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For the first time during the 2024 NFL Draft season, we at SumerSports are putting out a mock draft. This is going to be a full first-round mock, which is a bit different than our top-10 market implied mock drafts from last year. Additionally, this is a bit of a Frankenstein’s monster between what we think will happen, what could happen, and what we would like to happen.
A prefatory note: this mock has no trades. While there are some trades that make a lot of sense and it is highly likely that we will see a trade in the first round, we are sticking to the current draft order. Our main source of information here is the great data from Grinding The Mocks, and market data, which is brought to us by SportsData.IO.
1. Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams, QB, USC
While there was some talk during draft season about the Bears trading the #1 pick, the Justin Fields trade all but confirmed they will be taking a quarterback to open this year’s draft. Caleb Williams is the logical choice and has been penciled into this slot since before last season.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Despite Jayden Daniels being the odds-on favorite to go second for much of the last month, Adam Peters and the Commanders have done a great job of avoiding any leaks; Peters is familiar with this way from his time in San Francisco. We are going with what might be the higher end play in Drake Maye here and are excited to see just how wrong we could be.
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
While the Patriots might not have the offensive supporting cast of some of the other teams looking at quarterbacks in this draft, they still could be looking for their next franchise quarterback at #3 overall. Most believe that there is a tier drop-off from QB3 to QB4 so the Patriots end up with Daniels here, though this could be a spot for a trade.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Arizona Cardinals currently have the most draft capital of any team in this draft with six top 100 picks and very well could add to that with a trade back. But for the sake of this mock draft, they stick at #4 and take arguably the most valuable non-quarterback in this class. Not only is Marvin Harrison Jr. a high-end prospect at a premium position, but he also fits a need after Marquise Brown left in free agency.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OL, Notre Dame
There may not be a more depleted unit in football from the start of last season to the start of this season than the Chargers wide receiver room. Most of the veterans have found themselves in other locations, with a new wide receiver one needing to be brought into the fold. Rumors continue to swirl about Jim Harbaugh’s desire to establish it through the trenches, though, and the Chargers select the consensus top tackle in Joe Alt here.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
While Darius Slayton is perennially underrated, the Giants didn’t have a receiver outside of him that ranked in the top half of yards per route run last season. There is an immediate need for receiver and Nabers is a big play waiting to happen.
7. Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu, OL, Penn State
Ran Carthon and the Titans were busy this offseason signing WR Calvin Ridley and trading for CB L’Jarius Sneed. They also hired a new Head Coach in Brian Callahan who brought along his dad and legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan. The Titans invested in the outside before the draft so that they could give the Callahans a high-end offensive tackle to build out the trenches on their roster and pick Olu Fashanu here.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, ED, Alabama
Dallas Turner comes with blue-chip edge rush appeal and won’t cost teams a top five pick. Turner can impact the passer and dropped into coverage while at Alabama, a skill he will need in the Morris/Lake defense. With Atlanta answering their quarterback questions through free agency, expect the eighth pick to finally be the spot we see our first defensive player come off the board.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
After selecting Caleb Williams with the first pick, the Bears are still in need of help at multiple spots and enter the draft with only four total picks. With one of the top three receivers still on the board, Chicago goes with Rome Odunze here to help jump start their franchise quarterback’s rookie year. Though defensive end and trading back are enticing options, a talent like Odunze would surely make Shane Waldron smile.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The touted once in a generation prospect meets the realities of player value within the confines of a salary cap. Bowers sits as the first player on the plus side price to be a top-10 selection and without four quarterbacks going realistically is the next most likely pick at 10. The Jets may be peeking around the AFC East and realizing how winnable the division appears. How much a rookie tight end could contribute to that is to be seen.
11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Though the Vikings seemed poised to trade up, in this mock, we have the analytically run Vikings standing pat at 11, where they land J.J. McCarthy. Past drafts have shown it’s often the last quarterback of the first-round tier that drops more than their expected draft position (e.g., Will Levis in 2023). However, don’t be surprised if McCarthy jumps up into the Top 10.
12. Denver Broncos, Jared Verse, ED, Florida State
Verse is a bit of a late bloomer and doesn’t come with the same high-end prospect pedigree as Dallas Turner but developed into one of the best edge rushers in the NCAA in his final two seasons at Florida State after having only one scholarship offer in high school. The Broncos will continue to be mocked quarterbacks, but this looks like a multiyear rebuilding effort and could start with a pass rusher and kick the quarterback question to a future draft.
13. Las Vegas Raiders, Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
The Raiders bring in Fuaga to start off the first full season of the Antonio Pierce era. With the top four quarterbacks all selected before pick 13, the Raiders add some heft to the right side of their offensive line to protect whoever lines up under center.
