2024 UFL Projections

by Eric Eager|March 27, 2024

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The football offseason is officially over! 

Well, not really. But we are getting professional football this weekend, as the XFL, which has had stints in 2001, 2020, and 2023 as a professional sports league, and the USFL, which had a run from 1983-1985 and 2022-2023, merged to make the UFL: an eight-team, two-conference league that will play over the next three months. 

Just like everything at Sumer, we have a model for that, which is very similar to our model for the NFL, which you can find here. Last season, our preseason simulation did pretty well, and was on the right side of 19 season win totals. We’ve simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times, with our predicted results below.  

Enjoy! 

 

Birmingham Stallions 

2023 results: 8-2 in USFL, two-time reigning USFL champions 

Head coach: Skip Holtz 

Quarterback: J’Mar Smith, Adrian Martinez, and Matt Corral 

Market odds to win UFL: +270 (FanDuel) 

Sumer projections: 5.7 wins, +334 to win the title  

 

St. Louis Battlehawks 

2023 results: 7-3 in XFL 

Head coach: Anthony Becht 

Quarterback: A.J. McCarron  

Market odds to win UFL: +450 

Sumer projections: 5.6 wins, +475 to win the title 

 

San Antonio Brahmas  

2023 results: 3-7 in XFL 

Head coach: Wade Phillips 

Quarterback: Chase Garbers  

Market odds to win UFL: +1200 

Sumer projections: 5.3 wins, +627 to win the title 

 

DC Defenders 

2023 results: 9-1 in XFL, lost in XFL championship game 

Head coach: Reggie Barlow 

Quarterback: Jordan Ta’amu 

Market odds to win UFL: +400 

Sumer projections: 5.1 wins, +707 to win the title 

 

Arlington Renegades  

2023 results: 4-6 in XFL, reigning XFL champions 

Head coach: Bob Stoops 

Quarterback: Luis Perez 

Market odds to win UFL: +600 

Sumer projections: 5.0 wins, +736 to win the title 

 

Memphis Showboats 

2023 results: 5-5 in USFL 

Head coach: John DeFilippo 

Quarterback: Case Cookus 

Market odds to win UFL: +950 

Sumer projections: 4.8 wins, +878 to win the title 

 

Michigan Panthers 

2023 results: 4-6 in USFL, lost in semifinals of USFL playoffs 

Head coach: Mike Nolan 

Quarterback: E.J. Perry, Brian Lewerke, and Danny Etling 

Market odds to win UFL: +1000 

Sumer projections: 4.3 wins, +1618 to win the title 

 

Houston Roughnecks 

2023 results: 7-3 in XFL (technically the Roughnecks from the XFL folded and the Gamblers from the USFL, 5-5 in 2023, rebranded) 

Head coach: Curtis Johnson 

Quarterback: Reid Stinnett  

Market odds to win UFL: +1300 

Sumer projections: 4.2 wins, +1745 to win the title 

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