X-twitter
Youtube
Instagram
Linkedin
Articles

NFL Week 17 Review: The Playoffs Are (Almost) Here!

The Vikings may earn the #1 seed, 12 out of 14 playoff teams are locked in, and the Bengals still have a chance. Here is what you need to know about Week 17.
by Shawn Syed|December 30, 2024

Share

Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday (and Saturday this week!) that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The Minnesota Vikings are one win away from an NFC North title and a first-round bye.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Minnesota Vikings, after entering the season expected to finish last in the NFC North, are just one win away from winning the division, earning a first-round bye, and completing a regular season for the ages. All that is left in front of them is a massive Week 18 meeting with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Before we look ahead to that game, though, the Vikings survived a late push from the Green Bay Packers to win 27-25 at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The Vikings defense started fast with a forced fumble on Green Bay’s first drive, which means Minnesota has forced a turnover in every single game this season. The Packers faced man coverage on 3rd and 4th downs in the first half and were not able to convert tight window situations. Green Bay opened the scoring with a field goal, and Sam Darnold looked like he didn’t have receivers open down field. Darnold was consistently getting through his entire progression with nowhere to go as the Packers closed space in zone coverage and devoted resources to defending Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings got back on track after a punt and missed field goal on their first two drives as Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings offense was able to use Justin Jefferson’s gravity against the Packers defense. Sam Darnold was able to throw to Jordan Addison to the opposite side as Jefferson, find Addison on the same side as Jefferson when the zone coverage moved more defenders to #18, and then found Jalen Nailor in a no huddle situation where the safety was rolling down to Justin Jefferson’s side:

The Vikings offense ended the day with a 67th percentile EPA/play and a 90th percentile success rate even though Edgerrin Cooper and the Packers were able to create negative plays in the run game. Sam Darnold threw to open targets at the highest rate of his career, and he stacked up completions over the middle of the field. Darnold was 23/27 for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws between the numbers.

The Packers defense was able to start their comeback attempt after going down 20-3 with a Carrington Valentine interception making way for Green Bay’s offense scoring three touchdowns in four drives. That led to the Vikings getting the ball back with 2:18 left in a 27-25 game where the Packers still had all three timeouts. Kevin O’Connell opened the drive up with a play action movement pass, helped set up a manageable 3rd down with a play action movement pass, and then finished the game off with, you guessed it, a play action movement pass.

The Packers came up just short in a game where they struggled against man coverage and the blitz. Jordan Love was able to handle the extra rusher on his last drive, but Love was just 13/23 for 118 yards facing the blitz outside of that drive. The Packers will sit at either the NFC’s #6 or #7 seed and could face off against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Wild Card weekend.

The Vikings win now sets up a Week 18 matchup that we all could have only dreamed up. The Vikings will play the Lions in Detroit and the winner of that game will be the NFC’s #1 seed, the NFC North champion, and cruise into a bye week. The loser will drop all the way down to the #5 seed in an NFC full of competitive teams.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: 12 out of 14 playoff teams are set. Who will fill the last two slots, and what will the seeding look like?
NFC

The NFC playoff picture is not complete yet, but we know six of the seven teams that have clinched spots:

  • Detroit Lions (#1 seed or #5 seed)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (#2 seed)
  • Los Angeles Rams (#3 seed or #4 seed)
  • Minnesota Vikings (#1 seed or #5 seed)
  • Washington Commanders (#6 seed or #7 seed)
  • Green Bay Packers (#6 seed or #7 seed)

The final playoff spot is reserved for the winner of the NFC South. The 9-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the driver’s seat despite the 8-8 Atlanta Falcons owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Buccaneers will win the division with either a win over the New Orleans Saints or with a Falcons loss to the Panthers. The Falcons will win the NFC South if they beat the Panthers to close the season and the Buccaneers lose in Week 18.

The winner of Minnesota-Detroit in Week 18 will be the #1 seed, while the loser will be the #5 seed. The #3 seed and #4 seed are moving targets as a Rams win or Buccaneers loss would mean the Rams are the #3 seed, but the Buccaneers could get the #3 seed with a win over the Saints and a Rams loss to the Seahawks. If the Buccaneers and Rams both lost and the Falcons won, the Falcons would only be able to get to the #4 seed.

The Commanders and Packers both will be in the playoffs and will decide who fills the #6 seed and #7 seed this year. The Commanders would be the #6 seed if they beat the Cowboys in Week 18 or if the Packers lose to the Bears. The Packers would only be the #6 seed with a Week 18 win and a Commanders loss. Both teams will have to decide how much they want to play their starters knowing the playoffs are on the horizon with the #7 seed heading to Lincoln Financial Field to play the Philadelphia Eagles.

