Pick 1 – Tennessee Titans: Cameron Ward, QB (Miami FL)
The draft is a game where each team is given rights to a defined number of picks in which they can pick from a defined list of players. Historically, if you have a high value selection, the best way to maximize your accumulation of value is to select a quarterback or to trade back. In addition, the rule of thumb in maximizing your draft is to not stray too far from the consensus big board.
In this year’s draft, there are two quarterbacks at the top of the consensus big board: Cameron Ward and Shedeur Sanders.
In terms of our artificial intelligence metrics, Cameron Ward has the better profile with regards to production and, in particular, sack avoidance. He also is currently atop the consensus big board, while Shedeur Sanders is fourth. Thus, the Titans go Cam Ward here…
Pick 2 – Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders, QB (Colorado)
…while the Browns select Sanders right behind him. Keep in mind, C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels also slotted in at the second pick in the draft.
Pick 3 – New York Giants: Travis Hunter, CB/WR (Colorado)
To be truly generational, you must do something that has never been done. Travis Hunter did that in college by being a certified plus player on both sides of the ball. Where Hunter is the most elite is in coverage, a definite assignment of need for the New York Giants. Better yet, he also should contribute as an excellent offensive player if they choose to play him as a complement to Malik Nabers. Given the Giants will likely not be in a range to select a quarterback at 3, Hunter is both the perfect talent and need fit for them.
Pick 4 – New England Patriots: Abdul Carter, EDGE (Penn State)
Due to the selection of Drake Maye last year, Mike Vrabel and the Patriots are in a position where they can pretty much draft the best player available, whoever that might be. The intriguing holes to fill are the defensive edge and tackle positions. While it feels like adding the consensus top-ranked tackle Will Campbell could improve protection of their young quarterback, Abdul Carter falling to 4 may be too enticing for a defense that dropped to 29th in expected points added allowed per play last year (despite, curiously, being 8th with much of the same personnel the year before).
Pick 5 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, IDL (Michigan)
It might not get easier than this for whoever ends up being the Jaguars general manager. The Jaguars were solidly in the bottom quarter of the league last year against the run and have a need at the interior defensive line positions. Mason Graham is not only the top-rated player at that position, but the top consensus player at this point in the draft.
Pick 6 – Las Vegas Raiders: Will Johnson, CB (Michigan)
The Raiders badly need a quarterback, but it would be a massive reach to draft one here. Similarly, Ashton Jeanty could really help this team, but the surplus value on drafting a running back at pick 6 is almost negative. I can’t keep my eyes off Will Johnson here, particularly given Pete Carroll’s success in the Legion of Boom days.
Pick 7 – New York Jets: Will Campbell, OT (LSU)
Both Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith are (1) unrestricted free agents and (2) aging. Will Campbell joins last year’s first round draft pick Olu Fashanu as the cornerstones of a young New York Jets offensive line.
Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers: Mykel Williams, EDGE (Georgia)
The Panthers were dead last in expected points added allowed per play defensively last year. They take the consensus top defender at this spot in the draft.
Pick 9 – New Orleans Saints: Tetairoa McMillan, WR (Arizona)
The Saints have most of their team slated to come back but have age, depth, and cap problems. The wheels truly fell off of the bus last year when the Saints lost both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as they were forced to start practice squad guys at the wide receiver position. Adding a premier-sized receiver for the future solves that problem.
Pick 10 – Chicago Bears: Shemar Stewart, EDGE (Texas A&M)
This is one of the more intriguing points in the draft. The Bears have key needs at the offensive line positions and defensive line positions. They have Kelvin Banks, one of the best swing offensive line prospects in many years, available here. In addition, they have true edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. available.
However, Dennis Allen loves big ends. Trey Hendrickson, Marcus Davenport, Payton Turner, and Isaiah Foskey all weighed around or above 265 pounds when they were drafted by the Allen-led Saints defense. While Jalon Walker and James Pearce are more highly rated in the consensus mind, they are both under 250 pounds. Meanwhile, Shemar Stewart tantalized NFL executives at the Senior Bowl with his movement ability at 280 pounds. He seems like a great fit for an Allen-helmed defense.
Pick 11 – San Francisco 49ers: Kelvin Banks, OL (Texas)
The 49ers struggled with depth on both offense and defense this season. Kelvin Banks seems like a great fit here, but the 49ers have only drafted 3 offensive linemen before the fourth round in Shanahan’s 8 years with the 49ers. Nonetheless, I think that trend may break here given Banks’ versatility.
Pick 12 – Dallas Cowboys: Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State)
It’s unclear why this feels like a foregone conclusion, but an offense with a long-time quarterback, elite wide receiver, and ascendant offensive line feels like a perfect landing spot for a hyped running back prospect.
Pick 13 – Miami Dolphins: Malaki Starks, S (Georgia)
Both Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer are hitting free agency. The Dolphins bring in a young safety to fill that need.
Pick 14 – Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State)
Anthony Richardson is entering his third season, meaning that the Colts need to find out as quickly as possible if he is their guy. Adding the versatile “joker” Warren adds a weapon to both the rushing and passing game to aid their evaluation.
Pick 15 – Atlanta Falcons: James Pearce Jr., EDGE (Tennessee)
Atlanta badly needs youthful edge rushing talent. Lucky for them, this draft is flush with this, and Jalon Walker and James Pearce are right around their pick according to consensus. Pearce lights up all our artificial intelligence metrics and finds a home in Atlanta.
Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals: Jalon Walker, EDGE (Georgia)
Arizona was 27th in defensive expected points added allowed per play last season. They traded for Baron Browning at the deadline to bolster their pass rush, and he is now an unrestricted free agent. The consensus highest rated player here is Jalon Walker, who fills that need.
Pick 17 – Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Green, EDGE (Marshall)
The Bengals are faced with a host of problems with many interesting solutions. Their offense has critical depth issues at pass catching positions even if Tee Higgins does not leave.
Even so, their defense was 29th in success rate allowed last year, despite spending a second and third round pick on defensive tackles last year. That’s not even considering the first round pick they spent at edge the year before. Even their productive players, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, will be in their 30s and free agents in 2026.
Much like they drafted behind Jessie Bates before, the Bengals draft Mike Green here behind their aging edge defenders.
Pick 18 – Seattle Seahawks: Armand Membou, OL (Missouri)
The Seahawks offense underachieved last year, leading to the dismissal of Ryan Grubb. Klint Kubiak brings a more run-heavy system, so it makes sense to add versatile offensive lineman like Membou to this schematic shift.
Pick 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jahdae Barron, CB (Texas)
Tampa Bay’s passing defense was the weakness of their team last year. Jahdae Barron is one of draft fm guest’s Trevor Sikemma’s favorite cornerback prospects and should shore up that backend.
Pick 20 – Denver Broncos: Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan)
Sean Payton told Kay Adams they need a “joker”. They get that player in Colston Loveland.
Pick 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Luther Burden, WR (Missouri)
The Steelers have a dearth of premier wide receiving talent, and Luther Burden would add another interesting option alongside the unpredictable George Pickens.
Pick 22 – Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant, DT (Michigan)
While the pass catching positions seem to stand out like a sore thumb when reviewing the Chargers’ depth chart, productive defensive tackles Poona Ford and Teair Tart are quietly hitting free agency. While Walter Nolen is also on the board here, all the Chargers defensive linemen last year were near or above the 300-pound mark. Nolen sits more around 290, so Grant’s towering 6’3”, 342-pound frame may be a better scheme fit. Plus, who doesn’t love a good reunion!
Pick 23 – Green Bay Packers: Josh Simmons, OT (Ohio State)
The Packers’ young team is almost totally coming back, so they are in a position to draft the best available player. Many Packers fans want them to attack the cornerback position, however I think it may be too enticing if Josh Simmons drops down the board to them, especially given current tackles Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker could hit free agency next year.
Pick 24 – Minnesota Vikings: Tyler Booker, IOL (Alabama)
In contrast to the Packers, the Vikings have stark needs at the interior offensive line and defensive back positions. The Vikings were able to get by with Byron Murphy and Stephon Gilmore last year at corner, however their offense was 26th in expected points added per rush last year. Grey Zabel and Tyler Booker are the hot targets to solve this problem, and Booker is the more highly rated prospect according to the consensus.
Pick 25 – Houston Texans: Josh Conerly Jr., OT (Oregon)
The Texans need offensive line depth alongside their premier player Laremy Tunsil more than anything else in this draft. Josh Conerly fits that need well.
Pick 26 – Los Angeles Rams: Emeka Egbuka, WR (Ohio State)
When the Rams announced that they would be parting ways with Cooper Kupp, he joined Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson as wideouts who would likely not be returning to the team. Egbuka comes in as a young replacement.
Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens: Walter Nolen, DL (Ole Miss)
The Baltimore Ravens, especially given their defensive ascendance at the end of the year, are also in a position where they can likely pick the best player available. That being said, the left side of their offensive line is hitting free agency, as well as most of their depth at wide receiver. However, at this point, Walter Nolen’s disruptive talent may be too much to pass up on for the aggressive Ravens defense.
Pick 28 – Detroit Lions: Nic Scourton, EDGE (Texas A&M)
The Lions sought all last year to bring in additional edge rushing talent to mirror Aidan Hutchinson, especially when he was lost to injury. Scourton brings a hefty punch that fits that desire.
Pick 29 – Washington Commanders: Shavon Revel, CB (ECU)
The Commanders struggled all year at cornerback last year, which led them to trade for Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore missed a lot of time and struggled in marquee matchups versus Mike Evans and A.J. Brown. Revel brings much needed youth to complement last year’s second round pick Mikey Sainristil, who may be better suited for the slot position.
Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills: Jack Sawyer, EDGE (Ohio State)
The Bills had an extreme glaring problem that inhibited them all year and ultimately uprooted them in the Conference Championship Game. They were 22nd in expected points added allowed per pass last season and 21st in sack rate. Adding an edge rusher behind the aging Von Miller and across from the improving Greg Rousseau would be helpful in solving these problems.
Pick 31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Aireontae Ersery, OT (Minnesota)
The Chiefs struggled so mightily at the tackle position this year that they flexed their all-pro guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle midyear. Ersery was a Senior Bowl standout who could refresh their protection for Patrick Mahomes.
Pick 32 – Philadelphia Eagles: Derrick Harmon, DT (Oregon)
The Eagles, yet again, are in a position where they can take the best player available. There are many players at a similar expected draft position that would fit well with them. Matthew Golden might be an upgrade over Jahan Dotson. Jihaad Campbell, who racked up gaudy AI scores in both coverage and run defense this year, may be a perfect fit to replace Zack Baun. Ben Morrison could fill in for an aging Darius Slay. But I think Howie Roseman continues to build in the trenches with Derrick Harmon.
