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The Monday Morning Mashup, NFL Week 5: The NFC North is the Best Division in Football

The NFC North soars, the Bengals fall, Jayden Daniels beats the pressure, and C.J. Stroud makes the most of his situation. Here is what you need to know from NFL Week 5.
by Shawn Syed|October 7, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The NFC North Is the Best Division in Football, and All Four Teams Can Make the Playoffs.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Bears all entered this season with compelling narratives. The Lions were looking to sustain their success after a deflating comeback loss sent them packing in the NFC Championship game. The Vikings drafted a rookie quarterback who impressed in limited preseason snaps, but an injury meant he would miss the season.  The Packers were a hot pick to make the Super Bowl after Jordan Love broke onto the scene. The Chicago Bears had new life with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, coming to town.

Now, all four teams have a real chance to make the playoffs as the NFC North is the only division with every team over .500 through five games. More importantly, each team is building an identity that can sustain through the long season and will make these division games must-watch matchups.

The Lions closed out Week 4 with a win over the Seahawks where Jared Goff was a perfect 18/18 and the defense made just enough plays as they cruised into a bye week. Ben Johnson is padding his head coaching resume each week as injuries up front have not stopped the offense from having success on the ground and in the middle of the field in the pass game. Jameson Williams has been blue lightning for the Lions, and Aidan Hutchinson is generating pressure at a league-leading clip. The in-your-face man coverage style of the defense has penalty variance baked in, but contesting routes and creating one stop can be enough to win when the offense is on fire.

The Vikings kicked off Sunday with a win in London where an Aaron Jones injury and some Sam Darnold struggles raised concerns about the 5-0 leaders of the NFC North. Jones has been a big addition for Kevin O’Connell whose running game struggled in his first and second year. After O’Connell relied on zone runs in year one and dabbled in unsuccessful gap scheme runs in year two, Aaron Jones has been a sight for sore eyes. He has good vision on outside runs while bouncing duo runs to cornerbacks before forcing missed tackles.

O’Connell’s more important work, though, has been with Sam Darnold. Darnold has spent much of the early season playing on time with decisiveness before a few turnover worthy throws last week made way for a tough outing against the Jets. Last week’s small cracks in the armor were expanded this week as Darnold was pressured on more than half of his dropbacks after the opening drive. The Vikings offense ended the day with -0.08 EPA/dropback with Darnold on the field despite having a 98th percentile average depth of target.

He was also 3/10 against the blitz and threw into tight windows as New York’s defensive backs showed up in a big way with pass break ups and deflections. O’Connell continued to dial up deep shots with Jones out of the game and Darnold was eventually picked off on an errant throw down the field. Luckily for Darnold and the offense, Brian Flores’ defense is still the best in the league by the numbers, by the celebrations, and by the threatening auras.

The Green Bay Packers have experienced five seasons within five games. To start the year, a sloppy performance in Brazil ended in an injury to Jordan Love that looked like it was a season ender. Then Matt LaFleur pulled out his most devious play sheets to cook up two wins with Malik Willis at quarterback. In Jordan Love’s return, an early Vikings lead was too much to overcome despite a strong second half performance. In Week 5, the Packers did just enough to beat the Los Angeles Rams as Jordan Love was 11/15 against four pass rushers but was 4/17 with an interception against the blitz.

The Packers offensive line held up well, allowing their lowest pressure rate of the season, and Xavier McKinney tallied his fifth interception in five games. Jeff Hafley’s defense still has to prove its mettle, but McKinney’s play making has been a welcome addition to this unit. The Packers seem like a team that will end the season on a streak, whether that is positive or negative. I do have a lot of trust in Matt LaFleur, though, since he keeps on drawing up plays where pass catchers are wide open and defenders are grasping at shadows.

The Bears bring up the rear in this division despite a 3-2 record. The start of the Caleb Williams era has had ups and downs, but his tape has shown consistent encouraging signs. Williams is given a ton of responsibility at the line of scrimmage and is handling protections in a mature way.

