Allow me to begin by saying, this mock draft is not an attempt to predict exactly what will happen in the draft. While that was more of an objective with my Pre-Combine Mock Draft, the post-free agency edition is more of a view of the processes and pressures that could turn the 2025 NFL Draft on its head. As the narratives have accelerated post-combine, I’ve been fascinated with the interplay between what the data says, what the politics are, and how the news and notes affected each individual player.
In particular, I am fascinated with the quarterback situation. Especially post-free agency, it seems certain that there will be teams with big question marks on their depth chart at the most important position in the game. As time goes on, I believe the pressure will mount to solve those problems. Which leads me to the first selection of the draft…
Pick 1 – New York Giants (previously Tennessee Titans): Shedeur Sanders, QB (Colorado)
My core argument here is not necessarily that the Giants should trade up for Sanders in particular. It is more that they should use every asset possible to address their quarterback problem, much like the Falcons did last year by signing Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix.
The positional value at quarterback is substantially higher at the top of the draft than other positions. This is multiplied by the Giants’ massive need for a quarterback. As owner John Mara highlighted, quarterback is their “Number 1 issue” for this offseason.
All of this builds pressure on general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll to pick a quarterback at the top of the draft, especially given it seems they are basically in a “prove it” year, which functionally eliminates the risky proposition of trying to roll the dice on a later round quarterback. The problem is that the two other teams who majorly need quarterbacks, the Titans and the Browns, sit at the two picks ahead of them.
All of this leads to a simple (though long-term, inoptimal) conclusion. If the Giants’ decision-makers want to control their own destiny as they go into an immensely tense season, they must trade up in order to get one of the two top quarterbacks.
The problem is that it is virtually impossible to be confident in which of those two quarterbacks are better. Researchers have identified this as the Quarterback Prediction Problem. The theory indicates that the issue with missing on quarterbacks is not due to a lack of information or problems in data gathering, but rather to inherent variability in the game of football. The last two years have laid this bare, as consensus top picks Bryce Young and Caleb Williams have struggled, while second picks C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels have led their teams to playoff appearances.
But, alas, if you are in a position where you can only guarantee that you draft a quarterback if you select with the first pick, you must face the harrowing reality that it is virtually unknowable whether Cameron Ward or Shedeur Sanders, who have traded spots atop of the consensus big board since Sanders tumbled to four after his Shrine Bowl pull-out, is a better quarterback.
Despite that, a selection must be made. I had Cameron Ward first in my last mock draft due to his slight edge in production and sack avoidance. However, Shedeur Sanders holds a quite sizable advantage over him in our passing accuracy SumerScore. The “eyes meet the AI” with regards to Sanders’ accuracy, as draft fm guest Cory Kinnan felt that Sanders deserved to be the first pick due to his evaluation of Sanders’ accurate passing versus the rest of the class. Further, though Ward does beat out Sanders in sack avoidance (though both were solidly below average in their last year in college), a closer eye reveals Ward fumbled nearly 44% more per snap than Sanders, so those quarterback hits may have further downside with Ward than with Sanders.
All-in-all, it is a very muddy picture, but what is clear is that (1) the Giants need a quarterback, (2) it is immensely hard to evaluate which quarterback is better than the other at the top of the draft, and (3) typically prospects who rise up the big board during the event season have a slightly negative correlation with production at the next level, so I am a hesitant to say Cam Ward is “pulling away” as the top quarterback in this draft.
The NFL evaluators who are big on traits and tools will love Ward, but those who are big on accuracy and the ability to find completions will prefer Sanders. That split is why Sanders is still in play at the first pick.
