It was not long ago that the NFL trade deadline was a quiet and distant cousin to its peers in the Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association. From 2012-2017, the NFL saw an average of over four trades per season occur between the start of October and the trade deadline. In the six seasons that followed, that average jumped to over 13 trades per season.
The NFL has embraced more mid-season trading as teams further develop their own player and pick valuation charts and win now pressures are greater than ever.
As of early afternoon on October 30, there have been nine trades in the last 30 days and two during the writing of this article. With the 4pm EST trade deadline coming on next Tuesday, it is almost guaranteed that there will be more trades in the news. As we all dream up the perfect trade for our favorite team, we need to remember that there is a cost for each move.
Nov 4, 2024: Trade Candidates Update
With the trade deadline a day away, more names have started to surface as potential trade candidates since the original article was released.
Receivers: DK Metcalf & Adam Thielen
Sticking with the pass catchers, we’ve already seen four receivers change teams since the start of October and a couple of big names might be on the move before the deadline closes.
DK Metcalf
Metcalf came as a surprise to our Seattle based C-suite executives who almost all fainted when his name came up as a potential trade target. If the Seahawks decide to move on from their All-Pro receiver, the SumerSports Trade Explorer tool compares him to another former All-Pro, Brandon Marshall. Marshall was traded in 2012 from the Dolphins to the Bears for two 3rd Round picks.
Adam Thielen
With his former teammate, Diontae Johnson, getting traded last week, there’s a chance he might be on the move as well. He didn’t play last week due to a hamstring injury. Due to his age, his trade value isn’t going to be high for the former All-Pro. The closet comparison from the Trade Explorer was the 2011 midseason trade that sent aging former All-Pro, Derrick Mason, from the Texans to the Jets for a conditional 7th Round pick.
Patriots…so many Patriots
Since August, New England has sent both Matt Judson and Josh Uche to other teams. Four other Patriots have been rumored to be on the trading block.
Their trade comparisons are:
- KJ Osborn
- 2021: Jakeem Grant from Dolphins to Bears
- Dolphins received: 6th Round pick
- Tyquan Thorton
- 2023: Denzel Mims from Jets to Lions
- Conditional pick swap (7th Round Pick for 6th Round pick)
- Kendrick Bourne
- 2022: Robbie Chose from Panthers to Cardinals
- Panthers received: 6th Round & 7th Round pick
- Kyle Dugger
- 2020: Duron Harmon (and 7th Round pick) from Patriots to Lions
- Patriots received: 5th Round pick
Another New York Giant: Darius Slayton
Slayton, the Giants second leading receiver behind Malik Nabers, has a trade comparison to the 2014 Mike Williams trade that sent him from the Bucs to the Bills for a 6th Round pick.
Trade Rumors vs Reality: The Staying Put Squad
There have been a handful of players mentioned that are unlikely to be moved (for several reasons) before the trade deadline on Tuesday at 4pm ET. However, let’s look at their potential trade value.
Anthony Richardson & Bryce Young
The first and fourth picks of the 2023 NFL draft have been discussed as trade candidates since their benching this year, although Young is back in the starting lineup. We don’t believe either of these players are getting traded this season. However, if a trade was to happen, the closest comparison we have for these young quarterbacks is the 2021 trade that sent Sam Darnold from the Jets to the Panthers for a 2nd, 4th & 6th round pick.
Two Saints
With the recent firing of Head Coach, Dennis Allen, trade rumors have started surrounding players on the New Orleans Saints.
The first is 4x Pro Bowl cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. According to our Trade Explorer tool, Lattimore compares closely to the 2020 Darius Slay trade that sent the then, 4x Pro Bowler, from the Lions to the Eagles for a 3rd and 5th Round pick. However, his cap situation will likely hold up this trade until late next year. If Lattimore is traded by the deadline, his prorate bonus would create a 2025 cap hit more than the $31.4m it’s already projected as.
