It’s almost here! And not a moment too soon, because we seem to have reached the “misdirection rumor” stage of the draft. Or maybe it’s the “so much information is starting to leak that it’s confusing rather than fun” stage of the draft. Or the “Lindsay’s brain has reached max capacity on this subject” stage of the draft. Yeah, one of those three things.
Either way, I’m excited to find out where everyone goes on Thursday (and Friday and Saturday). And since everyone else and their mom has a mock draft now, I’m going to wade into these waters as well… if for no other reason, than to have written proof that I was right about something. (Surely, I’ll be right about *something* here. Right?)
A quick note on trades: I’m not including trades in this exercise, and I’m going to spare you the “I think this team will try to trade down” note in every section. The draft gets flat fast, in my opinion, so assume I’m thinking that for every pick after 3.
Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
No one really needs commentary for this, right?
Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
See above. Hunter is the best WR in the draft AND the best CB in the draft. Andrew Berry compared him to Shohei Ohtani. He can’t NOT draft him after that.
New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Abdul Carter is #1 on consensus big boards in a draft where there is very little consensus. That has to mean something to the a team that hasn’t always nailed this process. Don’t overthink it. Take the guy everyone agrees is the best one available.
New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OL, LSU
New England allowed the 2nd highest pressure rate in the league last year (41%). That can’t happen again. They have to protect Drake Maye, to max out his development. I’d put Armand Membou here to mix this up, but he played RT exclusively in college and the Patriots need more help on the left side. I think that gives Campbell the edge here.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
I toyed with several different directions here, but I kept coming back to Mason Graham (and I’m incapable of being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian.) Jacksonville could use upgrades in a number of places, but I think they address the 2nd to last ranked defense in yards allowed with this pick and put Mason Graham on a line that already includes Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. I know there are fans that want Ashton Jeanty here. I don’t think it makes sense for them. Jags GM James Gladstone comes from LA where he saw them experience success with a 5th round running back. Liam Coen comes from Tampa Bay where Bucky Irving just proved to be a great pick for them in the 4th round. (Rachaad White was drafted in the 3rd.) Running backs don’t change losses to wins (see: Saquon in NY) , running backs turn wins into playoff wins (see: Saquon in PHI.)
Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Forget everything I just said for the Jags. Just kidding. I think Pete Carroll’s established desire to run the ball A LOT makes this a more likely pick for the worst rushing team in the league last year. (I also think if they added a strong slot player later- Egbuka? Burden?- the offense could look pretty darn good pretty quickly.) That said, there’s lots of RB depth in this draft, and Carroll’s a defensive guy, so he may choose to add a strong player on that side of the ball here. (If I sound like I’m waffling, it’s because I’m waffling. Running back this high is VERY uncomfortable for me from a positional value standpoint.)
New York Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Jets allowed the 9th most sacks, but had the 4th lowest pressure rate. (I think there’s a chance this is one thing Aaron Rodgers did well: get the ball out quickly before pressure could technically get there.) That said, they need to protect their new QB Justin Fields. They must give him his best shot. A clean pocket- or open holes- helps that. A good TE does too, admittedly. But there aren’t many true OTs in this draft. They can add a TE later.
Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
This scenario is ideal for them. If Walker and Graham are off the board here, I think this is where the draft gets complicated.
New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
The first 8 picks (though undoubtedly wrong, feel chalky to predict). THIS pick is where the draft gets weird. QB feels too early for this year’s crop of players. Tight End feels weird to me here. Defense needs a lot. They need an edge rusher to build around long-term. Mykel Williams feels like a safe pick from a school that consistently turns out defensive players that transition well to the NFL.
Chicago Bears: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
I toyed with the idea of putting Tyler Booker here- mauler of a pass blocker who can stuff the middle. Or Omarion Hampton, who would been fun in a backfield with Swift. I like the idea of a TE investment better though. Who knows if they like him or Warren better, but I like TE as a core piece to this offense more than RB, which they can add later. I like the idea of a safety blanket for Caleb. I like the idea of adding another offensive piece he can grow with. Johnson likes to run 12 personnel. He can do that with Kmet this yr, then have their main guy for the future.
San Francisco 49ers: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
I have injury-related questions about Will Johnson (and it sounds like teams might, also). That said, the versatile Barron feels like good fit here. He can play outside and in the slot. He’s even played a little free safety. Outstanding in zone coverage, he earned our “zone eyes” badge- meaning he was in the top 15th percentile in zone coverage. I like this fit. (I also like the idea of trading back a few spots for Josh Simmons as a potential cornerstone pick for them.)
