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NFL Week 16 Review: Who Will Win the NFC?

The Vikings stay in the hunt for the #1 seed, Jayden Daniels is shining, and the Falcons have a new quarterback. Here is what you need to know about NFL Week 16.
by Shawn Syed|December 23, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The Minnesota Vikings are now 25-9 in one-score games under Kevin O’Connell, good for second-best in NFL history.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason consisted of losing an established quarterback to free agency, signing journeyman Sam Darnold to a one-year deal, drafting a quarterback in the first round, losing that rookie to a season-ending injury in his first preseason action, and walking into football’s toughest division. After 16 weeks, the Vikings are 13-2 and have the ability to not only win the division but enter the postseason as the #1 seed in the NFC.

Their bid for a bye week stayed alive on Sunday with a close win over the Seattle Seahawks where Minnesota was just 3/12 on third down. A fourth down conversion on the rainy opening drive of the game made way for a Sam Darnold touchdown to Jordan Addison on the way to three passing touchdowns. Darnold’s last one came on a drive where Kevin O’Connell’s headset went out and O’Connell, Darnold, and Justin Jefferson all had to improvise:

On the other side, Geno Smith was able to push the ball down the field on the way to 151 yards and three touchdowns on throws 10 or more yards down the field. Minnesota’s defense was effective on late downs, though offenses that can block the exotic rushes Brian Flores likes to send may be able to take advantage of one-on-one situations on the outside. Smith’s two interceptions, including a game-ender on a miscommunication with DK Metcalf, pushed the advanced numbers down, even though Seattle sustained an 85th percentile success rate. Seattle shut down Minnesota’s run game, has a short week before facing the Bears in Chicago on Thursday night, and now has an outside chance of winning the NFC West.

For Minnesota, the path to the #1 seed is clear, though it is easier said than done. The Vikings would lose a tiebreaker to the Lions so Minnesota must finish a game ahead of Detroit. Detroit will play the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night next week before hosting the Vikings for potentially conference deciding Week 18 matchup. Minnesota has to beat the dangerous Green Bay Packers at home in Week 17 to keep the bye week dreams alive. Minnesota jumped out to an early lead over the Packers before a near comeback in Week 4, though that feels like decades ago.

Minnesota’s fight for the conference lead will be tough over these next two weeks, but they have the tools to make it happen. Kevin O’Connell finds ways to get Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison easier looks, Sam Darnold will throw the ball down the field no matter what, and this defense can create turnovers that end the game. They have had a surprising season to this point and may be in line for a few more expectation breaking moments over the next month.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: Jayden Daniels is the future, but he is also the present.

The 2024 NFL Draft was full of first-round picks spent on the offensive side of the ball. The first 14 picks were all offensive players, and a record 23 offensive players went in round one. The player that may end up defining the 2024 class is the presumptive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ rookie season got off to a hot start with a signature game-winning touchdown over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. Washington’s offensive line and run game were rolling as the Commanders sat at 7-2 before a three-game losing streak against the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys.

Daniels and the Commanders are back on track with a three-game winning streak after an electric 36-33 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Daniels was able to deal with the blitz, continued throwing accurate deep passes, and was able to extend plays when it mattered the most. Daniels threw two interceptions over the middle of the field but was still able to have an 83rd percentile EPA/play.

On the receiving end of this Jayden Daniels defeat was the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles had their 10-game win streak snapped and suffered a concerning loss early in the 1st quarter. After a designed QB run, Jalen Hurts took a hit, got up slow, and tried to return to the huddle. He was sent to the sidelines for an evaluation, walked out of the blue tent, and then went back to the locker room. He ended up missing the rest of the game with a concussion as Kenny Pickett took the reins. The run heavy offense faced consistency issues as the Commanders could load the box with base personnel with a lesser quarterback run threat. Still, Saquon Barkley ripped off a big run and is now just 268 yards away from the single-season rushing record.

Perhaps more surprising than an offense sputtering with a backup quarterback was how Washington was able to score against Philadelphia’s usually dominant defense. Vic Fangio’s unit started strong with a fourth down stop on the Commanders’ first drive, a Jalen Carter forced fumble to start the second drive, and a three-and out to close the third drive. A Frankie Luvu interception led to a short field touchdown, and Washington was able to start multiple drives with strong field position because of Washington’s kick return unit. The Commanders also had a 96-yard drive where Jayden Daniels challenged both Eagles cornerbacks on vertical routes. In total, Washington turned the ball over five times but had enough chances to get the last-second win.