AFC

The AFC has six teams locked in for the playoffs with some seeding still to be decided:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (#1 seed)
  • Buffalo Bills (#2 seed)
  • Baltimore Ravens (#3 seed or #5 seed)
  • Houston Texans (#4 seed)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (#3 seed, #5 seed, or #6 seed)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (#5 seed or #6 seed)

The seventh playoff team will fill the #7 seed and may be the Broncos, Dolphins, or Bengals. Here is each team’s path to the playoffs in Week 18:

  • Denver Broncos: Win vs. Chiefs OR Dolphins loss AND Bengals loss
  • Miami Dolphins: Win vs. Jets AND Broncos loss
  • Cincinnati Bengals: Win vs. Steelers AND Broncos loss AND Dolphins loss

The Broncos are in a true win-and-in situation against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was reported that the Chiefs will play multiple backups as they already locked up the #1 seed and a bye week on Christmas Day. Hollywood Brown has helped Xavier Worthy’s role change a bit and Joe Thuney, an All-Pro left guard, is now playing like an All-Pro left tackle. Patrick Mahomes has lowered his time to throw in recent weeks and is playing in rhythm. The entire NFL should be very afraid.

The AFC North title and the #3 seed will come down to the 11-5 Ravens hosting the Browns and the 10-6 Steelers hosting the Bengals in Week 18. The Ravens would win the division and be the #3 seed with a win or a Steelers loss. The Steelers will need a win and a Ravens loss to become division champions by virtue of a division win percentage tiebreaker.

It Matters for Another Week: The Cincinnati Bengals are still alive for an AFC Wild Card spot.

The 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals have played what feels like the same game multiple times this season. It starts with Joe Burrow escaping pressure and extending plays. It continues with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins making catches that don’t seem possible. Then it ends with the other team’s offense driving down for a late score and a coin flip to see who wins. On Saturday, the coin landed in the Bengals’ favor in a game that included 412 Joe Burrow passing yards, three Tee Higgins receiving touchdowns, and the NFL’s second longest completion by air distance since 2016:

The matchup to watch heading into this game was a strong Broncos defense against a stronger Bengals passing attack. Pat Surtain II has a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year argument with his lockdown coverage, and Riley Moss returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 12. Denver has been able to create pressure with just four pass rushers throughout the year, and they sacked Burrow six times without the blitz in their Saturday matchup. The issue was Burrow was also 23/26 for 269 yards and a touchdown when Denver rushed four.

Burrow also had the quickest time to throw of his entire career at just 2.23 seconds as he consistently found Chase, Higgins, and even Mike Gesicki. Pat Surtain II was lined up across from Chase for much of the game, which left Riley Moss to deal with Tee Higgins. Higgins caught seven passes on eight targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns when lined up against Moss, including the game winner in overtime:

Even with the Bengals racking up an 82nd percentile EPA/play and 97th percentile success rate, the Broncos kept the game close with vertical throws and a consistent rushing attack. After Cincinnati scored a touchdown with just 1:29 left on the clock, Denver took seven plays to complete a 70-yard touchdown drive, ending in a 4th and 1 roll out throw to Marvin Mims Jr.:

The Bengals drive before the game-tying touchdown had an interesting situation that deserves some Monday morning review behind the comfort of a keyboard. After a Burrow to Chase 3rd & 6 conversion to get the ball to the 6-yard line, the Broncos stopped the clock with their second timeout with 1:39 on the clock in a 17-17 game. The Bengals handed the ball off to Chase Brown who injured himself while stopping himself on the 1-yard line. This led to the Bengals taking their third timeout because the injury occurred inside of two minutes at the end of a half. The Bengals proceeded to score on the next play, kicked the ball off, and allowed the game-tying touchdown drive mentioned above.

An alternate approach to the situation would have been to kneel the ball three times starting on 1st & Goal, run the play clock all the way down, take a timeout with the play clock drained on 4th down, and then kick a field goal. Denver would have been able to stop the clock after one of the three kneel downs, and the other two would have taken the entire 40-second play clock along with a second or more on the kneels (though I would advocate for the quarterback taking the snap and losing ground before sliding or kneeling to take even more time off the clock given they are already at the goal line, despite the potential risks). Here is what the timings could have looked like, with all estimates going in favor of their being more time left on the clock for the sake of the argument:

  • 1st & Goal: 1:39 on the clock to start, 1 second to kneel, 1 second for Denver’s timeout, 1:37 remaining with the clock stopped.
  • 2nd & Goal: 1:37 on the clock to start, 1 second to kneel, 1:36 on the running clock at the end of the play with 40 seconds on the play clock.
  • 3rd & Goal: 57 seconds left on the clock after running off 39 seconds, 1 second to kneel, 56 seconds left on the running clock with 40 seconds on the play clock.
  • 4th & Goal: Timeout taken after 39 seconds are run down, leaving 17 seconds remaining. Assuming just 3 seconds tick off the clock on a made field goal (which, of course, is not a 100% proposition!) we are left with 14 seconds in a 20-17 game.