Will the #Saints trade Marshon Lattimore tmrw?
Contract info, probable compensation and a few teams that might make sense. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/9KkfsPc88V
— Lindsay Rhodes (@lindsay_rhodes) November 5, 2024
Chris Olave is the other in the rumor mill, but he is going to demand a pretty penny in the trade market. The SumerSports trade comparison is the 2022 AJ Brown trade that sent him from the Titans to the Eagles for a 1st and 3rd Round pick. But with his injury in this past weekend’s game against Carolina, he may not be available to trade before the deadline.
Let’s look at some of the biggest names that have been rumored to be on the move from the start of the cycle and what realistic trades would look like for those players based on the SumerSports Trade Explorer.
Wide Receivers: Tee Higgins & Cooper Kupp
This trade cycle has revolved heavily around the wide receiver position. Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Diontae Johnson have already been traded. The latter was traded during the broadcast of the SumerSports Show with Thomas Dimitroff and Lindsay Rhodes. The SumerSports Trade Explorer tool proved to be pretty accurate during the broadcast:
- Johnson’s potential trade was compared to a Mike Wallace trade in 2015, where he went with a 7th for a 5th Round pick
- The Baltimore Ravens ended up sending a 5th Round pick to get Johnson. They also received a 6th Round pick instead of a 7th.
With the 49ers, Chargers, Texans, Steelers, and Buccaneers still in need of a receiver, there’s a good chance that a few more moves will be made in the next six days.
Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is the first name that comes up in conversation when it comes to potential wide receiver trades as both himself and his teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, are looking for new contracts from the Bengals. The consensus seems to be that the Bengals are going to pay Chase and only Chase. With the Bengals sitting at 3-5 in a tough AFC North, it’s easy to see why Higgins would be available.
We have his compensation package similar to the 2018 Amari Cooper trade from the Raiders to the Cowboys. Dallas gave up a 1st Round pick in the middle of the season for a young receiver who they knew they were going to have to re-sign to a major deal in the not-too-distant future.
Cooper Kupp
While we believe there’s still a very good chance that the Rams hold onto their former NFL Offensive Player of the Year, let’s look at his projected compensation per the SumerSports Trade Explorer tool:
- Kupp’s potential deal would look the most similar to the offseason deal between the Chargers and Bears for Keenan Allen
- Chicago sent a 4th Round pick to Los Angeles for the six-time Pro Bowler
- Both Allen and Kupp have been dealing with lower body injuries for the past few seasons, but both can still be productive when healthy
Edge Rushers: Za’Darius Smith, Azeez Ojulari, and Trey Hendrickson
When the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson went down, the topic of trading for pass rushers started to heat up; former All-Pros Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett were even mentioned as trade possibilities for the Lions. After seeing Dan Campbell’s press conference, it seems that a trade for an edge rusher may be in the works, but we doubt it’s for Crosby or Garrett.
With Josh Uche going to Kansas City, the biggest names remaining are Za’Darius Smith, Azeez Ojulari, and Trey Hendrickson.
Za’Darius Smith
Smith is the one big name that seems most likely to get traded in the next few days. We expect his compensation package to look similar to the Everson Griffen trade: the Lions sent the Cowboys a 6th Round pick in order to get the four-time Pro Bowler.
Jadeveon Clowney
Another player that Stats & Scheme co-host Shawn Syed brought up on the show yesterday was former All-Pro Jadeveon Clowney, specifically as a potential player to land in Baltimore. Clowney’s package would be similar to the package that Za’Darius Smith would get.
Azeez Ojulari
Azeez Ojulari is quietly having a productive season on one of the best pass rushing units in the NFL. However, with the Giants sitting at 2-6, the return of Kayvon Thibodeaux around the corner and Ojulari in the last year of his deal, a trade could be made for the Giants pass rusher.
