The NFL combine is a four-day invitation-only event that occurs annually for NFL scouts to continue their evaluation of NFL prospects. The key emphasis is on “continue” given many scouts have watched film and started to form an initial opinion based on a player’s production and skills. Those same scouts may have attended the East-West Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl and have seen the players in person in a practice setting (even performing player interviews). This helps to formulate an initial draft board for NFL teams.
Public content pieces such as mock drafts or big boards can be helpful to understand the market’s perspective on where a player’s perceived future value is and can help teams understand where a player is relative to their draft board. This gives an initial estimate of player availability. Up until this point, teams have formed what us mathematicians referred to as a point estimate prediction on a player (a single prediction value). Where the combine or pro day provides value is through the verification and validation of a given player. This starts to formulate a mental model for uncertainty or risk tolerance for a given team. Risk tolerance is based on the following factors:
- medical evaluation
- character interviews
- football knowledge
- physical criteria
The first three can have more ambiguity in measuring but physical criteria lead teams to have ranges for desired attributes: “must absolutely have”, “can win with”, and “would elevate the role”. An example of “would elevate the role” may be Lamar Jackson’s Pro Day 4.34 unofficial 40-yard dash. Physical criteria of “must absolutely have” may be a team not considering a QB unless they are greater than six feet tall. Obviously if a player excels in other areas, they may be able to look past a player’s deficiency in a certain physical criterion.
This leads to why “opt-outs” are more common.
Opt-Outs
Players are opting out of events at the combine in an increasing way. If teams have hard and fast rules around a measurable, why give them something that could exclude you from their consideration? From a player’s perspective, a drop in draft position is massive. The average guaranteed dollar amount from a top 5 pick to that drafted in the back half of the first round is almost a ~$20M difference in rookie contract guaranteed contract value. Sliding from a late 2nd round pick (bottom half) to an early day 3 pick can cost a player nearly $3M in overall guaranteed contract value.
This can be a big reason why guys stay for another year in the NIL era (“a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future”). From that standpoint, it is easy to understand more of why players decide to limit the information flow they give to teams and focus on the information that highlights their strengths. This validation and verification portion of the process has many touch points (Combine, Pro Day, In-House visits) that scouts will eventually get the answer to looming questions. It some cases some underclassmen will get measured and verified at Pro Days a year prior to declaring to give an early indication of where they might land in the draft and what maybe they need to improve upon going into their final season. Simply put, how can I lower my risk tolerance.
Event Prep
For some players needing to elevate their expected draft position, they will hire outside coaches to train for the combine or pro day. Xavier Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record this past season and earned him a selection in the first round from the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2005, Matt Jones was drafted in the first round after switching positions from QB in college to WR/TE for the Jaguars after posting a combine where he measured at 6-6, 242, running a 4.37 and a 39.5 inch vertical. Vernon Davis a year after shot up draft boards after putting out a 4.4 40-yard dash and 33 bench press reps.
There’s countless examples of guys elevating their stock to which companies like Exos have prepped countless athletes for their biggest interview yet. Because of the increase in prep for the combine, teams have turned to tracking data to derive a player’s on-field speed. This helps to validate if a player is actually that fast or if they are prepped for the event. Of course, in some positions like defensive back, you may only see a player’s top speed on-field if they blew a coverage so there is presence of survivorship bias when looking at on-field speed. If a player never gets the opportunity to show case top end speed on the field because of the scheme or play calls, then events like the combine or pro day can help to show case how fast they are. Having both information is valuable as part of the verification and validation process.
Analytics can provide a good “filter” for what events truly matter for different positions (Tej Seth wrote a great piece detailing what events to watch out for). For instance, weight matters a lot for both future production and draft position for RBs. 40 time doesn’t have high correlation with future production but does influence draft position. This can help to provide a point of view of NFL teams in terms of calculating their risk tolerance for a given prospect.
Top Players to Watch For
The 2024 Draft class had a few players who skyrocketed their draft status, which my colleague Sam Bruchhaus wrote a great piece on last year as to what to expect next post combine. Braden Fiske, Joe Alt, Isaac Guerendo (mentioned Worthy prior) were among the many who made NFL scouts take a second look at their evaluations. For the 2025 NFL Combine, there’s a few prospects that I have my eye on that can shine at this event.
It’s easy in who to watch out for just to pick those in the top of the mock drafts, which is why I will shy away from putting Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter at every spot here although they have proven their athletic prowess throughout this past season and will likely not need to participate in the combine.
Here’s a player at each position that I’m watching at this year’s combine:
Quarterback
Jalen Milroe (Alabama) might end up being the guy in this draft cycle with all the tools you’d want in a prospect. He’s fast (4.4-4.5 on-field estimate), has great arm strength (hopefully he throws at the combine), and may end up performing well in the 3-cone drill, which has underrated value for QBs because it can display their flexibility as well as balance in their footwork. The knocks for him may be on physical measurements, such as hand size, and accuracy consistency between throws, which may put into question a team’s risk tolerance.
- Honorable Mention: Riley Leonard (Notre Dame)
Running Back
TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State) is coming off a national championship where he displayed many explosive plays both in the running game as well as in the screen game. He will excel in the drills with an estimated 4.4 on-field speed, and I think will show an excellent 10-yard split which is key to show explosiveness for RBs. I’d be curious if he could drop into the 4.3s 40-yard dash. His frame is a bit smaller for a RB at the next level (estimated at 5-9, 208), which his film may at times show inability to break tackles of NFL size defenders. He has had a history of foot injuries so that may be something teams look to validate as part of the process.