Pick 2 – Cleveland Browns: Cameron Ward, QB (Miami FL)
The Browns are perhaps the most advanced analytical franchise in the league. With that in mind, they are almost certainly taking into account the positional value of the quarterback position, especially given they have held more than three quarterbacks on their roster before. Moreover, they likely will not have any impetus to trade up due to the research indicating that NFL teams struggle to identify effective quarterbacks not because of errors in their information-gathering but rather random variability. As a result, the Browns are probably more than happy to sit at the second pick and take the second quarterback off the board. Alternatively, they may find it more appetizing to trade back and try to garner draft capital to rebuild their team. Either way, the pressures of the draft seem to dictate that a quarterback (in this instance, Ward) could be taken second.
Pick 3 – Tennessee Titans (previously New York Giants): Abdul Carter, EDGE (Penn State)
The Titans are perhaps the team furthest from competing of the teams with the top three selections. They were 30th in expected points added per play offensively last year, and 20th in expected points added allowed per play defensively. Especially given that the recently installed front office in Nashville can approach the draft with a longer-term view than the Giants and Browns, trading back and getting more valuable draft capital seems to be enticing.
Specific to this selection, the Titans’ current starting edge rushers project to be Arden Key and free agency addition Dre’Mont Jones, both of whom were outside of the top 32 edge rushers in the league last season in pass rushing SumerScore. Adding the top available edge rusher according to the consensus makes sense for them as the first core piece in a team-wide overhaul.
Pick 4 – New England Patriots: Travis Hunter, CB/WR (Colorado)
Quietly, Travis Hunter now sits atop the aggregate big board from some of the biggest sports media outlets, and it isn’t quite close. His average big board rating among these outlets is 1.2, while Abdul Carter’s is 4.7. If I were the Patriots, Hunter falling to me would be an absolute dream. They can slot him alongside cornerbacks such as All-Pro member Christian Gonzalez and free agency addition Carlton Davis (both of whom were in the top 25 of Pass Coverage SumerScore), which gives him the flexibility to move over to the offensive side of the ball to be a top target for Drake Maye as well.
Pick 5 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, IDL (Michigan)
Sticking with my pre-combine prediction, especially given the offensive investment the Jaguars made in free agency, it is great value to get Mason Graham here. Graham was 97th percentile in Pass Rushing SumerScore and 99th percentile in Run Stuffing SumerScore amongst college players this season.
Pick 6 – Las Vegas Raiders: Tetairoa McMillan, WR (Arizona)
In my last mock, I stated that the Raiders badly need a quarterback, but it would be a massive reach to draft one at the sixth pick if quarterbacks go with the first two picks. They clearly addressed that problem by trading for Geno Smith. Now, they utilize their premium draft capital to add a pass catcher to Geno’s weaponry.
Pick 7 – New York Jets: Will Campbell, OT (LSU)
Both the Lions (from where new head coach Aaron Glenn came) and the Broncos (from where new general manager Darren Mougey came) were built through the trenches with excellent tackles like Penei Sewell, Garett Bolles, and Taylor Decker. Especially with mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor slated to start at quarterback, it makes sense to bring in Campbell, a lineman who was a top 20 run blocker according to SumerScore last year.
Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE (Georgia)
The Panthers seem to be enacting a two-year plan. Last year, they invested heavily in the offensive line and spent first, second, and fourth round picks on weapons to investigate whether Bryce Young could be “the guy”. Now that they have fairly palatable results to that endeavor, they seem to be addressing the defense by adding interior defensive line, safety, and linebacking help through free agency. That leaves one place left to address: edge rushing. Luckily for them, the first round is packed with edge rushing talent, and Jalon Walker (no longer Mykel Williams, who I had here last time) is the highest consensus-rated player at that position here.
Pick 9 – New Orleans Saints: Will Johnson, CB (Michigan)
The Saints’ defense was 24th in expected points added allowed per play last year. They also traded their oft-injured star cornerback Marshon Lattimore midseason. They bring in reinforcements to their secondary by drafting Johnson, who was 99th percentile in Pass Coverage SumerScore and 89th percentile in Run Defense SumerScore in the 2023 NCAA season before struggling with injury in 2024.
