Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.
Jump to:
First Things First: The Baltimore Ravens offense look unstoppable.
If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.
Through eight weeks, the Denver Broncos led the defensive standings in EPA/play allowed, dropback EPA/play allowed, and dropback success rate allowed. They were blitzing teams into oblivion at a 40.9% rate (second in the league) and creating pressure at a 39.6% rate (third in the league). That is all before MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson and broken tackle machine Derrick Henry were on the schedule.
Lamar Jackson had a 99th percentile EPA/Play performance, Derrick Henry forced 13 missed tackles, and Zay Flowers went 5-127-2 as the Ravens put up 41 points on the Broncos
The Broncos had the #1 defense by EPA/play entering today pic.twitter.com/HQr7REPRCj
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 3, 2024
The Ravens offense had a fantastic day that means even more considering their tough opponent. Lamar Jackson produced a 99th percentile EPA/play while Derrick Henry was credited with forcing 13 missed tackles. Zay Flowers caught five passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns with 62 yards after the catch.
This offense is a well-oiled machine that gives a defense too much to worry about. Jackson was not credited with a designed run against the Broncos, but the combo of Henry and Jackson in the backfield forces the defense to deal with horizontal and vertical runs given the duo’s speed and strength. Todd Monken and Jackson are more than happy to sit in a more traditional passing offense as Zay Flowers creates separation on the outside as Diontae Johnson is poised to add his talents after joining the team last week.
The offense feels sustainable because Jackson can deal with the blitz and also lead the offense to 41 points while only throwing 19 passes. They can win in multiple ways and challenge you to find your weak spot. The larger questions are on the defensive side of the ball for the Ravens as they had a strong showing against Bo Nix but are still in need of pass rush help as Tuesday’s trade deadline approaches.
The Matter Meter
How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?
It Definitely Matters: The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers in the rain.
The Detroit Lions continued their reign over the NFC with a 24-14 win at rainy Lambeau Field. Jared Goff had another high completion percentage game and was 10/10 on under center play action passes. Goff loves ripping a throw to an in breaking route, and Ben Johnson has shaped this offense around the credible threat of the run and the devastation that follows a play fake. Johnson continues calling run plays in expected pass situations and has the creativity to match any play caller in the league.
Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp came up with this fake return route in the 2020 offseason, Kupp ran it with Matthew Stafford in 2021, Kevin O’Connell brought it over to Minnesota in 2022, and Amon-Ra St. Brown added a step to it off motion pic.twitter.com/Vxey6K7469
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 4, 2024
The Packers actually had a higher success rate and EPA/rush than the Lions in this game, but a combination of errors added up to a loss for Green Bay. Big dropped passes were sprinkled throughout the rainy day, and a Jordan Love pick six as the first half came to a close had the Packers down by 14. Detroit then opened the second half with a long touchdown drive that pushed the Packers away from their successful Josh Jacobs runs.
The Lions ended up with a worse offensive success rate than the Packers even though this game did not feel as close as the scoreboard indicated. Detroit started the second half with a 91% win probability and did not dip below that mark for the rest of the game. This was another check mark for the Lions as they do not have to play outdoors again until Week 16 in Chicago. The Lions are another team that we should expect to make a move for an edge rusher as they gear up for a run to New Orleans.
It Matters: The Bills won a game where Josh Allen threw the ball shorter than he ever has.
Josh Allen is a quarterback built in a lab. He can access every yard of the field with his arm, is a true positive in the run game, and casts third down magic every game. Despite the super-powered cannon attached to his right shoulder, Allen had an average depth of target of just 3.6 yards against the Dolphins, which was good for the 2nd percentile and the lowest of his career. Miami prioritized forcing underneath throws, and Allen obliged as 81% of his pass yards came after the catch. He also made this amazing play that will find its way onto the end of season highlight reel:
😱😱😱
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/FhnmVHwfQl
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 3, 2024
Winning a game where Josh Allen only averaged six yards per attempt is important as this offense tries to remove the loss to the Ravens from our memory. Buffalo’s offense had a 54% success rate, good for a 93rd percentile performance, and sustaining an efficient attack could be their path to the top of the AFC. The Dolphins put together a valiant effort in a game that came down to a last second field goal while new Bill Amari Cooper was inactive with a wrist injury.
It didn’t matter today: Justin Herbert was sacked 6 times, and the Chargers still walked to a win.
The Los Angeles Chargers might just find their way into the playoffs in the first year of the Jim Harbaugh era. The Chargers offense is a combination of run game reliance (75th percentile performance by EPA/rush against the Browns) and Justin Herbert making eye-catching plays. Herbert was under constant pressure from Myles Garrett and crew who tallied six sacks on the day. The Chargers found success pushing the ball down the field, but it was their defense that stood out in this game.
Justin Herbert was 7/12 for 196 yards and 2 TD on passes 10+ yards down the field, per NFL Pro. Herbert was also sacked 6 times as Myles Garrett generated 7 pressures pic.twitter.com/aWvqGfWi7U
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 3, 2024
Jesse Minter has done a great job putting together a Chargers defense that feels more and more real with each game. Minter leads the quintessential modern defense. They play light boxes. They play middle of the field open coverages. They are tight to routes within their matching system. They want to rush four but will get creative with their pressures.
All of that is made possible by a confidence in dealing with the run from the same nickel looks that give the defense flexibility on the back end. The Chargers allowed just 2.5 yards per carry when they were in light boxes against the Browns, and they lead the league in the percentage of light boxes used this season. This is made possible by high-level defensive tackle play and linebackers that understand and execute their run fit responsibilities.
The Chargers play a throwback brand of football with a modern twist. They might just end up as a Wild Card contender with a top quarterback and a defense that can win you a game.