- Honorable Mention: Brashard Smith (SMU)
Wide Receiver
Jalen Royals (Utah State) is very similar to Henderson. He’s an electric prospect on the field if you have ever watched his film and will have speed at the combine in drills. I think what we won’t see on camera will be the items dinged against him as his physical measurements (arm, hand, wingspan, etc.) and foot injury that required him to miss the rest of the 2024 season may put into question a lot of scouts’ risk tolerance.
- Honorable Mention: LaJohntay Wester (Colorado)
Tight End
Colston Loveland (Michigan) was the bright spot for the 2024 Michigan offense and key offensive weapon for the 2023 national championship team. If you have read Bruce Feldman’s “Freak’s List” you will see Loveland’s name mentioned throughout. The combine will be an interesting time for him to separate himself because he has had great film and on-field production that are of interest to NFL front offices. He has an estimated 4.5-4.6 on-field speed and great route running ability (97% percentile in our all-in-one pass route score for TEs). This is all while being an estimated 6-5 245 (taller and skinnier than Travis Kelce). This may cause some concerns in his development as a TE given the need to create push off the line in run blocking scenarios. With his height, I think he could shock some people with his broad jump and shuttle run, and I would be curious if he participates in the bench press to show his overall strength, which can help to elevate his TE draft stock.
- Honorable Mention: Bryson Nesbit (North Carolina)
Offensive Line
Armand Membou (Missouri) could be an interesting prospect with an OL class that’s looking for clearer separation and one that features a lot of guys who will be looking to switch positions at the next level. He’s 6-3, 332 lbs., with 34-inch arms was clocked at running a 1.63 10-yard split. For context, Bucky Irving ran a 1.54 10-yard split at the 2024 NFL Combine and is nearly half his weight. In Bruce Feldman’s freaks list he quotes Missouri’s S&C coach as him being able to clock 20 mph on GPS, squat 650 lbs., bench 425 lbs. He could put on a show in Indianapolis. He might end up getting consideration for the first OL selected by the time April rolls around.
- Honorable Mention: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
Defensive Line
This defensive line class is full of athletic specimens and while he may at times get overshadowed by his teammates (Graham, Stewart) Kenneth Grant (Michigan) may take the crown for most athletic big man in this class. Before reading this breakdown, do yourself a favor and look up Kenneth Grant chase down Kaytron Allen. At 6-3 350 lbs., we shouldn’t even be mentioning a guy with a chase down video of his size. Harbaugh was quoted as saying that Grant is capable of running a sub-5.0 40-yard dash, which is crazy to process. Our on-field estimates had him clocked at 4.94 speed. Look for him to also put on a show in the 3 cone, L-drill and shuttle drills which are critical to show defensive line footwork.
- Honorable Mention: Jordan Burch (Oregon)
Edge
It’s easy in this spot to just pick Abdul Carter as we saw him burst off the edge during the playoffs with one working shoulder (which might indicate him not participating in the combine). However, Mike Green (Marshall) might be a can’t miss prospect when it comes to the 2025 NFL Combine (just look at the Senior Bowl clip against Josh Connerly Jr.). His balance, explosion and bend are as good as it gets in the class. He should be able to showcase his 10-yard split, shuttle, and 3 cone drill with ease at the combine.
I think he may be incentivized to perform well at the bench press given he’s showcased on field as a speed rusher and needs to show more qualities of an all-around pass rusher. Bruce Feldman had him quoted at 4.57 40-speed, benching 405 lbs, and squatting 525 lbs. There was a body frame concern (a bit lighter) from what he was measured last spring but from his measurements at the Senior Bowl (6-3 251), he has put on weight throughout the 2024 season. Some scouts may be concerned with an arm length being 32 ¼ (Senior Bowl measurements) but superb combine performance may end up making him a steal for a team passing on him due to measurements.
- Honorable Mention: James Pearce Jr (Tennessee)
Linebacker
Carson Schwesinger (UCLA) had a breakout 2024 season at UCLA with 137 total tackles, 18 pressures, and 2 INTs. He’s gotten rave reviews about his explosiveness and ability to chase down baccks. He will be a big story throughout the draft cycle from being a former 2 star to leading the Big 10 in total tackles. The drills I am most interested in seeing him are any hip fluidity drills where he can showcase his change of pace. This shows instincts in the ability to react to the run & coverage game. The fact he can blitz well in an off-ball ability shows his athleticism as well. The combine will be important in terms of verifying that on-field explosiveness given he had one breakout season of film.
- Honorable Mention: Nickolas Martin (Oklahoma State)
Defensive Backs
Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina) is a guy who should have a strong showing at the combine and was #11 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks list. He’s 6-3 227 with estimated 4.3-4.4 on-field speed, a 42-inch vertical and can put up 24 reps on the bench press. With those numbers you can pretty much play all DBs spots and as an off-ball linebacker. Being scheme agnostic during the evaluation process will turn some heads in terms of his draft stock. With his size, the hip fluidity/wave/3 cone drills will be critical for him to showcase he has good reaction and change of pace.
Honorable Mention: Shavon Revel Jr. (East Carolina)
