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NFL Week 15 Review: Josh Allen is Unstoppable

Josh Allen is unstoppable, the Eagles passing game is back on track, and Lamar Jackson threw more touchdowns than incompletions. Here's what you need to know from NFL Week 15.
by Shawn Syed|December 16, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: Josh Allen cannot be stopped.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

For some quarterbacks, if the ball isn’t out on time, the defense starts to have an advantage. For other quarterbacks, if the play is extended, the offense has a chance to find success. For Josh Allen, if he starts running around, you are about to witness must see TV.

Josh Allen is the MVP favorite because he can create off schedule, make plays in structure, and is impossible to defend for an entire game. He can make you pay for playing man coverage on the ground, make you pay for playing zone coverage through the air, and make you pay for stepping on the football field by erasing free runners.

On Sunday, the Bills hung 48 points on the NFC leading Detroit Lions with a 99th percentile offensive EPA/play and 95th percentile success rate. Detroit was able to fight back and score 42 points after going down by 14, but punts on the first two drives of the game and a lost fumble later on proved to be too much to overcome. Detroit is used to being the team that requires opponents to play perfect to compete, but Buffalo was in the driver’s seat at Ford Field.

With Buffalo’s offense firing on all cylinders and the defense unable to make a stop, Detroit managed just 13 designed rushes as they were pushed off their usual game. The early deficit did nothing to help, and those 13 carries produced just a 19th percentile EPA/rush and 27th percentile success rate. Jared Goff performed well with a lot on his shoulders as his five passing touchdowns helped Detroit produce an 82nd percentile EPA/pass. Allen and Goff combined for a tremendous 856 passing yards, nine total touchdowns, and countless explosive plays.

If this was a Super Bowl preview, we are more than lucky. Detroit now faces a bit of a challenge to maintain the one seed with the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings left on the schedule as the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings (with a win on Monday night against the Bears) could all end the week with the same record.

The Lions injuries seem to never end as Dan Campbell stated defensive linemen Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis have injuries that may be season ending. Their defensive injuries have hit an unfortunate high, though nothing in all of American football was going to stop Josh Allen today. Even his plays that didn’t count were silly.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: The Philadelphia Eagles passing attack looked smoother this week.

When Jalen Hurts sat down to start his press conference after a 27-13 win over the Steelers, a smirk did not sneak across his face. “So that’s what y’all wanted to see, huh?” His message was clear and direct, much like his play at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.

It was a long week for the Eagles as their passing game was scrutinized and their locker room was questioned. Their nine-game win streak was a thing of the past and all eyes were on how they would respond against a Pittsburgh Steelers front that could play with anyone. Hurts gave his answer as a broken finger on his left hand did not bother his early game rhythm.

A.J. Brown seemed to be more of a priority in the passing game this week as Hurts turned down fewer throws while Kellen Moore helped manufacture positive plays. On a touchdown in the 2nd quarter, the Eagles repeated a concept they used against the Panthers. There was a touch of seasoning on the dish, though, as an additional motion and alignment changes gave Hurts a clear answer.

That example of a small manipulation is an encouraging sign for the Eagles offense. They have a top offensive line in the league. They have great pass catchers. Adding on formational and motion advantages for the offense shrinks the answers that defenses can turn to. The all-22 will tell us more about the passing game, but this was a step in the right direction even if it didn’t feel perfect on longer time to throw plays.

In the end, Philadelphia threw their way to points and conversions while their rushing attack hit some speed bumps. Saquon Barkley had an injury early in the game limit his snaps, and Kenny Gainwell stepped in for some flashy play. The Eagles slammed the door shut in the second half as they had just three drives, which went for 13, 13, and 21 plays respectively. The 21-play, 10:29 long drive salted the game away and finished off the impressive win.

The passing game will be in the headlines this week, but the Eagles defense is the star of the season. The Steelers were held to a 7th percentile EPA/play and 12th percentile success rate while punting away three and outs on five of their first six drives. The only drive that wasn’t a three and out in that span occurred after the Steelers recovered a fumble but was followed by negative eight yards and a field goal. The Vic Fangio Demolition Tour is continuing indefinitley and will be tasked with stopping Jayden Daniels again next week.

The Eagles remaining schedule includes the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants. They would lose one seed tiebreakers to both the Lions and Vikings and thus will be looking for both teams to drop one more game. Their passing attack improving, even if all the way in Week 15, is important because it is the final piece for a team that boasts a top-end defense and a strong running game. Stuff the box against Saquon? Deal with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith outside. Play light boxes to prevent touch matchups in the pass game? Good luck against this offensive line.

It Will Matter Later: The Packers threw a wrench in the NFC West.

The Green Bay Packers have the third best record in the NFC North, yet they can contend for a Super Bowl. They have a microwave offense that can create big plays on the ground or through the air with a Jordan Love heat check. They also have a defense that has settled in at times this season, including during a 30-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers held the Seahawks to a 5th percentile EPA/play and 7th percentile success rate performance while Jordan Love played his part in a casual 94th percentile EPA/play.

