After a brief aside into the world of Taylor Swift, the Hot Sauce Hot Takes are back!
The Bills-Lions game was more of a nightmare than a dream.
The cross-conference matchup between two top contenders, the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions, was the pinnacle of the NFL’s television product. It was immensely high scoring, ending at 48-42 – over 100 points combined – and featured two quarterbacks who will be receiving MVP votes accounting for a combined 937 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Despite that, as someone who has thought these teams have long-term prospects for the Super Bowl, this game was a chilling horror feature length film for me. You see, this was not a one-off explosion of titanic forces. It was yet another signifier that these two teams have extremely shaky defenses that could prove to be major liabilities for them in the postseason. Especially for two franchises with such accursed pasts, this should be a nightmare of the scariest type.
Let’s start with the Lions, because their spookiness is straightforward. They have lost virtually their entire defense. The Lions currently have 11 defensive players on the injured reserve list, including Aidan Hutchinson (who would’ve been on the shortlist for Defensive Player of the Year should he have been healthy) and Alex Anzalone (their veteran linebacking cornerstone). Meanwhile, they now have Alim McNeill (who received SumerSports Pro Bowl votes from both Shawn Syed and Tej Seth of the Stats & Scheme podcast) and Carlton Davis (whom the Lions spent primo draft capital on back in March) listed as out. To summarize, the Lions are missing their top players at nearly every position sans safety. And given the way the NFL works, that is a recipe for a disastrous defense, which we have seen in recent weeks. Against the top-tier-talented Packers and Bills in the past two weeks, they have:
- Given up 79 total points,
- Are dead last expected points added allowed per rush,
- And are the third worst defense by expected points added per play.
The grand fear is they simply don’t have the bodies on the defense to compete with a high scoring team. Luckily, the quarterbacks in the NFC are not as strong as the AFC, so the Lions may be able to make a playoff run simply by their offensive firepower alone.
On the other hand, I have substantially worse fears for the Buffalo Bills. Don’t get me wrong, Josh Allen looks like he could beat anyone right now. But I have immense concerns about their defense, which, frankly, was the concern about this team coming into the year. While having their core guys such as Taron Johnson, Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and even stalwart Matt Milano in the lineup, they have given up an even more putrid point total – 86 – in the last two weeks. While they have been slightly above average in the run game, they are the third worst against the pass in terms of expected points added per attempt. This could be related to some injury issues in the secondary, but Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp played against the Rams and were listed as questionable against the Lions.
If you would’ve asked me two weeks ago, I would have told you that the Lions were the top team in the league and the Bills were certainly poised to make a push.
This week, despite the glorification of Josh Allen and Jared Goff’s performances, I think that these teams now both sit solidly in a second tier (below healthy versions of the Chiefs and Eagles) in terms of Super Bowl sentiment. What has become abundantly clear is that if either of these teams make a run, it is going to come coupled with lots (and lots, and lots) of points.
And the College Football Scovie Awards Go To…
For those of you who are not as plugged in to the hot sauce industry as me, a Scovie Award is the top of the mountain for those who enjoy creating lovely, peppered accoutrements. Named after the Scoville scale which measures the spiciness of chili peppers and other pepper-based substances, the Scovies give an annual “who’s who” of the pepper world. In true HSHT fashion, we had to give out a few for our boys back in school who have intrigued us this year.
Most Likely to Get Upsettingly Hot: Blake Horvath
Though Navy faltered late in their American Conference schedule, which pushed them out of a potential playoff spot, their young quarterback Blake Horvath had a penchant for catching absolute fire and scalding teams that were seemingly ranked higher than the Midshipmen.
We first saw this phenomenon against Memphis, where he put up an eye-watering near 30 points of expected points added across the rushing and passing attacks in an upset win against a Tigers team that ended the season ranked with only 2 losses.
Then Horvath etched his name in Navy history by absolutely exploding against a ranked Army team this past week. Horvath put up over 300 yards of offense and 4 touchdowns against the Black Knights of the Hudson, allowing Navy to cruise to a 31-13 victory against their bitter rivals.
Unfortunately, we probably won’t get to see Horvath get to play against SumerSports All-American Danny Stutsman as Stutsman seems primed to leave Oklahoma before their bowl game matchup for draft preparation, but Horvath’s ability to go supernova will not be lost to the good readers of Hot Sauce Hot Takes.
Most Likely to Go on Everything: Kyle McCord
At the beginning of the season, Kyle McCord outwardly appeared to have been excused from his starting role as the Ohio State quarterback, banished to the Finger Lakes, never to be heard of again.
Instead, he led the Orange to an end-of-season ranking, a couple big time wins, many (many!) statistics, and an iconic lip sync.
McCord once again finished in the Top 20 of ESPNs QBR metric and was first in expected points added on pass attempts with low leverage plays down-weighted. Moreover, he just threw the ball around the yard a whole lot. He racked up:
- The most passing completions,
- The most passing attempts
- The most passing yards,
- The fifth most passing touchdowns,
- The eight most interceptions,
- The (tied) 38th most sacks
My boy was doing a lot of things out there! He was fun to watch! He brought Syracuse back! He allowed Fran Brown to shower!
Most Likely to Have a Sneaky Heat: Ricky White III
Ricky White may not have lived quite up to last year’s All-American recognition, but he got darn close, and made one of the most compelling cases of any to be drafted.
Let’s review his offensive contributions from his wide receiver spot.
- He had a 1000-yard season.
- He topped his touchdown total from last year, scoring 11.
- He helped create the 15th most expected points added receiving.
But where Ricky White separated himself from the pack was on special teams. He was an absolute demon on that end, blocking multiple punts en route to being named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year.
When I was a young walk-on at Tulane, my wise coach Willie Fritz would always tell us that the best way to get on the field at any more competitive level is special teams. White III clearly took that to heart, as now he is one of my biggest highlights for the pre-draft process for late round picks.
Most Likely to Be Able to Actually Sell a Hot Sauce Brand with His Face on It (or perhaps run for office?): Ashton Jeanty
Look, I have been going on any platform that will have me to extol why Travis Hunter should have been the Heisman. And for it, I received an army of angry replies, texts, and bots (?) responding to me that “snaps aren’t a real stat”.
But members of the Jeanty Hive, I come in peace. Instead of cashing in on his NIL value, which if Twitter is to be believed, could organize thousands in mere seconds to buy anything from t-shirts to hot sauce, it came to my attention this weekend that Jeanty is in fact a “team guy”. He showed up in his Boise State threads, puttin’ on for the smaller school, to the Heisman media sessions.
And for this, I became an Ashton Jeanty guy. Between him being an old school back and teammate, he has crowned himself as one of the top “ethical ball” guys of all time. I encourage him to run for office soon, as we need more young men in D.C. who can smile for the camera while being a team player, right before he runs over you and your 10 friends for an 80-yard touchdown.
