Introduction
Patrick Mahomes has long been synonymous with pocket wizardry and clutch performance. On Black Friday, the Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback added another chapter to his legacy, becoming the franchise’s all-time scoring leader—and he did it with characteristic Mahomes flair.
🚨 FLOATER ALERT 🚨 pic.twitter.com/4qOHk2dJNF
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 29, 2024
Using our cutting-edge FootballAI model, we dissected this historic play to understand what makes it truly exceptional. FootballAI represents the latest advancement in sports analytics, processing spatio-temporal player tracking data to generate detailed frame-by-frame analysis. This sophisticated model doesn’t just track movement; it understands the complexity and nuance of every play as it unfolds.
Breaking Down the Play
The tracking data visualization captures a crucial moment—2.4 seconds after the snap—that showcases the complexity of the play. This frame reveals the precise positioning of all 22 players on the field, with receiver routes clearly mapped and the model’s real-time yardage prediction displayed.
What makes this particular play stand out? Under intense defensive pressure, Mahomes demonstrated why he’s in a class of his own. Our comprehensive analysis reveals this as his most impressive play of the 2024 regular season, with metrics that tell a compelling story:
At the elite end of the spectrum, Mahomes registered in the 99th percentile for Accuracy and 98th percentile for Big Throw capability. The play earned a remarkable 97th percentile AI Grade, while his Production +/- and Sack Avoidance both landed in the 96th percentile.
Early Recognition Capabilities
One of FootballAI’s most impressive features is its ability to predict play development with remarkable accuracy. Just two seconds after the snap—before Mahomes began his throwing motion—the model assigned a 60% probability that Justin Watson (#84) would be the target. By the time Mahomes released the ball, this probability had increased to 80%, demonstrating how the model processes pre-snap alignments, route developments, and quarterback progressions in real-time.
Completion Probability Analysis
FootballAI’s analysis reveals fascinating insights through its completion probability estimates. At the time of throw, the model calculated that if Watson was targeted, the play had just a 24% chance of completion, given the tight coverage and defensive pressure. What makes this particularly interesting is that DeAndre Hopkins appeared to be a more favorable option, with the model estimating a 54% completion probability if he were targeted. This stark difference in completion probabilities highlights the risk-reward nature of Mahomes’ decision-making.
Under Pressure
The extraordinary nature of this play becomes even clearer when considering the pressure Mahomes faced. K’Lavon Chaisson (#44) was draped over Mahomes at the time of throw, applying immediate pressure that would have forced most quarterbacks into a rushed throw or sack. For his efforts, Chaisson earned an 88th percentile Pass Rush Get Off and 98th percentile Pass Rush Finish grade—illustrating how FootballAI captures defensive excellence even when traditional statistics might miss it.
The Convergence of Athletics and Analytics
The brilliance of this play lies in its intersection of physical mastery and analytical insight. Just as Mahomes stood tall in a collapsing pocket to deliver for his team, FootballAI’s sophisticated analysis reveals the layers of complexity within this historic moment. From early receiver prediction to pressure analysis, the model illuminates the split-second decisions and brilliance that make Mahomes one of the game’s greatest performers.