The Packers closed the door after a Geno Smith injury, though their early lead was enough to win the game. Seattle now faces a stark reality with Geno Smith injured and the NFC West in the air. The Seahawks share the same record as the Los Angeles Rams, 8-6, but the Rams won a midseason matchup between the two teams. Seattle still has to play Minnesota and Chicago before making a trip to Los Angeles in Week 18, while the Rams have the Jets and Cardinals before the final showdown. The division may come down to that last week, but it will require Smith to bounce back in a hurry. The NFC West has been a pendulum all season, and we have three more games to see where it swings last.

It Didn’t Matter: The Denver Broncos had 130 passing yards and three interceptions. They won by 18 points.

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts played an important game with AFC Wild Card implications in Week 15. The offenses mustered 8th and 2nd percentile EPA/play performances, respectively, as the defenses led the day.

The quarterbacks combined for eight turnovers, the offenses were a combined 10/32 on third down, and the Broncos managed just 193 total yards. Still, Denver was able to win behind a 21-point fourth quarter that included the beautiful pick six (technically counted as a fumble recovery) above. The Colts were on their way to going up 20-7 early in the 3rd quarter, but an unfortunate mishap kept the game at bay.

With the win, Denver has essentially locked themself into a playoff spot in the AFC. They are currently the six seed and have a defense that no playoff team would want to face. They can generate pressure with four, close space at the second level, and their secondary forces interceptions. Pat Surtain II had an ankle injury late in this game, and we will wait for more news on the legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on this week’s performances.

Big Man Play of the Day
1. T’Vondre Sweat, Tennessee Titans

T’Vondre Sweat won a close fight for the top play here for a few reasons. He pulled a Houdini to take the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands, quickly changed directions to shake off one tackler, hit a Heisman-worthy stiff arm, and wanted even more. Sweat has had an impressive rookie season, and this play should lead off his year-end highlight reel.

2. Dan Skipper, Detroit Lions

If T’Vondre Sweat showed us the yards after contact, Dan Skipper showed us the yards after catch. Late in the 2nd quarter, Dan Skipper reported as eligible and was lined up on the line of scrimmage as a tight end. The Lions sold a counter run before Jared Goff booted out the other way. Skipper did a nice job selling his block before releasing into the flat, but the yards after catch are the most impressive. Skipper didn’t fumble, he didn’t stumble, but he did rumble his way into the end zone and second place on this impressive list.

3. Jonah Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Though the two plays above were in a tier of their own, I do want to give a nod to Jonah Williams who followed the play and was able to nimbly recover a fumble while staying in bounds to earn himself a touchdown.

The Repeat Award Winner: Liam Coen, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It feels like my duty to keep writing about Liam Coen because his future head coaching candidacy becomes stronger every week. To be sure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense is driven by solid players. The offensive line has burst onto the scene, Bucky Irving is having a great rookie campaign, and Baker Mayfield elevates the unit when he is avoiding negative plays. Still, Coen is able to get the Buccaneers into positive situations early with strong opening scripts and has transformed this run game from a zone attack to a healthy dose of creative, attacking gap scheme runs.

Tampa Bay ended up with an 82nd percentile EPA/play and 87th percentile success rate performance against a Chargers defense that has been impressive this season and will be a tough matchup for whoever they may meet in the playoffs. It helps that there is a wide-open player in a Buccaneers jersey multiple times per game.

It is also my duty to inform you that Mike Evans may get to 1,000 receiving yards, again. He needs 251 across his last three games to continue one of the most fun streaks in football. Evans has looked healthy, is moving well, and has a real shot at getting what he needs through the air. All of Tampa Bay’s games are meaningful for seeding as they currently hold the three seed but would lose any tiebreakers to the Atlanta Falcons should they catch up in the season’s final weeks.

Best Forgotten Stat Line: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

On a day highlighted by Josh Allen putting on a show, Lamar Jackson put together his own masterpiece. The Ravens offense had a 99th percentile EPA/play and success rate behind five Lamar Jackson passing touchdowns. Jackson ended up with more passing touchdowns than incompletions as he pushed the ball down the field and dropped dimes into the bucket.

Overtime: Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury against the Cleveland Browns.

The Kansas City Chiefs continued their road to a three-peat by getting closer to securing playoff home-field advantage with a win over the Cleveland Browns. Late in the game, Patrick Mahomes stepped up in the pocket, jumped to pass, then had his ankle turned underneath the weight of a defender. Mahomes got up with a heavy limp and did not return to the game.

Andy Reid let the media know that Mahomes did not suffer any broken bones, and Mahomes may have been able to (and wanted to) enter the game despite his injury. The injury was reported as a week-to-week injury, and the Chiefs have two games in ten days between a Saturday matchup with the Texans and a Christmas Day game against the Steelers. Mahomes has shown us more than once that his ankles are not subject to the common laws of human anatomy that we are used to, so we shouldn’t expect him to miss any significant games. Still, it is an injury that is worth monitoring.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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