This summer, I got a little bit too into kickoffs. The NFL’s new dynamic kickoff rule gave me reason to watch, chart, and analyze a season of XFL kickoffs. I then went through all of the preseason kickoffs and decided the only logical step would be to continue my progression down the kickoff rabbit hole into the regular season. Only time can tell us if NFL kickoff units justify a weekly update for this column. To borrow some words from the Wolf of the North Cregan Stark, this is not a sentence, but an honor.
In this week’s Kickoff Corner, you will find:
The Numbers That Matter
| Regular Season, 2023 | Week 1, 2024 | |
| Total Kickoffs | 2,698 | 172 |
| Average Field Position | 25.6 | 29.4 |
| Average Field Position on Returns | 27.2 | 28.0 |
| % of Kicks Returned | 23% | 33% |
The data from 2023 is from Pro Football Focus, and the data for 2024 Week 1 is courtesy of Michael Lopez of the NFL’s Data and Analytics department. There are three key takeaways:
- The increase in returned kick percentage may not be as high as the NFL wanted, but it is noteworthy.
- The average field position on returns is just two yards behind 30 yard-line spot after a touchback.
- The preseason’s 70.5% return rate was likely thanks to teams getting a feel for the new rules.
Let’s move the numbers to side for a second and dive into some kickoff film.
The Strategies
A Touchdown!
Before the ball is kicked, a return unit must first decide how to line up. There is some flexibility within the rules and teams have taken a few approaches: spread your blockers out evenly, overload a side, or be like the only team to return a kick for a touchdown in Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals approached their kick returns like many NFL teams treat the run game. They condensed more players to the inside of the formation knowing the kickoff team wanted to cover the entire width of the field. Arizona also left both edge players unblocked off the line the same way teams will leave cornerbacks unblocked as they try to take on shifty running backs in space. Arizona opened up a lane through the middle of the field and DeeJay Dallas ran his way into dynamic kickoff history:
On the DeeJay Dallas touchdown return you can see the Cardinals aligned with extra players inside while leaving both edge coverage players unblocked
It is similar to how NFL teams approach the run game: condense and force DBs into tough tackle situations pic.twitter.com/Eb4niZmztX
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
This is a Run Play Now
The new kickoff looks like an extended run play, and the best return teams are treating it as such. Return units should have an unfair numbers advantage if they decide to leave both outside coverage players unblocked when the ball is kicked to the middle as in the example above. They can also leave the opposite outside coverage player unblocked when the ball is kicked into the corner.
Leaving the kicker unblocked as well means the return unit has 10 blockers for either eight or nine coverage players. That is a real advantage that opens up double teams and other run game designs.
The Bears had the second longest return of opening weekend and ran what ended up looking like a counter run play. On counter, the offense uses one puller to block the end player on the line of scrimmage and a second puller leads up to the linebacker. For Chicago this meant a double team to the outside, a pull from the inside, and the second returner leading up into space:
Bears get a double team, a kick out puller, and the second returner leading through on what turns into counter blocking on a return
Coverage player follows the puller but it becomes 10 on 9 blocking when leaving an edge player + the kicker unblocked pic.twitter.com/9Vsg7x5Vkq
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
The Bills also took advantage of the numbers mismatch and used two double teams, a mini pull from one of their players off the return team line, and created an explosive play:
Bills using two double teams, a mini pull, and a lead blocker on a big kick return pic.twitter.com/njdYW8aFRV
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
Low Line Drive Kicks
After watching the XFL kickoffs, I wanted to see a low line drive kick in the regular season that bounced a few times before the returner had a chance to field the ball. In the XFL, the coverage unit was not able to start running until the ball was touched by the returner or the ball hit the ground in the 20-yard landing zone (the area on the return team’s side of the field from the goal line to their 20 yard-line) and was on the ground for three seconds.
This rule was created specifically to prevent a low line drive kick that is enabled by the NFL rules because the coverage players can start chasing the ball once it hits within the landing zone. A few teams stepped up to the plate to hit the line drive and returners had some difficulty dealing with odd bounces:
Loved this low line drive kick from Brayden Narveson and the Packers. Landed right at the 20 and became a hard ball to field pic.twitter.com/UtWPhZqK7O
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
Another low line drive/bouncing kick creating issues for the returner pic.twitter.com/OzojpdChhw
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
Another roller through the landing zone that ends up with a return short of the ~30 yard line average on returns pic.twitter.com/GN8tgIrwjI
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 10, 2024
This approach helped teams push returners behind the 30-yard touchback line. There is a real risk present that the ball bounces outside of the 20 yard-line, which would give the opponent the ball all the way at their own 40 yard-line.
The Recommendations
Based on the data and the film, I have two recommendations for the kickoff team and two recommendations for the return team.
- If you can, just kick it to the back of the end zone.
- If you are going to kick it in play, try a low line drive.
- Use run game concepts in your blocking schemes.
- Leave one or both of the outermost edge coverage players unblocked off the line until they prove they can impact your return.
The high number of touchbacks reduced my total watch time but also felt like a sound approach. The average starting field position in the preseason was just under the 29 yard-line, and the Week 1 average field position on return was decimal points below the 30 yard-line.
The downside risk of a big return is incredibly large, and a touchback nets you right around what you should expect on an average return. Fighting for a few yards is not worth it even though explosive returns are rare. If a kicker’s biggest boot does not force a touchback, mastering the low line drive could be an alternate approach.
Lopez did also later provide more detailed data about kicks that go deep into but not through the end zone. I would expect the data to end up sound in recommending an into the end zone kick for the situations where you are baiting a return team to take it out based on average starting field position. The response from return teams could be to change their rules for how far into the end zone they would take the ball out to avoid situations where they are consistently five yards behind the touchback line. It will be also interesting to see if there are any high-end return outcomes that coaches fear in those situations.
For return teams that are lucky enough to see the ball kicked in play, they should continue to try some blocking concepts that stem from the run game. Leaving the outermost player unblocked on one or both sides gives the return team flexibility in design, opens up double team possibilities, and can help create big plays to jumpstart an offense.
Cold weather cities and games with heavy winds may force more kicks into the field of play. Teams are also getting used to the new rules and are finding ways to make the most of it. Still, the already risk-averse nature of some coaches may be justified here as we monitor the overall touchback rate. If the NFL decides to move the touchback up to mirror the XFL’s 35 yard-line touchback, we may be having a different conversation.
