Thanksgiving is a special time of year in the football calendar. The road to the playoffs becomes clear and contending NFL teams dig their heels in for a postseason push. However, for the other teams and fan bases, Thanksgiving is the unofficial start to my favorite season: NFL Draft season.
This weekend is the final week of the College Football regular season. Once we return from Thanksgiving, the all-star games will start to announce their daily additions to their rosters, and we will be officially underway. This article is for that latter batch of fans and teams, the ones who are ready to turn the page to 2025 and look forward to this upcoming April’s draft.
Before we start the mock draft, we need to lay out some ground rules:
- There are no trades in this mock draft
- We are using the current Tankathon draft order heading into Week 13
- We’ll be sticking as close as possible to the Mock Draft Database Consensus Big Board.
With that said – Jacksonville is now on the clock.
NFL Draft Picks 1 through 5
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Hunter, WR/CB – Colorado
2. New York Giants: Shedeur Sanders, QB – Colorado
3. Las Vegas Raiders: Cam Ward, QB – Miami
4. New England Patriots: Tetaiora McMillan, WR – Arizona
5. Carolina Panthers: Will Johnson, CB – Michigan
With the #1 pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Travis Hunter
While the Jaguars are having a disappointing season, I’m am not selling franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is currently just outside the top quarter in SumerSports’ advanced all-in-one passing metric, so this isn’t necessarily a quarterback issue. Luckily for them, it seems like there’s a generational prospect sitting at 1: two-way player Travis Hunter.
Obviously, if you’re Jacksonville, you’re taking calls here from quarterback needy teams, but I’m not sure this is the draft you’ll be getting a ton of return for the 2021 Number 1 overall pick.
Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward?
The question after Hunter is which quarterback is going to go off the board first, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Miami’s Cam Ward. Here are some data points to consider:
- Sanders leads our advanced accuracy metric and is in around the 75th percentile in our decision-making metric.
- Cam Ward is over the 90th percentile in our decision making and timing metrics
As of writing this article, Sanders is ahead of Ward in the public’s consensus, so we’ll give the nod to him.
McMillan and Horn to round out the top 5
New England adds a weapon for their franchise quarterback, Drake Maye. Tetaiora McMillan is a big body receiver (6’5” and 212 pounds) and is currently in the 95th percentile in our advanced all-in-one receiving grade.
I mocked Will Johnson to the Panthers due to the uncertainty of Jaycee Horn’s future with the team. He’ll be going into the last year of his deal and until a multi-year extension is signed, I expect a corner to be a popular pick for Carolina.
NFL Draft Picks 6 through 10
6. Tennessee Titans: Jalen Milroe, QB – Alabama
7. New York Jets: Abdul Carter, ED – Penn State
8. Cleveland Browns: Will Campbell, OT – LSU
9. New Orleans: Mason Graham, DT – Michigan
10. Cincinnati Bengals: Luther Burden III, WR – Missouri
Will Levis has struggled at quarterback for the Titans this year. He’s near the bottom of our advanced passing grades, including decision making, timing and sack avoidance. Milroe is seen as an outstanding athlete and is in the 96th percentile in sack avoidance.
NY Jets strengthen edge rush with Abdul Carter
There are a lot of questions regarding the future of the Jets. They are going to have a new head coach and new general manager next season, and we still don’t know the future of their star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. What we do know is that both of their starting offensive tackles are not under contract in 2025. So, I was very tempted to put LSU’s Will Campbell in that spot and pair him with Olu Fashanu. However, the Jets need help at edge rusher. Will McDonald is having a solid season; he’s currently in the 87th percentile in one of our pass rush metrics, but he needs someone opposite him. Abdul Carter is currently 95th percentile or better in all our advanced metrics.
Cleveland Browns scoop up Campbell at #8
The Jets passing on Will Campbell is great news for the Browns. It looks unlikely that the Browns are going to resign left tackle Jedrick Wills this offseason. Will Campbell has been LSU’s left tackle for three seasons and is currently in the 92nd percentile or better in both AI run blocking and pass blocking metrics.
