Market-Inferred Draft Day Top 10 Mock Draft

by Tej Seth|April 27, 2023

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This market-inferred draft uses odds from a betting market, in this case FanDuel, to predict how the NFL draft could unfold. Similar to Grinding the Mocks, the betting market utilizes the wisdom of the crowds approach aggregating information together from many people to set the odds for each draft pick in the top 10. 

With this being the third iteration of the market-inferred mock draft, we can look back at the first version in which the market forecasted four quarterbacks going in the top four. In the second version, Will Anderson Jr. was projected to go second overall and it looked like the Cardinals were going to trade back from third overall. A lot has changed since then, and we can use the odds to get the vig-free probability of the top players going at each spot to see how the draft could unfold on the morning of.

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Bryce Young has been the strong betting favorite to go #1 overall to the Panthers for weeks, and that has not changed despite a viral reddit post about Will Levis going in this spot seemingly boosting his odds. The market still strongly believes Young is the pick to open the draft with a 79.6% probability. 

2. Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The Houston Texans have been the talk of the draft as the media and oddsmakers have not been able to get a great read on what the Texans will do. Will Levis sits at 29.6% to get selected #2 overall with Will Anderson Jr. at 21.6% and Tyree Wilson at 20%.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Despite multiple reports about the Cardinals looking to trade back, the market has come around to the idea of them sticking at pick #3 and taking a top non-quarterback. Will Anderson Jr. sits as the current favorite to go at this spot with a 22.8% chance.

4. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Will Levis is actually the favorite to go #4 overall at +150 odds but give he was also the favorite to go to the Texans at #2. With Levis off the board, Stroud becomes the leader in the clubhouse at 40.1% with Anthony Richardson also lurking at 31.4% of going to the Colts. 

5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Outside of #1 overall, the Seahawks’ pick is the draft slot that the market feels the strongest about. Jalen Carter has a 55.5% chance of being selected at #5 with Anthony Richardson being the next most likely with a 14.4% chance. 

6. Detroit Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

The market does not believe in the Lions taking a quarterback at #6 with Devon Witherspoon leading the way with a 64% probability. Christian Gonzalez and Tyree Wilson all having a higher chance of going at this spot than Anthony Richardson.

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

The market has Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon with the same +300 odds to go to the Raiders at #7 overall but with Witherspoon taken by the Lions, Gonzalez becomes the favorite with a 29.2% probability. Paris Johnson Jr. at 26% is also in play if the Raiders choose to go offensive tackle.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Holding steady on this for the past couple weeks, Bijan Robinson is still the favorite to get selected by the Falcons at #8 overall with a 32% chance. Nolan Smith is also in play at 17.2%

9. Chicago Bears: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

The Chicago Bears at #9 overall seem to be the team where the market is forecasting the first offensive tackle to be taken off the board. Darnell Wright is the leader in the clubhouse at a 20.4% probability with Peter Skoronski and Paris Johnson Jr. at 19.5% each.

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

While the Eagles have a decent chance to trade back here with a lot of top defensive prospects off the board, the market sees whatever team is picking at #10 overall – whether it is the Eagles or someone else – taking Peter Skoronski. 

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