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The Monday Morning Mashup, NFL Week 1: Dak, Detroit, Defense, and What Really Matters

Here is what you need to know from the first Sunday of the NFL season.
by Shawn Syed|September 9, 2024

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Hello and welcome to the very first edition of The Monday Morning Mashup. My goal for this column is to share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

In this week’s column, you can jump to:

First Things First: Dak Prescott is worth the money, but the defense stole the show.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Dallas Cowboys were front and center all offseason because of how they handled the contracts of stars CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. They once again captured the headlines before kickoff as Prescott inked a massive extension on Sunday morning. Dak Prescott deserves every penny of his contract extension because he plays the quarterback position very well even while being on hard mode. He has a full plate at the line of scrimmage between checking the play and adjusting protection, and that is before he makes accurate throws up and down the field.

All of that has given Prescott the following ranks: 5th in EPA/play among active quarterbacks since 2019, 1st overall in DVOA when pressured, and near the top in performance in expected pass situations during the 2023 season. The numbers give us context, and the film backs it up; this is the type of quarterback you pay and trust to elevate your team.

Prescott and the Cowboys have been and will continue to be judged based on their postseason performance. It has not inspired confidence to this point, but that can change. The last time we saw the Cowboys play football, they were being broken down by the Green Bay Packers as Matt LaFleur put the second level of the defense in a bind. In steps Mike Zimmer.

Mike Zimmer’s unceremonious departure from Minnesota overshadowed his defensive style. That style was on full display in a Week 1 takedown of the Cleveland Browns as the defense tallied 25 pressures, six sacks, and two interceptions:

To be fair, the Cowboys defense was good in the Dan Quinn era. Quinn also moved Parsons around the defensive front to create havoc for the offensive line. Quinn also used stunts and twists to help create turnovers. With Zimmer, I would expect a decrease in man coverage and an increase in some of the two-high zone coverages that have spread across the league.

Zimmer’s pressure packages can appear more complex for quarterbacks and the new coverage structures may help the Cowboys avoid the problems they faced in last year’s Wild Card game by introducing more flexibility to deal with the problems offenses create. It is not necessarily a safer defense, and we will learn more when the Cowboys face higher-level offenses, but there is reason to be optimistic for Zimmer’s return to Dallas.

The Double Take: The Lions need to get to the next level. How can they do it?

Sometimes you need to take a second look.

The Detroit Lions are no longer underdogs that are capturing the hearts and minds of football fans. They are now respected favorites in the NFC and are expected to win every single time they take the domed field they are assigned to that week. They did just that on Sunday night as they escaped Week 1 with an overtime victory over the ailing Los Angeles Rams.

The Lions win was full of some of the things we are used to seeing in Detroit: creative play calling that led to wide open players, tons of man coverage with mixed results, a run game that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, Aiden Hutchinson spin moves, and uneven play from Jared Goff. It also included something we aren’t used to:

Okay, but seriously, Jameson Williams is an absolute wild card in this offense. Established figures like Ben Johnson at the reigns, the offensive line, Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot, Sam LaPorta against linebackers, and Jared Goff largely produce about what you expect. Williams, on the other hand, is a bolt of blue lightning.

Williams can microwave this offense in an instant with speed after the catch and as a matchup problem on the outside. The Lions are in need of a third pass catching option as much of their offense funnels through St. Brown and the middle of the field. Williams’s emergence would mean the Lions can stress defenses even more in the deep and outside parts of the field. We can gain some knowledge from how Williams was used towards the end of last year, and Dan Campbell appears to be honest every time he tells us that he believes in Williams. He has the ability to be the last piece of the puzzle for an offense with Super hopes.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense faced a hobbled Rams unit that was missing multiple offensive linemen. They consistently generated pressure and surrendered shorter throws before coming away with an interception in the first half. In the second half without Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford was seeing the matrix and making throws that deserve its own mention later in this column.

This defense will face questions about its man coverage all year long because of how much Aaron Glenn wants to run it with new additions in the secondary. Offseason addition DJ Reader missed this game, but an improved run defense would also mean better situations for this unit. Through the air, the Lions did have a few reps where they had some extra help in the valuable middle of the field, which can pay dividends later in the season.

If the Lions combine the spark of Williams on offense with improved man coverage, this team can mask some faults of an already great team and make good on the promise of last year’s playoff run.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: If the Bills don’t reach their ceiling, it won’t be because of Josh Allen.