New Orleans Saints take the next best: Mason Graham
The Saints are going to be a hard team to mock for the next couple of months. They are $60 million in the hole when it comes to the cap next season, so their roster could look very different in March. So, until then, I’m going to mock them with the highest rated overall player when it comes to the consensus big board. Graham is in the 96th percentile or better in both AI run defense and pass rush grade this season.
The new big 3 in Cincinatti: Burrow, Chase, and Luther Burden III
It looks like the Bengals are not going to be able to get a deal done with Tee Higgins this offseason. With his departure, the Bengals are going to have a void at receiver. Burden is a different receiver than Higgins. He comes in around 5’11″ and 200 pounds compared to Higgins 6’4″ and 220, but he’s a productive receiver. He’s in the 82nd percentile in our AI route running and 94th percentile in our AI route running metric.
NFL Draft Picks 11 through 15
11. Dallas Cowboys: Ashton Jeanty, RB – Boise State
12. Chicago Bears: Kelvin Banks, OT – Texas
13. Indianapolis Colts: Mykel Williams, ED – Georgia
14. Miami Dolphins, Malaki Starks, S – Georgia
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nic Scourton, ED – Texas A&M
I don’t know why, but Ashton Jeanty to Dallas just feels like something that will happen. Despite it flying in the face of accepted logic regarding drafting running backs in the draft. Meanwhile, the Bears could use some offensive line help, they are currently 31st in sacks per pass attempt. Kelvin Banks is in the 97th percentile of our AI pass blocking metric this season.
Now we move onto back-to-back Georgia players. Indianapolis doesn’t NEED an edge rusher, but sticking with the consensus board, there aren’t any players that fill a need around the 13th pick at the moment. So instead of reaching, they take Williams and pair him with Laiatu Latu and Kwity Paye considering Dayo Odeyingbo is a free agent this upcoming offseason.
I was tempted to give Miami an edge rusher at pick 14. I love Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, but they haven’t played a game together since Week 12 of last season due to injuries. They did add Chop Robinson in the first-round last season, but Emmanuel Ogbah is hitting free agency and, if history continues, the Dolphins are going to need a deep and talented edge group. Also worth point out, the entire safety trio of Marcus Maye, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer are hitting free agency next year.
Lastly, the Bucs will continue to bolster their defensive line. Two years after adding Calijah Kancey in the first round, they now add Nic Scourton from Texas A&M. Scourton is having a good 2024 season, currently above the 80th percentile in both run stuffing and pass rushing.
NFL Draft Picks 16 through 20
16. Los Angeles Rams: Jalon Walker, LB – Georgia
17. San Francisco 49ers: Kenneth Grant, DL – Michigan
18. Arizona Cardinals: James Pearce Jr., ED – Tennessee
19. Atlanta Falcons: Benjamin Morrison, CB – Notre Dame
20. Seattle Seahawks: Aireontae Ersery, OT – Minnesota
The Rams have done a great job adding young, productive talent to their defensive line in the last two drafts. They’ve added defensive linemen Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner. They’ve also added edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young. Now, they add a young piece to their linebacking corp.
For the 49ers, Kevin Givens is a free agent next year, leaving an open spot for an interior defensive lineman.
The Cardinals land James Pearce Jr., a player who was originally the consensus first overall pick back in the summer. Much of his drop has not been due to performance, but rather to his size. Despite that, Pearce is an outstanding athlete who is in the 99th percentile in AI pass rush get-off and 94th percentile in our pass rushing all-in-one metric.
The Falcons add Notre Dame’s Benjamin Morrison to replace Mike Hughes who is currently a free agent at the end of the season. And lastly, the Seahawks are currently 22nd in sacks per pass attempt, struggle in the run, and could use another tackle to play opposite former first round pick, Charles Cross. Ersery is currently in the 87th percentile in our AI run block grade.
NFL Draft Picks 21 through 25
21. Washington Commanders: Colston Loveland, TE – Michigan
22. Houston Texans: Jonah Savaiinaea, G – Arizona
23. Denver Broncos: Emeka Egbuka, WR – Ohio State
24. Los Angeles Chargers: Walter Nolen, DL – Ole Miss
25. Baltimore Ravens: Cameron Williams, OT – Texas
Former Pro-Bowler, Zach Ertz, is going to be a free agent this offseason and will be turning 35 next season. Washington gets his replacement in Colston Loveland, who is currently in the 98th percentile in AI receiving grade.
