On today’s Hot Sauce Hot Takes, we cover how well players fit. Given how selecting an improper sauce can ruin a dish, we evaluate the proper dish for Travis Hunter and whether Brock Purdy may be the wrong sauce for the 49ers cuisine. Let’s not waste any time. Let’s get spicy!
Skyline Authentic Spicy & Tasty: Travis Hunter is ready-made for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Travis Hunter is currently the runaway favorite to win the Heisman trophy and first on the consensus big board. Since he first stepped on the FBS scene for the Colorado Buffaloes, he has absolutely lived up to the hype. For the 2024 season, he is:
- 1st out of 446 qualifiers in SumerSports’ frame-based route running evaluation,
- Near the 90th percentile in our receiver all-in-one metric,
- And above the 80th percentile among cornerbacks in our coverage all-in-one metric.
He did all this while hardly ever coming off the field. The two-way menace certainly deserves the Heisman trophy and to be selected highly in the 2025 NFL Draft, but it begs the question: which teams are the best fit for him?
Let’s set forth some ground rules here.
- Though our SumerScouts highlighted that Hunter is equally as effective on offense and defense, they agree with the consensus take that his primary fit is as a cornerback at the next level. For that reason, the team must have a clear and present need at cornerback,
- Given Hunter will be primarily a cornerback in this scenario, the teams must have a defined WR1, but struggle at the down-depth wide receiver positions,
- Given Hunter is currently the #1 consensus player, the team must be within the top ten odds to get the top pick in the draft,
- And finally, it goes without saying, the team must not have a need for a quarterback.
I think the most hand-in-glove fit for Travis Hunter would be the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings’ clear and present need going into the offseason will be secondary help. They are currently relying on Byron Murphy Jr. (18th percentile in SumerSports’ coverage all-in-one metric) and Stephon Gilmore (a late preseason addition who is 34 years old) at the outside corner positions. They have several certified wide receivers though Jordan Addison could quickly get too rich for the Vikings given his breakout year, so Travis Hunter could be a spicy addition to both Kevin O’Connell’s and Brian Flores’s plans. However, the Vikings have simply been too good this year and don’t have enough trade assets to jump up to get Hunter.
On the other side of the win-loss spectrum, Travis Hunter would fit a massive need at corner for the Giants and be an interesting pairing with Malik Nabers on the other side of the ball, but the Giants are in dire straits with their quarterback situation. A similar story could be applied to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Jacksonville, the team currently at the top of the draft order, does not have a pressing need at cornerback, given they extended Tyson Campbell at the beginning of the year, and he has performed quite well, ranking 19th out of 134 corners in our coverage all-in-one metric, and they also do not have a clear WR1 as of now.
Carolina, who has shown immense fight in the last few weeks despite their outflow of veteran talent in the last two years, would be an interesting landing spot. While they don’t have an ultra-pressing need at cornerback, as Jaycee Horn currently ranks 18th in our coverage all-in-one metric, they are certainly a team who would benefit from adding a budding superstar like Hunter anywhere on the field. His spot contributions as a target alongside young wide receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker would also be welcomed by the recently ascendant Bryce Young.
The Saints, who traded their star cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the deadline, could also be a good fit, though the injury concerns surrounding Chris Olave and general cap issues may make trading back (something rarely done by Mickey Loomis is prior years when they were competing) more palatable.
Which brings me to the absolute best fit for Travis Hunter in the NFL right now Sitting at Number 10 currently in the draft order, the Cincinnati Bengals could be the perfect landing spot. Here’s why:
- The Bengals have perhaps the clearest and most present need for a cornerback of any team in the league as current outside corners Josh Newton and Cam-Taylor Britt both are sub-15th percentile in our all-in-one metric.
- The Bengals have the WR1 and QB1 positions on lock with two guys who have legitimate MVP and Offensive Player of the Year award cases this year despite being 4-8. However, with Tee Higgins seemingly leaving after being franchise tagged this year, they also have an absolutely glaring need at WR2. Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas, both late round picks, have been under the 35th percentile in our all-in-one receiving metric.
- Also, making matters more hand-in-glove, is that the Bengals are notoriously cash-careful. Bringing in a rookie who can confidently take snaps at not one, but two premium positions could free them up to invest around the margins with an eye on improving a massively underperforming team.
Palo Alto Firefighters Pepper Sauce: It’s time to start the conversation around Brock Purdy.
After this year, Brock Purdy will almost certainly force negotiations with the San Francisco 49ers for an extension. Purdy has provided an immense amount of surplus value for the 49ers, quarterbacking them to a Super Bowl appearance despite being the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
In a vacuum, this should be a straightforward negotiation. His agent, Kyle Strongin, will approach the team with a similar playbook that he did when negotiating Trevor Lawrence’s market resetting contract. Much like Lawrence, Purdy has received MVP votes and made a Pro Bowl before. Adding to that resume, he currently ranks:
- 4th in Success Percentage,
- 5th in SumerSports’ Passing All-in-One Metric,
- 6th in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt,
- 5th in EPA per dropback, 7th in QBR.
The gap in negotiation anchor points start arising once you look a little closer, however. The market does slightly differ for players who seem to be a product of their environment. Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff, for example, both took sub-top-of-the market deals. That $53 million dollar number could be a strong anchor point for the 49ers.
But that is assuming the 49ers want to extend Purdy. The 49ers, in the past, have seemed happy to grant their starting quarterbacks record-setting extensions. In the offseason of 2018, they granted Jimmy Garoppolo a record-setting deal despite only really playing five games for them. While that contract worked out in the win column (the 49ers made a Super Bowl appearance with Garoppolo at the helm and won almost 70% of his games), they clearly sought to move on from him drafting Trey Lance with a high first round pick and Purdy with a late round pick.
Currently, the 49ers sit with a team ravaged by injury at a record of 5-7. While they are still within striking distance of the NFC West lead, the road forward looks very grim depth wise. And that is not even to mention recent snide comments from team leader and top tight end George Kittle regarding his target share versus the Buffalo Bills.
While I agree the statistics put forth a strong resume, we must recall that Jimmy Garoppolo was also generally at the top of many of those rankings during his time as a Niner. With the recent success of retread quarterbacks such as Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, all who either currently make or are slated to hit the market at a value of around half the $60 million figure Purdy’s representation will likely open with.
The question simply must be raised of whether the 49ers should stick it out and not extend Purdy, waiting instead to franchise tag him much like Washington did with Kirk Cousins in 2016 and Dak Prescott in 2020. Both were similar situations, though Dak’s was significantly more comparable, as Dak also received league accolades before having mediocre win totals in his core contract years.
Those situations ended in Cousins leaving for the Vikings and the Cowboys signing record-breaking contracts with Dak, so it’s tough to draw a concrete conclusion from the comparable, but the question remains, how confident can you be that Purdy is doubly as productive as someone else in the Shanahan system?