14. New Orleans Saints, Troy Fautanu OL, Washington
Combining a health setback for former All-Pro OT Ryan Ramczyk, restructuring Derek Carr’s contract, and shaky seasons from Cesar Ruiz and Trevor Penning, the narrative is that the Saints need a versatile offensive lineman. Luckily for them, Fautanu is a powerful contributor who projects to lock down the second guard spot for the Saints but can also play tackle.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell received quite a bit of island treatment at Toledo, with some text comps coming close to Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. His draft position is shaded heavily toward the under at 15.5, and there is a lot to like about him being the first cornerback off the board to the Colts at pick 15. Indianapolis was plucky before losing Anthony Richardson and could look to round out their weakness from last season right before the midway point of the first round.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
With no knowledge of how Latu’s medicals turned out, his talent is undeniable. Latu’s hand speed and pass rush plan may be the best of this year’s class. Still, the medical concerns and fact that the edge rusher position seems to be getting pushed down the draft board has him landing in the second half of the first round. Circa sportsbook has his draft position set at 17.5 heavily shaded toward the under, with this being the likely landing spot for Latu.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars, Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Arnold is an intriguing mid first-round cornerback prospect, as he has had success both in the slot and bumped out wide. He also plays the run well and could round out a cornerback room in Jacksonville that is void of a top-end closer.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Even with Tee Higgins saying he expects to play for the Bengals this season, the Bengals select Brian Thomas Jr. Here. We have seen the Bengals continuously add to Joe Burrows supporting cast and they could be looking to get out ahead of a post Tee Higgins future. The LSU pipeline to Cincinnati remains strong, with this looking like one of the best player to team fits in this draft class.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
The Rams currently have an Aaron Donald sized hole on their roster and while there goal should not be to replace him with one pick, they can work towards doing it in the aggregate while taking who most consider to be the best defensive tackle in this class. Among the other top DTs in this class, Murphy was 1st in proximity pressure rate and depth of tackle (per StatsBomb). The idea of Sean McVay spending a first-round pick on an offensive player is alluring, though.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia
The Steelers spent their free agency acquiring some offensive players while leaving their offensive line relatively untouched. In what is a very talented tackle class, they grab perhaps the most intriguing one in Amarius Mims. While only playing 7 games in 2023, Mims was impressive in a limited sample and tested well.
21. Miami Dolphins: JC Latham, OL, Alabama
The Dolphins look to bolster their offensive line here, and justifiably so. Latham brings a power to the offensive line that can help Mike McDaniel as he once again searches for ways to finish the year strong. Latham’s experience and durability can serve Miami well.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Tyler Guyton, OL, Oklahoma
Howie Roseman had made it no secret that he has selected players early in the draft with the future in mind. As Lane Johnson, still a top right tackle in the league, notches another season, this makes a new admission to Stoutland University a reasonable possibility. With the way to board fell in front of them here, the Eagles go with Guyton. The Eagles recent desire to move up a few picks may make them a candidate to jump up a few slots depending on how the board plays out.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
The Vikings had one of the most aggressive, unpredictable defenses in the league last year. It is fitting that the big man from Illinois, who is known for causing disruption across multiple defensive line alignments, goes to the Brian Flores-helmed defense.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Dallas has multiple needs up front and fills one of them with Graham Barton from Duke. Barton is being projected at both center and guard and has the athleticism to be a positive for the Cowboys in year one.
25. Green Bay Packers: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, the Packers add DeJean to a secondary that needs a face lift. DeJean’s athleticism, aggressiveness against the run, and corner/safety versatility make him a needed addition for the Packers.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Buccaneers GM Jason Licht has invested more in defensive line than any other position and could continue that in this year’s draft. Chop Robinson had an 82.7 predictive athletic score and was 1st in both proximity pressure rate and time to pressure (per StatsBomb).
27. Arizona Cardinals: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Arizona Cardinals were encouraging at times but need quality players on the defensive end. With Mitchell and Arnold both selected already, the Cardinals select the blazing fast Nate Wiggins here. Though size concerns are legitimate, Wiggins’ coverage ability would be a positive in the Jonathon Gannon/Nick Rallis defense that dabbled in creative looks last season.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
The Bills roster has seen much turnover, including that of Stefon Diggs, with their top-tier quarterback under contract. Mitchell gives Josh Allen a rangy option who can get open down the field. Mitchell can stand to clean up some of his route running but would make the Bills’ receiving room better.
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Lions, coming off an NFC Championship appearance, boast a strong roster with uncertainty at cornerback. While bringing in Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson could be helpful, Detroit is still in need of someone who can guard the WR1’s they will see. Kool-Aid McKinstry can fit that mold as a former 5-star recruit who was developed at Nick Saban’s DB school and had the lowest targeted rate of any corner in this class (per StatsBomb).
30. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
The Baltimore Ravens have lost players, coaches, and front office members this offseason after a dominant 2023 regular season. They start to rebuild the trenches here with Morgan, who some are projecting as a guard. Morgan’s experience and ability in the run game would help pave the way for the tantalizing combo of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
There is an argument to be made that the 49ers would have won the Super Bowl if they were able to get better offensive line play from the right side. Jackson Powers-Johnson is one of the best run blockers in the draft and should be able to come in early in his rookie season and give San Francisco the boost they need there.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Chiefs ranked 23rd in average depth of target last season as they continue to evolve their offense to play against two high shells. Xavier Worthy is a great fit for that as he had the 2nd lowest ADoT of the top receivers in this class and ran more screens, flat routes, and slants than the average receiver. He should be able to give Andy Reid a dynamic yards after catch receiver.