Aside from succeeding against the blitz and on down the field throws, Washington was also productive on late downs. The Commanders were a combined 9/16 on 3rd and 4th downs as they produced an 81st percentile EPA/play on those plays. The Eagles shut down Washington’s run game, but Daniels’s play extension was crucial down the stretch. Philadelphia also lost C.J. Gardner-Johnson to an ejection and Jordan Davis to an injury in this game while Nakobe Dean and Josh Sweat spent some time in the injury tent.

After the loss, the Eagles have a slim chance of getting the #1 seed in the NFC. Their most likely first round opponent will be the Washington Commanders, though that game would be played at Lincoln Financial Field. Jalen Hurts can hopefully take the appropriate time needed to get healthy while Philadelphia cleans up some late down issues on defense as well as some of the potentially game winning drops that occurred on offense. The Eagles have relied on their interior pass rush to create issues for offenses, and if they can’t create stress from the edge, their blitzes will need to hit home.

It Matters: Michael Penix Jr. gave the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons a new element on offense in his debut.

Michael Penix Jr. has been on quite the journey. He tore his ACL as a freshman at Indiana, started his sophomore year but missed time with an injury, tore his ACL again, and transferred to Washington. Penix Jr. put together two fantastic seasons at Washington where he built a reputation for pushing the ball down the field and avoiding sacks. He was drafted with the eighth overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons just a month after free agent Kirk Cousins signed a significant contract with the team.

On Tuesday, it was announced that the Atlanta Falcons would be making the move from Cousins to Penix Jr. against the New York Giants. Penix Jr.’s box score numbers may not have been noteworthy, but his 77th percentile EPA/dropback performance was full of encouraging signs for Atlanta’s offense.

Penix Jr. looked comfortable in the pocket, was throwing on time and on target to out breaking routes, and worked through his progressions to attack the middle of the field. He pushed the ball down the field in the first half and was able to avoid taking a sack despite being pressured 14 times. Penix Jr. helped Zac Robinson open up the play menu with boots and pocket movement as the Falcons had an 86th percentile offensive success rate.

After a surprising Cowboys win over the Buccaneers on Sunday night, Atlanta is now leading the NFC South by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s remaining two games are against the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints while Atlanta’s last two are against the Washington Commanders and the Panthers. Though those matchups may lean in Tampa Bay’s favor, Atlanta should be excited about Penix Jr.’s debut, which was supported by two pick sixes on defense. Atlanta’s offense has a higher ceiling with Penix Jr. at the wheel and their Week 17 Sunday night game against Washington will be an entertaining battle between first round draft picks.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on this week’s performances.

Play Call of the Day: Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions

Though many great artists are not appreciated in their time, Ben Johnson is a maven operating at the highest level earning every bit of praise. The Detroit Lions put up a 96th percentile EPA/play and 97th percentile success rate against the Chicago Bears, but one play stood out among the others.

Early in the 3rd quarter, Jared Goff took the snap from the Bears 21-yard line and stumbled over. Jahmyr Gibbs hit the deck for a full barrel roll before Goff pulled up and delivered a strike to Sam LaPorta on the beloved Leak concept.

Not convinced it was all drawn up beforehand? Turn up the volume and listen to the Lions screaming “fumble!” to convince the defense that the ball is on the ground and pull the second level of the defense towards the line. Though college teams have run various forms of fake fumbles, Johnson was apparently inspired by an accidental Jordan Love stumble in designing this touchdown:

Joe Burrow’s Unlikely Play(s) of the Day

Joe Burrow has had an impressive season despite the Cincinnati Bengals sitting in third place in the AFC North with a 7-8 record. The Bengals are holding on to a small chance of making the playoffs, but their quarterback has put together highlight performances, even on days governed by choppy waters.

1. Stumbling, Tumbling, Touchdown-ing

Joe Burrow is known for his play extension magic, and the 24-6 win over the Cleveland Browns was no exception. On the eighth play of a 99-yard drive, Burrow escaped through the middle of the pocket but lost his footing. That did nothing to deter him as he found a way to get the ball to Tee Higgins for this touchdown:

2. Whatever This Was

Continuing on Burrow’s ability to extend the play (particularly by stepping up and through the middle of the pocket), he had a very nice step up late in the 2nd quarter. Burrow shrugged off one defender, pump faked, and then was twisted into a Bavarian pretzel. The only catch was he somehow let the ball go before he was spun to the ground leading to this surprise positive play:

3. Free Play!

Burrow is enough of a headache for defenses on his own, but he is also happy to cash in on Christmas gifts like free plays. On a late drive in a two-possession game, Burrow caught the Browns offsides and sent one through the sky for Ja’Marr Chase to pluck. Chase came down with the touchdown catch to help boost Burrow’s 97th percentile completion percentage over expected.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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