Unlike other superheroes at the box office, Josh Allen continues to perform at remarkable levels. Allen is an offense in and of himself on the ground, through the air, and in celebration mode. After a slow start, the Bills climbed out of a 17-3 hole to beat the entertaining Arizona Cardinals (whose offense is Fun), 34-28.

Allen is not at all my concern for this team. He continues to stress defenses with his arm strength and can extend the play in maddening ways. Though Allen hurt his left hand on a run later in the game, some of the play designs were encouraging for the Bills as the offense saw a great Keon Coleman catch and a nice Khalil Shakir touchdown.

What does warrant a second look is the defense in Buffalo. Sean McDermott has put together solid defensive units, and the Bills play a style of football that almost exclusively has only two linebackers on the field. The Cardinals personnel diversity allowed them to create some advantages with multiple tight ends that put the defense in predictable looks. It also helped that James Connor refused to be tackled on first contact and Kyler Murray activated Road Runner mode. The defense did settle down in the second half, including Von Miller creating pressure and the pass coverage tightening up.

The high-end outcomes for this team will be driven by the offense, but I worry about a defensive letdown for a team whose luck always seems to be running low. A key cog in Taron Johnson left the game with an injured forearm even as the secondary is already working in new pieces. This is not to mention star linebacker Matt Milano is also on the sidelines until at least December.

If the Bills defense is able to help this team live up to Josh Allen’s unlimited potential, it may take an extraordinary effort from the pass rushers and multiple fill-in pieces in the back seven. This unit will be tested on Thursday night against a Dolphins offense looking for redemption after the Bills bested them twice in the 2023 regular season. Time may help these Bills defenders mesh, but it is to be seen how much time the Bills have to spare.

It Might Matter: The Bengals struggled in Joe Burrow’s return.

The Bengals continued their recent trend of September struggles in a surprising 16-10 loss to the New England Patriots. This came after offseason drama filled the state of Ohio as neither Tee Higgins, who was out for this game with a hamstring injury, nor Ja’Marr Chase, who played in this game despite speculation he may not, were unable to secure long-term contracts.

For a Bengals team still learning to build around a quarterback on a massive contract, concerns around the offensive line group lead the way. Yet in this game, Joe Burrow was only pressured six times on 35 dropbacks. Burrow struggled to find open space down the field as the Patriots were content allowing short passes that led to a 5.6 yard average depth of target. Burrow did have a beautiful throw to Mike Gesicki in the end zone overturned, but concerns for this offense are still live.

The offense used a bit of pistol and tried out some different things in the shotgun run game, but the Bengals offense did not look like the well-oiled machine of Burrow’s career. There were not schemed open receivers, the offense could not create explosive pass plays, and the Bengals could not nickel and dime their way to the end zone. Even if Higgins comes back healthy, Chase is back to his usual self, and Burrow is dealing, the concerns also stem to the defensive side of the ball.

The Bengals defense finished last season 27th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate after roster attrition and poor play wore on the Cincinnati cats. Lou Anarumo, whose game plans have stifled the best in the AFC including the Chiefs and the Bills, has the task of righting the ship after a rough start where Rhamondre Stevenson broke the century mark on the ground and had success against some of the Bengals heavier looks. The Bengals head to Kansas City next week in hopes of avoiding a two-loss September for the third time in three years.

It Matters a Little: Miami’s run game was bottled up. The Texans run game looked good.

Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins have made a habit of having explosive starts to the season. The turbo fins are at the cutting edge of offensive creativity with how they use motion, how they get the ball out of Tua’s hands in a hurry, and how they attack the outside in the run game. In their opening win against the Jaguars, they were unable to have much success on the ground outside of Alec Ingold being automatic on 3rd and 1 fullback dives.

De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were used in the pass game, but the sweeps to the house were noticeably absent for Miami. I am not raising alarms as Mike McDaniel is of the best run game designers we have, but some new designs simply did not work at the offensive line level. We can monitor this as the Dolphins host the Bills on Thursday night and continue to create explosive plays through the air.

On the other branch of the Shanahan tree, the Houston Texans run game looked much improved. The 2023 Texans spent many first downs running aimlessly into the backs of offensive linemen on the way to advanced data that does not match the heights C.J. Stroud helped them reach. Against a strong Colts front, the Texans turned in the 4th best rushing performance of the day by EPA/rush and they did it by moving away from their approach from last year. Out is the fullback, in is a second tight end, better execution, and a touch of new seasoning.

Year two of the Bobby Slowik/C.J. Stroud partnership is off to a strong start and the offense should continue to evolve. The run game improving can add to this offense, but I am more excited that Slowik is trying to answer some of the biggest questions facing him early in the season. Still, Slowik’s early down run rates may end up too high for a group that includes Stroud and multiple dangerous pass catchers.

