You can’t watch anything college football related without getting a mention of the transfer portal. The transfer portal, college’s version of free agency, has brought some level of parity to college football. It is one of the reasons we are talking about an Indiana team who brought in high performers from all areas of college football such as Kurtis Rourke (Ohio), D’Angelo Ponds (JMU), Justice Ellison (Wake Forest), Myles Price (Texas Tech), and Trey Wedig (Wisconsin) to name a few. With the expansion to a 12-team playoff, the portal gives an opportunity for more FBS programs to be competitive.
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What is the Transfer Portal?
The transfer portal itself is a web application that allows student athletes to place their name in an online database with their intent on desiring to transfer. Within days of entering their name into the portal, schools are allowed to contact the player and make their pitch for coming to their school.
The interesting thing for this year’s portal is the time frame as the time period for contacting a player was reduced in October of 2024 for the 2025 winter portal from 30 days to 20 days. This year’s winter portal will be open officially on December 9th and close on December 28th.
The portal first launched in 2018, but the new era of the portal was felt starting in 2021 where the rules were changed so that a player “could transfer once without sitting out a year after the transfer”. As shown below, we’ve seen a gradual increase in those entering and transferring schools for those players who originated at an FBS school each year since 2021.
One interesting insight gleaned from this graph is the scarcity at some premium positions (OB, OT, DL) entering the portal (although we have seen an increase). Schools needing a premier edge rusher have had to turn to a retention strategy in retaining their highly touted edge rusher or look at options in FCS. Jared Verse, Kobie Turner (now both with the LA Rams) are two such players who started on FCS teams before moving to the FBS level. Still, not every player tempted to hit the portal needs to. Quinyon Mitchell excelled at Toledo and is holding up as a star in his rookie season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Transfer Portal Archetypes
Based on transfer portal data, there are trends that have emerged about the types of players that enter the portal. Though each player’s story is different, here is how we can group some of the most common types of player movement.
Stat Leaders at Group of 5 schools
One area has shown an increase in transfer activity: players who excelled at certain stats at the group of 5 level. Players who are leaders in sacks, passing yards, and rushing yards seek to enter the portal to gain interest from bigger programs. With the expanded 12-team football playoff and a path for a premier G5 program to be seen at a national scale, this could be something we see more regularly.
Take players who lead their teams in target share for example. In the past few seasons, we have seen some premier talent enter the transfer portal to test if that same production would hold in a receiving room that has targets more distributed. We have seen the following players make such a jump:
- LaJohntay Wester: Florida Atlantic -> Colorado
- Chris Brazzell: Tulane -> Tennessee
- Tez Johnson: Troy -> Oregon
- J. Daniels: Liberty -> LSU
C.J. Daniels is a perfect example of how playing in a premier bowl game (Fiesta Bowl against Oregon: 8 catches, 79 yards) could catch the eye of a P4 program. Tez Johnson may have increased his draft stock by proving the high target share was not just a fluke by having similar production numbers at Oregon. Nearly 42% of G5 target leaders switched schools after the 2022 and 2023 season. This is an area that could increase as more parity comes to college football. Target shares is just one example, but looking for those who excelled at the G5 level can pay dividends for P4 schools. Here are some other notable examples of guys who transferred from G5 to P4 programs:
- O’Cyrus Torrence: Louisiana -> Florida
- Ivan Pace Jr: Miami (OH) -> Cincinnati
- Braden Fiske: Western Michigan -> Florida State
- Josaiah Stewart: Coastal Carolina -> Michigan
As we can see below, the number of transfers that have originated from G5 or FBS Independents schools has increased significantly over the years across all positions. This could indicate P4 schools are building depth at key positions from G5 high performers.
Crowded P4 Position Room
One other area we have seen transfers in years past is from a crowded P4 position room. High profile recruiting programs (Alabama, Georgia, etc.) recruit heavily out of high school and often bring in several talented players at the same position each year to keep the talent level up. This can cause an odd man out situation to which a transfer can benefit a player’s future worth. Here are a few players who were buried on the depth chart that saw success elsewhere:
- Bucky Irving: Minnesota -> Oregon
- Quinn Ewers: Ohio State -> Texas
- AD Mitchell: Georgia -> Texas
- Spencer Rattler: Oklahoma -> South Carolina
Coaching Changes
Coaching changes was one of the original rules that allowed a player 30 days to explore other schools at any time if a coach were to be let go, retire, or change schools. It has led to immense turnover at schools like Alabama (2023 after Nick Saban retired), Oregon State (Jonathan Smith took the Michigan State job after the 2023), and Texas A&M. Often schools who missed out on a player during high school recruiting make an additional pitch for a player to transfer based on their previous connection. Coaching changes are unpredictable and hard to plan for given the time period for entering the portal can happen at any time, which is why P4 schools will look to add a few players to bolster their depth. Here are a few notable players who changed schools after a coaching change:
- Caleb Williams: OU -> USC; following Lincoln Riley
- Jaxson Dart: USC -> Ole Miss
- Caleb Downs: Alabama -> Ohio State
- Jermod McCoy: Oregon State -> Tennessee
- Isaiah Bond: Alabama -> Texas
Change of Scenery
Players who had a volatile playing career can sometimes benefit from being in a new place and given a fresh start. There may be outside issues causing volatile performance: scheme fit, proximity to home, playing time, etc. Playing in a new place can give motivation of a blank slate and create some good for player performances. Here are some players that have seemed to benefit from playing at a new school:
- Bo Nix: Auburn -> Oregon
- Haynes King: Texas A&M -> Georgia Tech
- J. Green: Arizona State -> Colorado
- Quinshon Judkins: Ole Miss -> Ohio State
- Theo Wease: Oklahoma -> Missouri
P4 Top Performers
Playing well at a P4 school will gain the interest of other P4 schools who have a definite need at that position. Bringing in high caliber talent from other P4 programs can bolster depth and create competition in the room. This is where we have seen the use of “one-year rentals of players.” This is different than those who need a change of scenery as these players were performing well and so their interest levels may be more tied to identifying an opportunity that could boost their draft stock. We’ve seen the following players have success transferring to another P4 team:
- Cam Ward: Washington State -> Miami
- Nic Scourton: Purdue -> Texas A&M
- Keon Coleman -> Michigan State -> Florida State
- Jahmyr Gibbs -> Georgia Tech -> Alabama
- Michael Penix Jr.: Indiana -> Washington
- Chop Robinson: Maryland -> Penn State
- Christian Gonzalez: Colorado -> Oregon
WRs, Defensive Corners (DCs), and QBs have led the greatest number of transfers (as of 2024 season transfers), while positions in the trenches have seen the biggest increase (while still less than other positions) since 2021.
These are just some of the main reasons observed as to why players enter the portal each year, though there are additional personal reasons a player chooses to enter the portal that can include NIL and potential branding deals. When the portal opens, be on the lookout for more of these types of players entering the portal and finding new places to play football in the 2025 season.
