receivers.
In SumerSports’ data scientists’ view, there is a large break in the projections between the top tier tailbacks and the second bananas.
So, who is in that top tier?
Target Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs with your most premium picks. Other top tier players to target with your first rounders (or maybe even your second rounders if you can manage it) include Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and (newcomer to the list!) Bucky Irving.
A caveat to this, as discussed in the SumerSports Show’s Sticky Stats series, is that running back’s performance year-to-year is extremely fickle. However, in the face of the talent at the wide receiver position, the hero running back group's projections as compared to the 20th to 24th expected starters is worth the risk.
Some key names to watch:
Bucky Irving
On average, Bucky Irving has been the 9th RB to come off the board. SumerSports has him as a certified Top 6 running back across fantasy scoring settings. He was the third most efficient running back last year on the ground, alongside being around the 90th percentile in both Rushing SumerScore and Rush Yards Over Expected. His top ranking in Receiving SumerScore for 2024 (amongst players with over 200 snaps) completes his profile as an all-around player who may be still under the radar.
Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey is the biggest boom-or-bust candidate in fantasy football this year.
McCaffrey comes into the year at RB4 according to the consensus PPR cheat sheets, despite having struggled with a debilitating calf/achilles injury last season.
McCaffrey has missed most of the games in 3 of the last 5 seasons. In those two years where he did not miss substantial time, he was an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. The upside for the 29-year-old tailback is as high as it can be. But the floor is literally zero.
In addition to the question about whether he'll stay on the field, we have to wonder how he'll look when he's on it. We track on field athleticism at SumerSports, in the form of Sumer Athleticism Scores. We take his on field play and predict how a play might perform in combine events (40-yard dash, 10-yard split, 20-yard shuttle, 3-cone drill, broad jump, and vertical jump). McCaffrey has been solidly above average in this area for most of his career. Last year, the maximum percentile he was in, across those predictions, was 20th percentile.
Quarterbacks: Lock in on the Rushing Upside
The quarterback position was hit with an influx of rookies in the last two years. That's not really the case this year. Aside from 1 or 2 rookie quarterbacks, most teams will be trotting out players we have seen on an NFL field before, which makes finding immense upside a little bit harder.
In 2025, trust the top tier of rushing quarterbacks. There is a clear Tier 1 (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) and 2 (Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts) here. These are the only four quarterbacks to go over 100 carries last year, and all four helped their team immensely when attacking on the ground. Given all these players were Top 10 in EPA/Play more generally across their play, they are safe bets to be fantasy relevant.
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow was third in total fantasy points last season, so many consider him amongst the top players in the league for next season. The problem is that regression may be in store for Burrow.
Last year was a perfect storm for Burrow's fantasy performance: clean health for Ja’Marr Chase, excellent games from Tee Higgins, and many unique game scripts due to a defense that was 29th in success rate. If any of these items move toward the mean, Burrow’s lack of rushing upside may be exacerbated.
Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy had a major change in his playing style last year. For quarterbacks with over 100 dropbacks and designed rushes, Brock Purdy had the 7th highest scramble rate in the NFL at 8.3%, which was similar to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. In the two years prior to that, he was ranked in the 30s.
On his rushing plays, Purdy generated more expected points added per play than Jalen Hurts.
We rarely see such a massive jump in quarterback dropback decision making, especially at the efficiency profile Purdy was able to generate. Despite that, Purdy only generated 323 rushing yards.
If Purdy’s creative playmaking on the ground is leaned into, it could radically change his fantasy projection.
Tight End: Beware of The Total Point Projection
The tight end position is all-or-nothing in 2025.
There is a great argument that the big three at the position, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride, could score wide receiver-like point totals. But after that drop off, the point projections drop off steadily. How do you manage that?
One path could be that you should target one of those top three players, even if it costs you a top wide receiver. This school of thought finds that, if they score wide receiver level points anyway, the value for these players over the 10th to 12th best tight end is massive for the single tight end slot.
Another path is trying to chase the potential upside of one of the many rookie tight ends (Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Mason Taylor, Terrance Ferguson). Though as some smart folks once said, a rookie tight end is often another team’s star tight end, so it is tough to expect any of these players to recreate Brock Bowers’ league leading performance from last year.