Pick 10 – Chicago Bears: Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State)
While not particularly stunning, the Bears front office went all in on the interior offensive line in free agency adding key contributors such as Kevin Zeitler, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson (via trade). This seems to be building in crescendo to a selection of the electric Ashton Jeanty, who fits beautifully into Ben Johnson’s offensive scheme.
Pick 11 – San Francisco 49ers: Kelvin Banks, OL (Texas)
The 49ers seem to be beginning a new era in the past weeks, as they traded away Deebo Samuel and let Aaron Banks, Talanoa Hufanga, and Dre Greenlaw leave in free agency. Letting Banks walk may indicate that they want to lean into the strength of this draft: swing offensive linemen. I still think Kelvin Banks makes the most sense, despite him slightly dropping on the consensus big board.
Pick 12 – Dallas Cowboys: Armand Membou, OL (Missouri)
The Cowboys were 30th in the league in expected points added per rush last year, though the offensive line improved as the year went along. After Week 13 last year, they cracked the top 10 in terms of rushing success rate. Given they invested in not one but two free agent running backs, it seems clear the Jones family wants to bring the power game back to Dallas. Adding a supremely athletic Membou, who has viability both at tackle and guard, will help in continuing to build an offensive line which saw legend Zach Martin retire.
Pick 13 – Miami Dolphins: Shemar Stewart, EDGE (Texas A&M)
The Dolphins let Calais Campbell, who was quite productive last year for the Dolphins, walk in free agency. There’s no better way to replace one “freak of nature” than with another. Shemar Stewart, as expected, put on a show at the combine and fits nicely into the 5-technique to 3-technique flex positions that Campbell filled.
Pick 14 – Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State)
The Colts are now set for a face-off between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones in the offseason at the quarterback position. Adding a versatile tight end with a premium first round pick will certainly help the decision-making process.
Pick 15 – Atlanta Falcons: Mykel Williams, EDGE (Georgia)
Mykel Williams has tumbled five spots down the consensus big board since the combine. This fall is the Falcons gain, as they keep Williams in Georgia and fill their longtime need for an edge rusher.
Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals: Jahdae Barron, CB (Texas)
It feels like the Cardinals tried to address their edge need in free agency by keeping Baron Browning and adding Josh Sweat. They also have the young BJ Ojulari returning from injury and Zaven Collins, their sack leader, to provide pass rushing. On a defense that has multiple versatile defenders, Jahdae Barron can step in and contribute on a defensive backfield that allowed the 25th most expected points added per play through the air in 2024.
Pick 17 – Cincinnati Bengals: James Pearce Jr., EDGE (Tennessee)
The Bengals’ edge need was expedited when Sam Hubbard retired, and extension negotiations broke down with Trey Hendrickson. As Cincinnati evaluates trade proposals for Hendrickson, I’d expect them to jump at the opportunity to select Pearce, who has fallen in recent weeks despite having an excellent combine showing. While Mike Green is higher than Pearce on the consensus board, the Bengals have pretty exclusively selected big school talent with premium picks in recent years.
Pick 18 – Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Booker, OL (Alabama)
If the multitude of high-profile moves is any indication of Mike Macdonald and Klint Kubiak’s plan for this team, the Seahawks will be substantially closer to the 25th ranked pass rate over expected team that Kubiak coordinated than the 5th ranked 2024 Seahawks. Running the ball is on the menu, and a tough interior offensive lineman like Booker is an ingredient in that recipe.
Pick 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Green, EDGE (Marshall)
The Buccaneers added Haason Reddick on a one-year deal to bolster their pass rush. It makes sense to try to add a longer-term solution with the ultra-productive Green right behind him.
Pick 20 – Denver Broncos: Matthew Golden, WR (Texas)
Sean Payton got his “Joker” in free agency when Evan Engram became available, so while Colston Loveland may be available here, it doesn’t make sense for the Broncos to double down early in such a deep tight end draft. However, that doesn’t mean they can’t add reinforcements to the pass catching room, especially given that Courtland Sutton is quietly on the last year of his contract. By adding Golden, they continue to build a suitable environment for the two years left on Bo Nix’s rookie contract.