It Shouldn’t have Mattered, but it did: The Clock

Buckle up, this one is a roller coaster.

With 18 seconds left in the first half, the Houston Texans had no timeouts as they drove into Colts territory. C.J. Stroud threw a quick pass over the middle, hurried his team to the line, and spiked the ball with five seconds left on the clock. The completion was called under review, technically before the spike happened, and was upheld as a catch.

The referee then announced the clock would be set to 15 seconds and the Colts maybe or maybe not called a timeout. This was before the referee addressed the public, apologized, and said the clock would be set to five seconds, the same time that the clock was at when Stroud spiked the ball. Only that spike did not count because the initial catch was sent for review before the spike would have been registered and the maybe/maybe not timeout also somehow went away.

When the Texans came to the line in hopes of throwing a quick pass to get into better field goal range, the clock started on the referee’s signal and led to the end of the half.

There was miscommunication with the refs, the players, the coaches, and the broadcast. It was a bizarre situation that we may not see again this year, but one that you can now yell at your TV about.

And The Nominees Are…

Here are the ballots for some very real, very important awards. Cast your vote and let your voice be heard.

Best Performance by a Quarterback Seven Seasons or More into a Career That Has Spanned Multiple Teams
1. Sam Darnold

In his return to East Rutherford, Sam Darnold donned the purple and white horned helmet and proceeded to drop dimes on a struggling Giants secondary. Kevin O’Connell schemed up throws that isolated Justin Jefferson and created openings for the Vikings. A foundation of Jefferson, Jordan Addison (who left with an injury), a potentially emerging Jalen Nailor, a soon to be returning T.J. Hockenson, and two bookend tackles give Darnold a situation that he is not used to. Despite Dexter Lawrence creating pressure and a deflected interception, the Vikings offense could be a challenger in an NFC North where the Packers will be without Jordan Love for some time.

2. Derek Carr

Before Kyle Shanahan there was Gary Kubiak. Before Gary Kubiak there was Mike Shanahan. In an attempt to compete the father son cycle, Klint Kubiak picks up the sticks for a Saints offense that impressed on Sunday. Derek Carr found himself in an offense that has a distinctly new feel in New Orleans. The Sean Payton style of offense is no longer, and it has been replaced with the offense du jour that uses heavy personnel, multiple shifts and motions, and focuses on conflicting linebackers at the microscopic level.

Even with a struggling offensive line, the Saints can field a realoffense between Chris Olave’s route running and Rashid Shaheed running straight by people. The NFC South can be confounding, but if the Saints can find their rhythm, they can challenge for the division crown.

3. Baker Mayfield

The Baker Mayfield project has seen multiple iterations. From Cleveland to Los Angeles to emerging anew in Tampa Bay, Mayfield has reinvented himself. He is better at avoiding sacks, is making better decisions, and can help Mike Evans hit another 1,000-yard season. Liam Coen impressed in his debut as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator with some improvements in the run game, but Mayfield gets the high marks for Tampa Bay.

4. Matthew Stafford

After an up-and-down first half that included a red zone interception, Matthew Stafford put together a highlight reel fourth quarter. Stafford had to deal with multiple injuries on the offensive line that helped the Lions create pressure and the absence of Puka Nacua, who missed the second half with a knee injury. He diced up man coverage as the clock ticked down and singlehandedly kept the Rams in the game.

Best Throw Made After Slipping
1. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Early in the 1st quarter of the Texans-Colts game, C.J. Stroud took a less than fortunate dropback on 4th and inches. Stroud lost his footing on the logo, held it together, and ended up converting the throw from his knees.

2. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Not to be outdone by his fellow second-year quarterback, Anthony Richardson uncorked a truly ridiculous throw that traveled just over 65 yards after he slipped in the pocket:

Richardson had a true Rorschach test of a performance. He makes Shane Steichen’s life easier in the run game and can both erase angles and have the power to push forward into the end zone. He also missed some throws that you would expect him to make. In his 18th start since high school, Richardson showed a high ceiling that most quarterbacks can only dream of. Raising his floor will be the focus of a Colts offense that can be exciting all year long.

Best Brandon Aubrey Kick

What was your favorite Brandon Aubrey field goal? Was it the 57-yarder that Aubrey made look routine? The solid 46-yarder in the 4th quarter? The other 50-yarder? The other 40-yarder?