There’s not a perfect 1-for-1 for Azeez Ojulari, but the 2021 trade that sent Shaq Lawson from the Texans to the Jets is close. Lawson’s Sumer Player Value at the time of trade is almost identical and he was traded for a 6th Round pick.
Trey Hendrickson
When it comes to Bengals’ star Trey Hendrickson, Thomas Dimitroff said on the SumerSports Show that he doesn’t believe that the Bengals are going to make a move. “This guy is such a foundational person for them, gosh, I just don’t see [them trading Hendrickson].” While the staff agrees, what would a compensation package look like for the three-time Pro Bowler?
According to our Trade Explorer tool, the closest comparable would be the 2018 trade that sent former All-Pro Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants to the Bucs. Tampa Bay sent a 3rd Round pick, and they swapped 4th Round picks with New York.
Staying Put: Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett
Much like Hendrickson, Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett probably aren’t on the move over the next few days. Raiders owner Mark Davis even sent an email to ESPN letting them know that Maxx Crosby is not going to be traded.
However, with Las Vegas and Cleveland sitting at 2-6, is there a trade package that would be too good to turn down?
For Crosby, the closest comparable would be:
- 2019 trade that sent Frank Clark from Seattle to Kansas City:
- Kansas City received: Frank Clark
- Seattle received: 1st Round pick, a 2nd Round pick, and a 3rd Round pick swap
For Garrett, the closest comparable would be:
- The blockbuster trade of Khalil Mack that sent him from the then Oakland Raiders, to the Chicago Bears. This trade was bit more convoluted:
- Bears received: Khalil Mack, a 2nd Round pick and 7th Round pick
- Raiders received: two 1st Round picks, a 3rd Round pick and a 6th Round pick.
To break it down simply, for Crosby teams would have to part with at least a 1st and 2nd Round pick and with Garrett, it’s going to be two 1st Round picks.
“Best of the Rest” Trade Candidates
Outside of edge rushers and receivers, the four other notable names that have been seen in trade rumors are the Cardinals’ Budda Baker, the Browns’ Dalvin Tomlinson, the Patriots’ Davon Godchaux and the Rams’ Tre White.
- For the two defensive tackles, Tomlinson and Godchaux, both compare similarly to the 2021 Michael Brockers trade that sent him from the LA Rams to the Lions for a 7th Round pick.
- The closest comparison to Tre White was the 2018 trade that sent Aqib Talib from Denver to the LA Rams for a 5th Round pick. Talib was more productive at the time of the trade, but White (29 years old) has three years on Talib (32 years old at the time of the trade). So maybe the age factor can balance the lack in recent production?
Budda Baker
The last trade is a personal favorite of Sam Bruchhaus, the host of SumerDaily. He brought up the possibility of Baker being moved to a team like the Minnesota Vikings. Baker is in the last year of his contract and is still a highly productive safety in the league.
Budda Baker’s trade comparison falls somewhere between the following two trades:
- The midseason 2023 trade that sent Kevin Byard to the Eagles from the Titans:
- Eagles received: Kevin Byard
- Titans received: 5th Round Pick, a 6th Round Pick and their starting safety at the time, Terrell Edmunds
- The midseason 2018 trade that sent Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers to the Commanders:
- Commanders received: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
- Packers received: 4th Round pick
Clinton-Dix was younger than Budda Baker is at the time of the deal, but his value was significantly lower. For that reason, we feel that a deal that includes a 4th Round Pick is more accurate for a potential Budda Baker trade.
Trade Deadline: Stay Tuned for Updates
It’s looking like NFL fans are going to be in for an exciting next six days and SumerSports will be there along the way. The SumerPodcast Network will keep you updated:
- Every morning on SumerDaily with Sam Bruchhaus,
- Tuesday and Thursdays on Stats & Scheme with Shawn Syed and Tej Seth,
- and on Tuesday November 5th, at 4:00pm ET on X/Twitter, YouTube and Instagram the SumerSports Show will be airing live on trade deadline day.
