All statistics are per SumerSports unless otherwise noted.
As previously covered by SumerSports, the trickle-down effects from Justin Jefferson’s massive, $140 million contract extension are beginning to have an impact. In this case, it is putting the NFL’s runner up last year, the San Francisco 49ers, at risk of losing their top wide receiver. Per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Brandon Aiyuk asked for a trade after his camp and the 49ers have been unable to reach an extension.
Brandon Aiyuk’s Stats Last Year
Aiyuk solidified himself as a topflight wide receiver last year after improving in each of the three previous seasons. Last season, he:
- Racked up over 1,300 yards receiving, ranking 7th in the league.
- His catches led to just over 14 touchdowns worth of expected points added (3rd in the league) to his team’s performance.
- He was 3rd in adjusted yards per route run, just behind Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins, but just ahead of Justin Jefferson.
- Aiyuk ranked first in overall rating according to ESPN Analytics, which is designed to better identify a player’s talent rather than their situation and also finished in the top 10 of overall ratings in 2022.
His excellent performance earned him an AP Second Team All-Pro selection.
Of note, though, he did this with a more muted usage profile than other top wide receivers. Aiyuk garnered just over 22.6% of targets. This ranked 20th in the league and was well behind other highly paid players such as Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs, all of whom were near 30%. In addition, he had great opportunities, as his expected yards per route run was much higher than other top wide receivers, and both he and teammate Deebo Samuel ranked in the Top 3.
San Francisco 49ers Offseason Moves
By reading the tea leaves in the 49ers moves, one could glean that, despite some glittering metrics, the team may have been uncomfortable extending Aiyuk to the level of Jefferson’s contract.
It’s been reported throughout the offseason that the Niners were unwilling to extend Aiyuk on his terms. In fact, Garafolo also reported that minimal conversations have even occurred since May.
In April’s Draft, 49ers general manager John Lynch drafted Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick in the 1st round. Pearsall, a 23-year-old who spent 2019 on the same Arizona State team as Aiyuk before moving on to Florida in 2022, was drafted well before expectation. He sat in between 80 and 100 on the consensus big board prior to an excellent combine showing which earned him a 9.91 Relative Athletic Score out of 10. At draft time, his expected draft position was solidly in the second round. Pearsall was placed on the non-football injury list to begin training camp.
Couple that with their extension of Super Bowl standout Jauan Jennings, and a narrative arises in which the 49ers were gathering assets should a thorny situation arise with Aiyuk.
Outside of the wide receiver room, the 49ers also gave a new deal to their superstar running back Christian McCaffery which further solidified him as the top-paid tailback in the league. Looming over all these moves is the upcoming extension of quarterback Brock Purdy, whom 49ers owner Jed York said expects to “ask for something that no one has ever asked for before” in terms of compensation.
Expectations Moving Forward
Given his stellar performance last year, Aiyuk certainly will want to be paid more than the about $14 million he is slated to be paid in accordance with his 2024 5th-Year Option. Ironically though, the 49ers will likely demand that any team wanting to trade for him send top assets in return.
In terms of trade comparables, trading for Aiyuk will almost certainly cost a 1st round pick. The last AP All-Pro receiver to be traded in the offseason directly following his All-Pro season was Davante Adams in 2021, though at the time Adams was older and on his second consecutive first-team accolade. Adams was traded for a 1st and a 2nd round selection.
Perhaps the most similar trade to Aiyuk is the A.J. Brown trade in 2022. Brown was a promising player entering his fourth year at the time, and despite not having the all-pro award that Aiyuk has, still went for a 1st and 3rd round selection.
The team trading for Aiyuk will certainly have to sign him to a lucrative contract. Perhaps the best contract comparable for Aiyuk is the Detroit Lions’ receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is nearly the same age, had nearly the same impact, and earned similar accolades as Aiyuk, and he recently was extended for around $30 million a year. However, his deal had substantially less money guaranteed at signing, and had only $77 million “practically” guaranteed.
Given the reports that negotiations stalled in early May, it is likely that the signing of this contract was the cause of impasse, and measures were certainly complicated by the larger signing of Jefferson.
Overall, it may be best for both sides if the stalemate holds. While Aiyuk gets to put the 49ers feet to the fire, the 49ers also get to wait to see if any team gets desperate to potentially overpay via trade. Regardless of if a trade happens or not, it seems likely that Aiyuk will receive a major pay day (at least in the average per year sense) to rival other top wide receivers.
