The Super Bowl is almost here, and our team was on the ground talking to players and coaches about the big game last week. In this article you will find five things to look for during Super Sunday from individual matchups to the most important units. We used the free data on SumerSports.com for statistical references below.
Eagles Defensive Line vs. Chiefs Offensive Line
With issues on Patrick Mahomes’ blind side all season, the Kansas City Chiefs have pulled the fire alarm and bumped their All-Pro left guard, Joe Thuney, out to left tackle. This has left Mike Caliendo at left guard for the biggest weeks of the season. Caliendo has not graded out particularly well on SumerSports’ AI tracking metrics, and he will be an important part of dealing with Philadelphia’s interior pass rush.
Jalen Carter boats a 90th percentile Pass Rush Finish grade and has been a force all season for the Eagles. He plays almost every snap of the game and aligns over the right guard on the majority of plays. Defensive line coach Clint Hurtt did tell our team in New Orleans that specific situations may call for moving Carter around, but all signs point to a strong battle with Carter and Chiefs right guard and pending free agent Trey Smith.
Milton Williams is another upcoming free agent that has earned himself a great deal of money this season. Williams is in the 98th percentile in terms of Pass Rush Get Off and could have a positive matchup against Caliendo. The Chiefs will have to decide if they want to slide center Creed Humphrey over to help out Caliendo against Williams or ensure that Jalen Carter has four hands on him at all times. If the Eagles can generate internal pressure and have Nolan Smith consistently win over Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, Patrick Mahomes will need to pull out his superhero cape to avoid sacks.
Eagles Defense vs. Chiefs Offense
How does the Chiefs offensive line deal with Jalen Carter?@SyedSchemes @bruchhaussports pic.twitter.com/WnK6chcjls
— SūmerSports (@SumerSports) February 4, 2025
Chris Jones vs. Mekhi Becton
Chris Jones is the closest player we have to a true defensive closer in the NFL. Jones picks his matchups along the offensive line and finds ways to stress vulnerable points of a blocking. The Eagles offensive line has had an incredible season as right guard Mekhi Becton surprised in his first year on the inside. Becton’s size and movement is impressive, but there have been times this season where he has either missed a call or missed an assignment in the wrong direction. Chris Jones may see this as an opportunity to attack both in the run game and the pass game. If the Eagles cannot stay in a comfortable game script, the blitzes may start to get extra funky.
Chiefs Defense vs. Eagles Offense
What is the most important matchup to look for?@SyedSchemes @bruchhaussports pic.twitter.com/EJ4dB2H1IL
— SūmerSports (@SumerSports) February 4, 2025
Jalen Hurts vs. Zone Blitzes
Much to the chagrin of NFL offenses, not all blitzes are created equally. Some teams want to send one extra blitzer and play zone coverage behind it. Other teams want to send two extra blitzers and play tight man coverage. Then there is Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo who wants to make it look like he is sending multiple blitzers from one side of the field only for the harsh reality of a surprise blitz on the other side of the field to settle in.
Spagnuolo is comfortable playing man to man coverage along with his creative blitzes that leave his cornerbacks in island situations. This season, though, the Kansas City Chiefs have faced injuries throughout the secondary. Trent McDuffie has taken over an outside corner spot after an impressive season in the slot, and Jaylen Watson looks to be at full strength heading into the Super Bowl. If Spags decides to play man coverage behind his pressure looks, A.J. Brown will bring his almost league leading four yards per route run against man coverage to the table.
Spagnuolo likely understands that fact and will instead turn to zone blitzes. Jalen Hurts drops from in the top five in EPA/play against man coverage all the way down outside of the top 20 against zone coverage. While Hurts has dealt with the blitz with checks at the lines and late in the play clock adjustments, the blitzes he is sure to face on Super Sunday may be more difficult to deal with. If he is able to get the ball out quick and take care of free rushers, the Eagles offense could get rolling.
Spags and the Chiefs ran one of their favorite creepers 4 times against the Eagles:
*T-E stunt + Nickel off the edge
*Drop the DE away
*OL wants to slide to Jones, rush can end up overloading the edge
*still can keep the 2 high structure + 7 in coverage pic.twitter.com/YKH4LsPzbF— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) November 22, 2023
Travis Kelce vs. Eagles Linebackers
Travis Kelce has the wonderful ability to lull you asleep during the season as everyone starts to project his retirement. Then he flips a switch on a few plays and ends up playing on Super Bowl Sunday, again. The Eagles have had a very strong linebacker group between Zach Baun and Nakobe Dean, but a playoff injury for Dean means Oren Burks will be a Super Bowl starter. Andy Reid will try to exploit that fact and find ways to match Kelce up on Burks. Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio will have a lot on his plate in this game, and tough matchups inside may be pressed early. Fangio has seen Travis Kelce multiple times and has had creative ways to deal with his presence. If not Burks, Zack Baun will have his All-Pro coverage skills put to the test on the biggest stage.
3 ways Vic Fangio dealt with Travis Kelce last year:
-Linebacker/safety functional bracket with the LB denying outside
-Cover 2 to Kelce with cover 4 away
-1 double with the down safety protecting outside
*Fangio has multiple ways to change leverage and funnel a threat to help pic.twitter.com/xrfNpkulWx— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) January 27, 2025
Saquon Barkley vs. Kansas City’s Run Defense
The Eagles are, first and foremost, a running team. Their identity shift has taken place as Saquon Barkley has coasted through defenses all season. The Eagles were near the top of the league in terms of EPA/rush and find a way to hit a home run when they need it the most. The Kansas Chiefs run defense has been middle of the pack in terms of EPA/rush allowed and teams have been able to find success against them on the ground. The Buffalo Bills put up a 77th percentile rushing success rate and a 79th percentile EPA/rush in the AFC Championship game that came down to the wire. The Eagles will look to exploit the Chiefs in the same way as Barkley closes in on the combined regular season plus post season rushing yards record.
Saquon Barkley finding space pic.twitter.com/8OubDAttmM
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) September 12, 2024