The offensive design leaves something to be desired at times, but Williams got back on track in Week 5. Against the Carolina Panthers, Williams reminded everyone of his play extension abilities as he was 12/16 for 206 yards and two touchdowns on dropbacks that went over 2.5 seconds. He was also able to connect on deep throws as DJ Moore tallied up 105 yards.

The Bears defense is a top five unit in EPA/play so far this season and they have playmakers that can change the game. Jaylon Johnson is now well established at cornerback, but Gervon Dexter Sr. has impressed early this year with 14 total pressures on the season from the defensive tackle position. He has the sixth most pressures among defensive tackles and created a pressure on 25% of his pass rushes against the Panthers.

The chances of all four of these teams making the playoffs is low because they are all scheduled to play each other multiple times. Still, all four of these teams have formed a top to bottom division that is the best in the league.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Doesn’t Matter Anymore: The Cincinnati Bengals Were Close to Winning

The Cincinnati Bengals were close.

They were close to beating the Ravens. They were close to beating the Commanders in Week 3. They were close to beating the Chiefs in Week 2. They were close to beating the Patriots in Week 1. Now the Bengals are close to spoiling an entire season with a 1-4 start that lands them firmly at the bottom of AFC North next to the hapless Cleveland Browns.

The most frustrating part of the Bengals season so far is that Joe Burrow has been improving every week and returned to form on Sunday with 392 yards and five touchdowns that netted the offense a ridiculous 0.54 EPA/dropback. Burrow was decisive, accurate, and pressed his matchup advantages with Ja’Marr Chase (10 catches, 193 yards, two touchdowns) and Tee Higgins (nine catches, 83 yards, two touchdowns) throughout the game.

Burrow did throw an interception when Marlon Humphrey cut off a slant route to Chase, but the Bengals offense cut themself off with a chance to win the game. After Lamar Jackson fumbled an overtime shotgun snap and the Bengals recovered, Cincinnati had the ball on the Ravens’ 38 yard-line in a next score wins situation. The next three plays were a run for zero yards, a run for three yards, and a run for zero yards.

Need I remind you that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase had ridiculous football days?

The Bengals finding a way to lose a game where Joe Burrow threw for five touchdowns doesn’t overshadow a fantastic Lamar Jackson performance. Jackson completed 10 of his 15 passes in the intermediate area of the field for 174 yards and a touchdown on the way to 348 yards and four touchdowns. A leaky Bengals defense continued their struggles and will end up near the bottom of this week’s numbers in both EPA/play and success rate allowed. This team has a great offense, this team also has an underperforming defense, and now this team may end up playing a shorter season than expected.

It Definitely Matters: Houston, We Have an Early Down Rushing Problem

Here is the good news. The Texans are 4-1, will likely win the AFC South, and have the second highest EPA/play offense on 3rd and 4th downs in the NFL.

Here is the bad news. Nico Collins was injured this week, the Texans have a -12 point differential on the season, and they are the second worst EPA/play offense on 1st and 2nd down in the league. The Texans early down rush success rate numbers for Weeks 1-5 are as follows: 50% (nice!), 24% (not good, maybe it is just a one week thing?), 18% (oh no), 25% (*gulp*), and 21% (and still 4-1!).

Even with those concerning numbers, C.J. Stroud is willing the Texans to win games facing 3rd and longs, pressure, and everything in between:

The Texans offense struggled after Nico Collins’ departure, and the run game is on a worrying trajectory. Joe Mixon had plenty of success in Week 1 and will be aiming to return for Week 6 against the Patriots, which may help answer some of the questions this ground game faces. Stroud has been able to erase early down issues game after game and Houston can hopefully clean up the run game to require a bit less magic from their superstar quarterback.

On the defensive side of the ball, DeMeco Ryans put a huge blanket over the Bills’ passing game. Josh Allen was 1/15 on passes 10 or more yards down the field as Houston was comfortable playing man coverage and open receivers led to missed opportunities.

Even though the Bills are on a two-game skid against high-end AFC opponents after a 3-0 start, they should be the favorites to win the AFC East as Josh Allen is still a top two quarterback in the league. Houston’s secondary had a good showing in this game and some of the down the field plays that were not made should end up as completions in future games.