I was close to mocking a receiver like Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka or Texas’ Isaiah Bond to Houston with Stefon Diggs hitting free agency next season. However, I think the Texans’ need for interior offensive line help is just too great to pass up when Arizona’s Jonah Savaiinaea is still on the board. Neither of Houston’s’ guards are over the 32nd percentile in either of the AI run blocking or pass blocking metrics. Savaiinaea has had a solid year and is in the 89th percentile in our AI pass block metric.
Courtland Sutton is leading the Broncos in receiving yards this season with 744 yards. He’s turning 30 years-old next season and the closet receiver to him in receiving yards for the Broncos is seventh round pick Devaughn Vele with 361 yards. Emeka Egbuka is in the 89th percentile or better in both route running and YAC AI charting metrics.
I was tempted to put a receiver in this spot for the Chargers after the Harbaugh Bowl, but I understand that’s recency bias. My attention shifted to cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Asante Samuel Jr., who are both free agents this offseason. The Chargers’ need for a playmaker in the interior part of their defensive line stood out the most. Morgan Fox, Teair Tart and Poona Ford are all solid players but none of them are game changers. Ole Miss’ Walter Nolen is currently in 98th percentile of our AI run defense metric and 86th percentile in our AI pass rush metric.
Baltimore has a solid offensive line, but Patrick Mekhari and Ronnie Stanley are hitting free agency next year and, according to OverTheCap, the Ravens only have about $18 million in cap space. Cameron Williams could be the replacement if the Ravens are unable or unwilling to resign one of those players.
NFL Draft Picks 26 through 32
26. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shavon Revel Jr., CB – ECU
27. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Warren, TE – Penn State
28. Minnesota Vikings: Tyleik Williams, DL – Ohio State
29. Philadelphia Eagles: Shamar Stewart, ED – Texas A&M
30. Buffalo Bills: Isaiah Bond, WR – Texas
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Simmons, OT – Ohio State
32. Detroit Lions: Tyler Booker, G – Alabama
ECU cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. replaces Donte Jackson who is a free agent this season.
The Packers selecting Tyler Warren is a luxury pick given their greater need for defensive line help. We stretched here to secure Warren even though Tucker Kraft has had a solid year. Warren is in the 99th percentile in our AI receiving grade and route running AI charting metrics, which might be too good to pass up. At the worst it is another young weapon for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur.
With Jerry Tillery and Jihad Ward hitting free agency, the Minnesota Vikings could use another interior defensive lineman to pair with Harrison Phillips.
For the Eagles, it looks like Brandon Graham is going to retire and Josh Sweat is hitting free agency. Bryce Huff, who is on their 2025 roster, hasn’t played a ton this season and is currently hurt. Philadelphia might want to add some more quality depth and talent to their edge rusher group. Stewart is currently in the 99th percentile in our AI run defense grade.
Buffalo hangs around at 30 and gets the number 24 player on the consensus board. It’s unclear if Amari Cooper will be returning to Buffalo next season and the Bills only have $8 million in cap space, so it could get challenging. Here they add Isaiah Bond who is in the 92nd percentile this season in our AI receiving grade.
According to FTN, Patrick Mahomes is currently under pressure on 30% of his dropbacks, which is tied for 26th in the league. They add Ohio State’s Josh Simmons who is in the 100th percentile in our AI pass blocking grade to help fix that problem.
Finally, we get to our projected, according to Tankathon and Stats and Scheme co-host Tej Seth, Super Bowl winner – the Detroit Lions. Kevin Zeitler is a free agent and is going to be 35 next season. If he wins a Super Bowl with Detroit, he might just call it a career. If that’s the case, the Lions will have to replace a player, who even at 34 years-old, we put as a 1st Team All-Pro in our midseason All-Pro list. Those are some big shoes to fill for Alabama’s Tyler Booker, but he is currently in the 94th percentile in our AI pass blocking grade. So maybe he’s up for the challenge.