And the Award Goes to…
Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on Week 9’s performances.
Best Unexpected Division Leader
1. Washington Commanders, NFC East
The Washington Commanders are the darling of the NFL season. Jayden Daniels is playing like an experienced veteran as he delivers accurate passes and avoids sacks on the way to offensive success. Daniels notched a 0.54 EPA/dropback in this game, good for the 95th percentile, as the offensive line held up their end of the bargain; New York’s dominant defensive line generated pressure at just a 20% rate while blitzing on 60% of dropbacks. The Commanders were missing Brian Robinson Jr. but still managed a 53% success rate on the ground (93rd percentile). The Giants did have success against Washington’s run defense, and the Commanders will be tested as they play the Steelers in Week 10 before a division showdown with the Eagles on Thursday night in Week 11.
Jayden Daniels had another game of accurate throws, sack avoidance, and playmaking off schedule
The Washington Commanders offense had a 96th percentile performance by EPA/play and is still 100% on 4th down conversions pic.twitter.com/SiqUvd4mci
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 3, 2024
2. Arizona Cardinals, NFC West
The NFC West is a bit of a mess, in a good way (I think). The 49ers are injured at what feels like every position, the Seahawks have stumbled after their hot start, the Rams are winning games despite early rumors that they would be sellers at the trade deadline, and it is all led by the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are now on a three-game win streak, and the defense led the way against the Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks as the Cardinals had a grand total of 16 different players tally a pressure. James Conner continues to force missed tackles, and Drew Petzing is finding the right buttons to push with this heavy personnel rushing attack.
The Cardinals are leading the NFC West after 9 weeks and have wins over both the 49ers and the Rams.
Arizona’s defense created its most pressure in a game this season on the way to 6 sacks, and James Conner forced 8 missed tackles to add to his league leading total pic.twitter.com/MoVKTtlFio
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 4, 2024
The division is still far from settled as San Francisco rode high into the bye week and may be expecting Christian McCaffrey back soon. Matthew Stafford is also still playing lights out as the Rams pass rush builds itself up. San Francsico has earned the right to be the favorite the rest of the way, but Arizona’s wins over both the 49ers and Rams could prove to be pivotal later in the season.
3. Atlanta Falcons, NFC South
I am not sure if we should consider the Falcons unlikely favorites, but after two weeks, things looked bleak.
Atlanta handed Dallas another loss in Week 9, and the second place Buccaneers will face a tough test in Kansas City on Monday night. Atlanta’s two wins over the Buccaneers this season secured a big tiebreaker, and the Falcons offense looks like a real threat. Kirk Cousins is playing well, and between Bijan Robinson on the ground, Darnell Mooney separating on routes, Drake London winning contested catch situations, and Kyle Pitts doing a bit of both, first-time offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is settling into an arsenal of weapons that can threaten any defense.
Kirk Cousins had an 11.6% completion percentage over expected against the Cowboys, good for an 89th percentile performance. Back to back solid games as the Falcons sit at 6-3 pic.twitter.com/kViYrof6G1
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 3, 2024
Best Eagles Play in a Close Win Over the Jaguars
The Jaguars-Eagles game was full of rare happenings. The Eagles sported their beloved Kelly Green uniforms. There was an odd fumble return for a touchdown on what looked like a play that should have been ruled down by contact. The Eagles went 0-2 on fourth downs, and their push sneak was stopped multiple times. That still does not even begin to describe the shenanigans we saw on Sunday.
1. Saquon Barkley’s Spurdle
Saquon Barkley is doing his best to rebut arguments that pursuing running back contracts in free agency is a fruitless endeavor. He is a big play waiting to happen for Philadelphia and delivers timely explosive runs. Barkley’s most impressive play came on a 3rd down reception where he shook off the initial tackler, spun out of the next tackler, then hurdled a defender backwards as he rotated through the air into a brand-new move. Madden players are familiar with the jurdle, but I am here to introduce you to the spurdle:
OH MY! YOU JUST GOT BARKLEYED™️@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/xyib70rth4
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 3, 2024
2. DeVonta Smith’s One-Handed Touchdown
With A.J. Brown out for the game, DeVonta Smith decided to have one of the most impressive plays of the season. On a 3rd and 22 after a 46-yard connection earlier on the drive, Jalen Hurts threw a dart to Smith. What came next was a special grab that combined laser focus with masterful body control to get both feet in bounds:
Incredible, DeVonta Smith.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/it2xzBFwf8— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
3. Jahan Dotson’s Self Alley Oop
Jahan Dotson made an insane catch, and the play comes at number three on this list because the Eagles decided to put together an AND1 mixtape on Lincon Financial Field. Dotson’s catch here is so beautiful because he jumps to get his hand on the ball, is walled off by the defender, ends up getting enough of his hand to pop the ball up and back to himself, and then comes down with the grab:
Sheeeeeesh, Jahan Dotson.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ioVlA3yrs7— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
Best Play Off a Bobble
Speaking of odd bounces of the oddly shaped prolate spheroid that is a football, Week 9 had an inordinate amount of tipped and bobbled passes that ended up caught, both by the offense and by the defense.
7 different examples of tipped/bobbled throws from Week 9. 5 ended in interceptions, 2 were receptions pic.twitter.com/t0bZakBEww
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 4, 2024
The winner here is Jalen Ramsey coming away with an interception off a Josh Allen pass to Keon Coleman. Ramsey gets bonus points here both for how quickly he had to react and how he had to initially wrestle the ball away from Coleman.
A thing of beauty. 🤩@jalenramsey really said GIMME THAT!! pic.twitter.com/R7e06HWBrV
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 3, 2024
Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!