Joe Brady will look to tap back into some of the formation, personnel, and motion creativity that had this team off to a hot start before a Week 6 Monday Night Football game against a Jets defense that shares a bit of DNA with the Texans defense. The Jets will likely stay in their nickel personnel against Buffalo’s heavy looks the same way the Texans and Ravens did to avoid play action explosives that beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The next counterpunch for the Bills offense will be an important one.

It Matters: Jayden Daniels Beat the Pressure, Again

Jayden Daniels has given Washington Commanders fans what they have desired for years: hope. Daniels’ draft profile included accuracy and playmaking, but his pressure to sack ratio received heightened scrutiny. Through five weeks, Daniels has put together a highlight reel on how to deal with defenders muddying the pocket. He scrambled nine times against the Browns for a 66.7% success rate including six runs and three passes for 88 yards and made unblocked rushers disappear:

The Commanders offense was able to generate explosive plays in Cleveland despite struggling with down-to-down consistency early on. Jayden Daniels also played a grand total of zero 4th quarter snaps as this game was out of hand early. Washington aced their first test of October and now head to Baltimore to continue their AFC North tour as we get excited for a Lamar Jackson-Jayden Daniels showdown.

And the Nominees Are…

Here are the ballots for some very real, very important awards. Cast your vote and let your voice be heard.

Best Performance by a Rookie Skill Position Player Not Yet Mentioned in This Article
1. Brian Thomas Jr., Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted in back half of the first round this year and has been a bright spot for an otherwise dreary Jaguars team. He was a frequent vertical route runner at LSU and brings that same electricity to the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, Thomas Jr. reached the highest ball carrier speed of any player so far this season on this play:

Though the highlight plays pop, Thomas Jr. has also shown the ability to be a nuanced route runner. He can be a consistent target for Trevor Lawrence as the Jags look to get back on track. Much of Thomas Jr.’s production came on one reception as he finished the day with five receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown on eight targets.

2. Brock Bowers, Tight End, Las Vegas Raiders

We are in a bit of a tight end desert, and Brock Bowers is here to change that. Bowers was one of the most touted prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft and has shown the ability to be a game changer early in his career. He fits the bill of too fast for linebackers and too big for cornerbacks. His route running has been on display, but he can also track a ball and accelerate all the way to the end zone:

Bowers also had a chunk of his production concentrated on one explosive play as he ended the day with eight receptions for 97 yards and a score on 12 targets with Davante Adams missing another game.

3. Tyrone Tracy Jr., Running Back, New York Giants

A surprise entry for this week is Tyrone Tracy Jr. Tracy Jr. was once a receiver at Iowa who then transferred to Purdue to focus on playing running back. On Sunday, the rookie filled in for Devin Singletary in a big way with 18 carries for 129 yards, 8 of which generated positive EPA, and 47 rush yards over expected. He was a big part of a surprise win for the Giants over the Seahawks as Seattle’s defense surrendered the fifth worst success rate heading into Sunday night. Mike Macdonald will look to trouble shoot the defensive front before a Thursday Night Football game with the San Francisco 49ers.

Best Return Touchdown of the Week
1. Pat Surtain II, Cornerback, Denver Broncos, Interception Return

Am I starting to believe in the Denver Broncos? Maybe not yet, but Vance Joseph has this Broncos defense on fire. They have multiple pass rushers that can generate pressure and have one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss continues to step up on the other side of the field.

Even with a stellar defense, much falls on the offense. Against the Raiders, Bo Nix was sacked three times despite only being pressured on five dropbacks. The Broncos were able to have an impressive 50% rushing success rate. Before the end of Sunday Night Football, the Broncos have the 26th ranked EPA/play offense and the 3rd best EPA/play defense. It is a volatile combination given the nature of offense and defense, but it is working out (so far).

2.  Deommodore Lenoir, San Francisco 49ers, Blocked Field Goal Return

Deommodore Lenoir’s return touchdown was not enough to lead the 49ers to a win over the Cardinals as San Francisco fell to 2-3. James Conner forced nine missed tackles, and the Cardinals registered a 53.3% success rate with multiple tight ends on the field. San Francisco got to base defense looks to match the Cardinals’ 12 personnel, and Arizona was still able to make them pay on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy had to throw into tight windows but was able to connect with Brandon Aiyuk, who finished the day with eight receptions for 147 yards. Purdy ended up with two interceptions off a deflection and a rusher hitting his arm as he was trying to release the ball. His encouraging play so far this season hit a road bump against the Cardinals as did the 49ers run game.