I can understand arguments that being up by seven points is much better than being up by three points, and a next drive Hail Mary would have turned all of the math to dust. Still, it is worth considering which of the following two situations you would prefer before kicking the ball off:

  • Winning by seven points with 1:29 left on the clock, or
  • Winning by three points with 14 seconds left on the clock

The 14 seconds could be even lower if the kneels took longer or if it took more than one second to register Denver’s third timeout. Of course, there are added risks for the quarterback-center exchange on all of those plays, but a team that scores on that last drive could also choose to go for two and the win with the clock melted away instead of trying to float through the desperation of just 10 seconds left on the clock. Either way, it ended up working out for the Bengals who still have a sliver of hope for the playoffs.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on this week’s performances.

Negotiation of the Week

At this time of the year, history is written, record books are rewritten, and players experience career-defining moments. The footballs, cleats, and jerseys that took part in those moments are important keepsakes for the players and franchises involved. Two moments stuck out from Week 17 where touchdowns led to balls thrown into the stands, which lead to the all-important fan negotiation.

1. Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown and Dom DiSandro

With Jalen Hurts ruled out before the game and a Kenny Pickett injury late in the third quarter, Tanner McKee had a chance to make his NFL debut on Sunday. He threw just four passes on the day, and two of them went for touchdowns. On his first, McKee found A.J. Brown on a slot fade before Brown sent the ball flying into the stands. Only after Brown launched the ball into orbit did he realize that it was Tanner McKee’s first career touchdown throw. Brown immediately started the negotiation with the fan that caught the ball, promising he would give him his game-worn jersey. The fan made good on the offer, returned the ball, and was one of many positives for the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield also found himself at the negotiation table during the Buccaneers 48-14 win over the Carolina Panthers. After Mayfield threw Payne Durham his first career touchdown, Durham made the move to send the historic ball into the stands. The Buccaneers brought the father and son who secured the ball through the team tunnel and provided a replacement ball. Mayfield met with the family after the game, though the terms of the negotiation for the ball have not been made public. This was an interesting situation since Durham was the one who threw his own potential shelf stuffer into the crowd as opposed to the A.J. Brown mishap above.

Choose Your Milestone!
1. Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

There have been some phenomenal rookie seasons for players that will be on Pro Bowl and All-Pro rosters over the next few years. Four rookies (Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers) have 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in NFL history. We have running backs eclipsing 1,000 yards, offensive linemen becoming pivotal pieces of blocking units, quarterbacks that look solid, and defensive players that are already making highlight plays. The 2024 rookie class is one that we are lucky to have in our lives for years to come.

The leader in the rookie record clubhouse, though, is Raiders tight end Brock Bowers. When Bowers was selected with the 13th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, there was a collective head nodding from the entire media room in Detroit; the pick just made sense. Bowers was an unbelievable prospect and is meeting his high expectations. On Sunday against the Saints, Bowers broke two rookie records. First, he passed Mike Ditka for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end. Second, he passed Puka Nacua for the most catches by a rookie pass catcher. He will be a key part of the Raiders offense moving forward and may find himself on all-time lists if he can sustain his play over a long career.

2. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have a top offensive line in the league, a versatile scheme that can move all five pieces up front, a commitment to running the ball, and a quarterback that morphs how defenses deal with the run game. Included with all of that is a running back with great short area burst, long speed, agility in tight spaces, and the ability to hit a home run on any pitch, regardless of the count. Saquon Barkley went over the 2,000-yard mark in a 41-7 win over the Dallas Cowboys is now 101 yards away from the single-season rushing record.

The Eagles are locked into the 2 seed, so there is a good chance the Eagles will rest their starters ahead of the playoffs. If that was all for Saquon Barkley in the 2024 regular season, it was a thrill to watch the magic at work.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

Share

Related Posts

Articles

Hot Sauce Hot Takes: Milroe, Mid-Tier QBs, and More!

January 1, 2025
Articles

2025 New England Patriots Mock Draft

December 31, 2024
Articles

NFL Week 17 Review: The Playoffs Are (Almost) Here!

December 30, 2024
Podcasts

Bears vs. Seahawks – Thursday Night Football Reaction! | Episode 84

December 28, 2024

Connect with SumerSports

X-twitter Youtube Instagram Linkedin

© 2024 SumerSports and/or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy

X-twitter Youtube Instagram Linkedin