Dallas Cowboys: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
This feels like a trap. But I also think it would be a misuse of mental resources to spend too much predicting what the Cowboys might do.
Miami Dolphins: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
Harmon is an ELITE pass rushing DT. 100th percentile in our Pass Rush SumerScore. He’s elite as a run defender, too (scores slightly lower than Kenneth Grant, but Grant is much further behind in Pass Rush SumerScore.) I’m giving Harmon the edge here. Also, like safety here, but Harmon’s ability to influence every play is prioritized.
Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
The Colts would throw a party if Tyler Warren was still there.
Atlanta Falcons: Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
Atlanta’s had a tough time nailing the edge rusher position. Green has a good blend of traits and production- the fact that the production is from a smaller school makes the evaluation trickier, but all of the remaining edge rushers have question marks attached.
Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama
Booker strikes me as a fit here, as a culture-setting, smash-your-face in, road-grading guard even though the Cardinals need help on the defensive side of the ball.
Cincinnati Bengals: Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
Stewart’s production questions could get a push in the right direction here, on a line with Trey Hendrickson. And if he flourishes, that could give the Bengals a little flexibility with Hendrickson.
Seattle Seahawks: Kelvin Banks Jr., OL, Texas
Banks is 98th percentile in our Pass Block SumerScore and 94th percentile Run Block SumerScore. A few OL experts think he’s going to be a guard in the NFL. That could be concerning for teams that specifically need a tackle. Seahawks could use him in both places. Slam dunk.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Bucs could go in a few defensive directions here, positionally (edge, corner, safety or linebacker.) Jihaad Campbell is the highest remaining (non-WR) player on the consensus big board.
Denver Broncos: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Have to consider this spot as a potential trade move-up spot for a team trying to get ahead of Pittsburgh for a QB, but I’m not sure teams will try that hard, personally. I really like Trey Henderson here, but Tet McMillan being there is too enticing for the Broncos to pass on. They can add a RB later.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Steelers are up against it at quarterback. More than the other teams that “need” quarterbacks, I think they have to leave this draft with a potential starter.
Los Angeles Chargers: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
The medicals are concerning, but if there’s anyone who can get to the bottom of that information and also knows what Johnson is capable of, it’s his former college coach, Jim Harbaugh.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
I thought about putting Emeka Egbuka here, but I don’t love the idea of putting a power slot guy on a roster where the best returning WR ran 76% of his routes from the slot. Simmons has the potential to be a high end left tackle, which is hard to find. The team that takes him has to be able to take on the risk of his medicals. I think the Packers check that box.
Minnesota Vikings: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Considered safety here, but went with a run stuffing DT. Grant Is 90th percentile in our Run Defense SumerScore. (His pursuit and getoff are both excellent). He’s also a strong pass rusher.
Houston Texans: Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State
Thought about Egbuka here (clearly a fan of Egbuka), but I feel like Houston has to go OL. Especially with Grey Zabel on the board. One of the stars of the Senior Bowl, he helps the Texans give CJ Stroud the time he needs to succeed.
Los Angeles Rams: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
This almost feels like cheating, the fit is so good. (I swear I didn’t cheat.) I’d run up the card if I was the Rams. Egbuka running the Kupp/Woods routes in McVay’s offense is *chefs kiss.*
Baltimore Ravens: Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Best player available. Don’t hate Nick Emmanwori here either.
Detroit Lions: James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
Pearce has a 22% pressure rate and 21% pressure rate against quality offenses. (Both are excellent.) He checks production AND athleticism boxes. He’s available here due to non-football related concerns, the Lions bank on the team they have in place being able to manage those well.
Washington Commanders: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
He feels like a Dan Quinn style safety and helps strengthen the pass defense. Malaki Starks is available also. He had a 3rd percentile Coverage SumerScore in 2024 though. 3rd. He closes well- has a “tracker” badge in our draft guide- and doesn’t miss tackles. But that 3rd percentile coverage score…
Buffalo Bills: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
The Bills are exactly the level of team that can add a 1st round running back and have that move pay off. Plus, what’s going on with James Cook?
Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
Anyone see the Super Bowl?
Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
The ability to take the best player available without any stress to fill a need is a luxury Howie Roseman has earned.
Sidenote: while I think this is the “trade down” draft in general, I think the Eagles are a team to keep an eye on as a potential mover in the other direction. They have tons of picks next year. That gives them some leeway to maybe part with picks to move up for a specific guy they might want.
The mock draft no one asked for but I passionately did anyway… 😂
LET’S GOOOOOO!@SumerSports #NFLDraft2025 pic.twitter.com/9IvEfUcwmb
— Lindsay Rhodes (@lindsay_rhodes) April 23, 2025