NOPE! It should have been this beautiful 66-yard kick that did not count because the Cowboys were flagged for delay of game. Sometimes, we just don’t get to have fun.

Brandon Aubrey has a legit rocket leg and is pushing himself to the top of the kicker discussion. After the delay there was a moment where he was going to attempt a 71-yard field goal. I say let him do it.

Best Scheme Thing of the Week
1. This Funky Looking Dropback

NFL teams use shotgun at high rates and the best offenses try to attack defenses in the middle of the field. This area, patrolled by linebackers, is ripe for targeting based on how much eye candy you can throw at the defense. From under center, we see play action passes that draw defenders in. From shotgun, defenses are less inclined to fall for an unconvincing fake.

Last season, offenses included a pulling guard in shotgun play action for three main reasons: make the pass protection more sound with an interior offensive linemen blocking a defensive end instead of an overmatched tight end on a defensive end, give a linebacker that is keying the guard more reason to bite, and tie the shotgun run game with the shotgun play action game to have more effective fakes.

In Week 1, there was an addition to the eye candy jar as quarterbacks dropped with their backs to the defense away from their dominant hand off play action with a pulling lineman. This action can help the quarterback time up steps with the receiver’s route, influence the defense into thinking a full roll out will happen, and help offenses be more effective as they search for ways to draw linebackers in from shotgun.

2. Quarterback Run Game Design

The quarterback’s involvement in the run game is generally a positive for the offense. The defense has to account for an extra player, linebackers must be even more disciplined, and the offense has an increased level of versatility to create problems at the line of scrimmage. The now common zone read runs often have the offensive line working more horizontal to the line of scrimmage and defenses have devised solutions for some of the simpler schemes.

What we saw in Week 1 was quarterbacks involved in gap scheme runs that have a more attacking offensive line that can include pullers to outflank the defense in a hurry. Quarterback health rules the land in the NFL but understanding that not every quarterback has the speed of Lamar Jackson and thus should not be used in that way may lead to an increase in these types of runs. It also connects nicely to the broader increase in attacking gap scheme runs as offenses look for answers against defenses that try to prevent the explosive pass play with less players around the line of scrimmage.

3. The Pistol

Everyone seems to love the pistol offense. Instead of lining up directly under center or further back in shotgun, the pistol allows a quarterback to get the best of both worlds. The quarterback is far enough off the line to have some of the vision advantages of the shotgun while still having a running back directly behind him, which opens up the run game possibilities. In shotgun, a running back to one side of the quarterback can hint at where the run is likely headed.

Offenses are now leaning more into pistol because they want to find the balance between the pass happy nature of modern football with a run game that can make defenses pay for less run defenders on the field. It can have some setbacks for the running back in pass protection and require a different step timing but be on the lookout for a continued rise in pistol formations.

Best Performance by a Supporting Cast in a Win Where the Offense Did Not Score a Single Touchdown
1. Chicago Bears

Putting the Chicago Bears on my Sunday quad box was strictly for Caleb Williams related reasons. Down 17-3 and nearing removal from my short-term memory, the Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown, forced three other punts, registered a sack fumble, and had a pick six on the way to a shutout second half. Caleb Williams’s first win will not be remembered for his performance, but the Bears defense that impressed down the stretch of last season is primed to help their rookie quarterback. As Williams settles in, this can become a team that is penciled into my weekly quad box decision.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Atlanta Falcons offseason hype train hit the steel wall in a concerning way for the NFC South favorite. Kirk Cousins attempted to find his footing off an Achilles injury, but the Falcons struggled through the air and on the ground. This was not helped by two Cousins interceptions, another fumble, and T.J. Watt out on a mission. Watt is a game wrecker who is aiming to challenge his division rival Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, and he started off strong with two tackles for loss, impact in the run game that pops off the screen, and a game-sealing sack.

Arthur Smith also engineered a mind bending 17/23 for just 156 yards stat line for Justin Fields in Smith’s return to his former employer’s headquarters. Smith may break the play action roll out record with Justin Fields and for good reason. Fields had the pocket moved to make quicker throws, limit the downside of extending plays, and get him going downhill in a hurry. A nice throw to George Pickens and the lingering injury for Russell Wilson makes it seem like we will see Fields all season as Mike Tomlin mounts another campaign to finish a season above .500.

That’s all I’ve got, thank you for spending some of your time with me! Be on the lookout for my Explosive Play Report where I will go through every 15+ yard play of the week and see what it tells us about the league as well as Kickoff Corner where I will see what we can learn from all of the kickoffs from Week 1. I hope I will see you next week for another edition of The Monday Morning Mashup.

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