As NFL teams head into training camp, all eyes are on the 2024 rookie quarterback class. Front offices selected six quarterbacks in the first round alone, a record since the league went to the seven-round draft format in 1994. Of those quarterbacks, at least five—Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix—appear to be poised to compete for a starting spot. What production can fans expect from these top quarterback prospects?
Rookie NFL Quarterbacks: Expectations and Performance Metrics
The primary goal of investing significant draft capital in a quarterback is to swiftly transform a team’s fortunes. The key to achieving this lies in securing the starting job. Of the 73 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 1999, 63 have made at least one start. Those players averaged:
- Just over 10 starts,
- About 2,262 yards passing,
- Around a 59% completion percentage,
- Near 12 touchdowns,
- And close to 10 interceptions.
Interestingly, these statistics closely mirror those of 2023 rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s stat line (10 games started, 2,218 yards passing, 62% completion percentage, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions). However, it’s worth noting that O’Connell was a 4th-round pick.
A deeper analysis reveals that these raw stats are closely tied to the player’s context. Take O’Connell for example, who was expected to back up Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo was acquired to start for the Las Vegas Raiders after ranking 4th in the league in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play in 2022. However, Garoppolo’s play regressed, injuries inhibited him, and ultimately O’Connell took over the starting job midseason.
As a result, it may be more instructive to look at rookie first-rounders’ advanced impact metrics. Unfortunately, starting a first-round draftee is not kind to the team’s spread value. According to nfelo, rookie first-round quarterbacks are typically associated with a decrease of about a point and a third with respect to the betting line. In terms of on-field results, rookie first-rounders typically have a win probability added per dropback between that of rookie quarterbacks Will Levis and Sam Howell in 2023. Interestingly, this does not deviate much for rookies who made a start until those drafted after the 15th pick in the draft.
| Draft Range | Count of Draftees Who Made a Start | Averages | |||||
| Games Started | Passing Yards | Completion Percentage | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Spread Value | ||
| Top Pick (1-5) | 34 | 11 | 2,452 | 59% | 12 | 11 | -1.3 |
| Mid-First (6-15) | 17 | 11 | 2,266 | 60% | 13 | 10 | -1.2 |
| Late First (15-32) | 12 | 9 | 1,718 | 59% | 8 | 8 | -1.8 |
| Day 2 | 27 | 8 | 1,487 | 59% | 7 | 7 | -2.0 |
| Day 3 | 36 | 4 | 840 | 57% | 4 | 5 | -3.4 |
The Reality of Drafting a First-Round NFL Quarterback
The real value, however, of drafting a quarterback highly is to change your franchise in the long term. So, while the first year is generally the focus for fans, the long-term evaluation of the player is often more important. To evaluate this, examining the first three years of a quarterback’s career is helpful. Despite first-round selections technically being under team control for five years, teams must decide on whether to exercise the fifth-year option after the third year. As a result, this is often when teams decide to extend or move on from a player. For example, every quarterback in the 2021 first-round class has either been extended or moved on from as of Training Camp 2024.
| Player | Draft Selection | Result |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1:1 | Extended (5YR/$275M) |
| Zach Wilson | 1:2 | Traded (2024) |
| Trey Lance | 1:3 | Traded (2023) |
| Justin Fields | 1:11 | Traded (2024) |
| Mac Jones | 1:15 | Traded (2024) |
The expectation for quarterbacks over the three-year period is much of the same as the first year. A first-round quarterback is expected to:
- Start about 31 games (~10 per season),
- Pass for around 6,748 yards (~2,249 per season),
- Complete about 61% of their passes,
- Score near 41 touchdowns through the air (~14 per season),
- And throw 27 interceptions (9 per season).
Given the changes in the game though, these aggregations may not properly paint the whole picture. Looking at impact metrics, first-round quarterbacks typically added about a win and a third to their team’s probability over their first three years. The closest comparable player to that total is Kenny Pickett. Another useful metric is the average seasonal spread value over their three seasons. First-round quarterbacks have an expected seasonal spread value of about -0.68, quite similar to Mitchell Trubisky’s output during his first three years.
So, while you can variably expect your highly touted quarterback to be in your life for the next three years, have a tempered expectation of what they will provide to the team. In short, expect them to be relatively productive, but probably a detriment to the team.
Many thanks to NFELO for their detailed quarterback statistics!