Pick 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenneth Grant, DT (Michigan)
With DK Metcalf entering the fray at wide receiver, I thought deeply about whether the Steelers might reach for a quarterback here. The quarterbacks are over 10 picks away on the consensus big board, however. Thus, the Steel Curtain is reinforced by a massive presence on the inside of their defensive line, especially given Cam Heyward’s age.
Pick 22 – Los Angeles Chargers: Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan)
The Broncos finding their “Joker” in free agency likely allows their division rival, the Chargers, to find theirs in the draft. This is now the second mock draft where I have Jim Harbaugh reuniting with a former Michigan player that he coached.
Pick 23 – Green Bay Packers: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE (Boston College)
In my last mock draft, I highlighted that the Packers might feel that they have a bigger need at offensive line than the public may think. Sure enough, they signed free agent Aaron Banks to a big-time contract to fill that latent need. This opens them up to address the pass rushing position in the draft. The toolsy Ezeiruaku has been on a constant ascent up boards and fits in nicely with the Packers here.
Pick 24 – Minnesota Vikings: Malaki Starks, S (Georgia)
The Vikings were immensely active in free agency, adding interior offensive and defensive lineman while also bolstering the cornerback position. Continuing to bolster the secondary by adding a post-combine tumbler in Starks seems prudent.
Pick 25 – Houston Texans: Josh Simmons, OT (Ohio State)
The Texans ripped their offensive line, which really struggled to protect C.J. Stroud last year, to the studs by trading perennial star Laremy Tunsil. They have to draft a tackle, right?
Pick 26 – Los Angeles Rams: Jihaad Campbell, LB (Alabama)
The Rams cut Cooper Kupp and added Davante Adams, while re-signing Tutu Atwell. As a result, the focus will likely turn back to the run defense. Jihaad Campbell slots in nicely to the linebacking spot left open by the outgoing Christian Rozeboom.
Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens: Walter Nolen, DL (Ole Miss)
The Baltimore Ravens stood pat, signing Ronnie Stanley back to Baltimore on a multiyear deal. It feels like the aggressive Nolen remains a good fit with the Ravens.
Pick 28 – Detroit Lions: Derrick Harmon, DL (Oregon)
The Lions let Za’Darius Smith walk, indicating they want to invest in the defensive line. The massive Harmon has the versatility to play from 1-technique to 5-technique. He feels like the best defensive player available at this point, and it doesn’t hurt that he is returning to his hometown of Detroit.
Pick 29 – Washington Commanders: Nick Emmanwori, S (South Carolina)
The Commanders went wild in the past few weeks, burning draft capital to add former Pro Bowlers Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel. As a result, it went under the radar that the uber-athletic safety Jeremy Chinn left in free agency. Luckily for them, another uber-athletic safety with a similar build awaits: Nick Emmanwori.
Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills: Benjamin Morrison, CB (Notre Dame)
After trading Kaiir Elam, it appears that the Bills will try to address the cornerback position through the draft. Adding Morrison, the experienced backbone of an excellent Irish defensive backfield, brings new blood into the Bills struggling secondary.
That being said, this feels like a position where the Bills can do what they did last year: trade back into the second and still get their guy. However, most partners would be wanting to trade in for lineman, and those are aplenty in this range and beyond, so we’ll see if a partnership emerges.
Pick 31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Grey Zabel, OL (North Dakota State)
The Chiefs are currently slated to start two backups on the left side of the offensive line next year. Adding Zabel, an immensely consistent lineman who can likely seek to address either of those positions, seems like perfect luck for the Chiefs.
Pick 32 – Philadelphia Eagles: Shavon Revel Jr., CB (East Carolina)
Howie Roseman worked his wizardry by selecting a long, athletic cornerback from a small school last year. With Darius Slay no longer on the Birds, he seems ripe to do so again.