The 49ers had a -0.27 EPA/rush against Arizona as a Jordan Mason fumble in the red zone led to a Cardinals game-winning field goal. Mason has been a serviceable fill in, but Christian McCaffrey’s absence is felt where the offense does not have the same easy answers when a linebacker is matched up on a running back. The 49ers were 1/6 in the red zone in the loss and will look to turn it around in a hurry as they head to Seattle for a Thursday night division game against the Seahawks.

3. Rayshawn Jenkins, Seattle Seahawks, Fumble Return

Speaking of the Seahawks, they were a participant in this week’s weird trend of returns for touchdowns. On a 4th and goal on the Giants’ first drive of the game, Daniel Jones handed off to Eric Gray for what may or may not have been a touchdown. Rayshawn Jenkins then scooped the ball up for what was definitely a touchdown:

The Seahawks ended up upset by the Giants after they were competitive with the Detroit Lions last Monday night. DK Metcalf ended up with just two catches for 24 yards when Deonte Banks was lined up across from him and Geno Smith had to get the ball out quick to deal with the Giants pass rush. Smith’s attacking style was hampered as he had his lowest time to throw as a Seahawk and his lowest air yards per attempt in a year.

4. Bryce Ford-Wheaton, New York Giants, Blocked Field Goal Return

As the Seahawks trotted out their field goal unit to tie the game, the New York Giants tried a different strategy to block the field goal attempt. The players over the center and right guard tried to keep those players low as Isaiah Simmons skied over the line for a sweet block. Apparently, the rule is that holding the long snapper down is not a penalty as there would have needed to be forcible contact to the head and neck area to draw a flag. Weird league, weird week, weird play:

5. Jaylen McCollough, Los Angeles Rams, Pick Six

Jordan Love had an all-time bad to worse play on a 3rd and 12 on the Packers’ goal line. Love was running what looked like a sprint out concept and the backside rusher ended up unblocked; this throw is often made on the run and backside pursuit usually doesn’t have an impact on the play. Once Love pulled up to throw, Byron Young closed the space. What looked like a sure sack turned into a push that got Love off balance as he threw the ball away to avoid a safety. The issue was the ball landed right in Jaylen McCollough’s arms for a three-yard pick six.

Best Play That Definitely Should Not Have Worked Out
1. This Silly Alec Pierce Catch

Alec Pierce has a funny statistical profile. He leads the league with 25 average intended air yards per target. The gap between him and the receiver in second place is the same gap between the receiver in second place and the receiver in 33rd place. Pierce has benefitted from Anthony Richardson deep shots and continued that trend with the apparently ageless Joe Flacco. Here he is keeping his concentration on a difficult catch:

2. Lamar Jackson’s Playground Touchdown

Lamar Jackson’s ridiculous late-game touchdown contains multitudes. First, he fumbled the snap, something he would do once again later on as the Bengals almost secured a win. Second, Jackson had to crawl on hands and knees to pick the ball up as the pocket collapsed. Third, Jackson had to stiff arm the defensive end twice like he was a mascot playing against middle schoolers during the halftime show. Fourth, Jackson had to scramble and make a jumping throw into the end zone while being launched out of bounds. The defensive facial expressions after the play tell the tale:

3. Jayden Reed Is Down There Somewhere

On the opposite end of the Jordan Love big play spectrum was a launch to Jayden Reed. The video shows three Rams in close vicinity to Reed but two really had a good chance to make a play on the ball when it was thrown. Instead, Jayden Reed came down with it to set up a two-yard touchdown run for Josh Jacobs.

The back-and-forth game between the Rams and Packers ended up in a Green Bay win and a 1-4 Rams record. Los Angeles has been held together by Matthew Stafford playing above the sum of the offense’s parts, but they head into the bye with tough questions about the rest of the season.

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