The football offseason is officially over!
Well, not really. But we are getting professional football this weekend, as the XFL, which has had stints in 2001, 2020, and 2023 as a professional sports league, and the USFL, which had a run from 1983-1985 and 2022-2023, merged to make the UFL: an eight-team, two-conference league that will play over the next three months.
Just like everything at Sumer, we have a model for that, which is very similar to our model for the NFL, which you can find here. Last season, our preseason simulation did pretty well, and was on the right side of 19 season win totals. We’ve simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times, with our predicted results below.
Enjoy!
Birmingham Stallions
2023 results: 8-2 in USFL, two-time reigning USFL champions
Head coach: Skip Holtz
Quarterback: J’Mar Smith, Adrian Martinez, and Matt Corral
Market odds to win UFL: +270 (FanDuel)
Sumer projections: 5.7 wins, +334 to win the title
St. Louis Battlehawks
2023 results: 7-3 in XFL
Head coach: Anthony Becht
Quarterback: A.J. McCarron
Market odds to win UFL: +450
Sumer projections: 5.6 wins, +475 to win the title
San Antonio Brahmas
2023 results: 3-7 in XFL
Head coach: Wade Phillips
Quarterback: Chase Garbers
Market odds to win UFL: +1200
Sumer projections: 5.3 wins, +627 to win the title
DC Defenders
2023 results: 9-1 in XFL, lost in XFL championship game
Head coach: Reggie Barlow
Quarterback: Jordan Ta’amu
Market odds to win UFL: +400
Sumer projections: 5.1 wins, +707 to win the title
Arlington Renegades
2023 results: 4-6 in XFL, reigning XFL champions
Head coach: Bob Stoops
Quarterback: Luis Perez
Market odds to win UFL: +600
Sumer projections: 5.0 wins, +736 to win the title
Memphis Showboats
2023 results: 5-5 in USFL
Head coach: John DeFilippo
Quarterback: Case Cookus
Market odds to win UFL: +950
Sumer projections: 4.8 wins, +878 to win the title
Michigan Panthers
2023 results: 4-6 in USFL, lost in semifinals of USFL playoffs
Head coach: Mike Nolan
Quarterback: E.J. Perry, Brian Lewerke, and Danny Etling
Market odds to win UFL: +1000
Sumer projections: 4.3 wins, +1618 to win the title
Houston Roughnecks
2023 results: 7-3 in XFL (technically the Roughnecks from the XFL folded and the Gamblers from the USFL, 5-5 in 2023, rebranded)
Head coach: Curtis Johnson
Quarterback: Reid Stinnett
Market odds to win UFL: +1300
Sumer projections: 4.2 wins, +1745 to win the title
