Throughout the draft season, I’ve brought you mock drafts and podcasts that evaluate the underground processes of the draft with the goal of exposing what makes decision makers stay up at night. As a result, it is fitting that on the night that every NFL staff member stays up all night, the eve of the NFL Draft, I produce my final mock draft.
While, yes, the goal of this draft is to get as close as possible to the end outcome, I as a data scientist and analyst simply cannot stomach certain outcomes. As a result, rather than outlining how a team might be bettered by a certain selection, I will try to produce some data or strategy element of why I think any given selection will occur.
Another note, while I’ve tried to keep my pre-combine and post-free agency mock drafts fairly clear of trades, in recent years there have been around five to six trades on the first day of the draft. As a result, I will slot in a few trades that I think will shake up the draft order.
I am so excited for this draft! So, let’s get it kicked off with something that is… not so shocking…
Pick 1 – Tennessee Titans: Cameron Ward, QB (Miami FL)
Only in 2025 is news about the most valuable asset in all of sports broken via Fortnite stream. Ward is –50000 favorite to be the Number 1 Overall Pick via FanDuel.
“AJ Brown’s a dawg, but he’s not Calvin Ridley”
I love him bro pic.twitter.com/Lg4r2DVIXK
— the metten burger 🫢🫳 (@themettenburger) April 16, 2025
Pick 2 – Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, CB/WR (Colorado)
Evaluating this pick for what is most likely to happen, I must go with Travis Hunter, the current –1350 favorite to be the Number 2 Overall Pick via FanDuel, to be selected by the Browns. Hunter is the only certified “can’t miss” player in this draft, as he ranked in the Top 40 of all NCAA players in both coverage and receiving SumerScores. I doubt there has ever been a player to do that in the modern history of college football at volume, and there may never be again.
That being said, if I am the analytically savvy Cleveland Browns, I am borderline prank-calling the New York Giants to see if they bite on trading up a pick to secure a quarterback before every other team.
Infamously, I said that the two top quarterbacks must go with the first and second selections in this draft. Frankly, I still believe that is what should occur. After all, Shedeur Sanders still does have the third best odds to be selected at this pick via FanDuel.
However, it strongly seems that sharp teams will be making bets more on their availability models rather than their evaluation models when it comes to the quarterback position, which I will deep dive into later.
Pick 3 – New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE (Penn State)
Abdul Carter is currently FanDuel’s betting favorite to go with the Number 3 Overall Pick. He also has an 82% chance on Polymarket of being the Giants’ first selection with a volume of nearly $3 million. All the numbers are pointing in the direction of Carter attempting to be the next great Giant edge rusher.
However, something just doesn’t seem right to me. In essence, you are betting that Carter will be at least as good as Kayvon Thibodaux whilst on his rookie contract. While Thibodeaux has not been the superstar that they drafted him to be, he has been a fairly sound second edge rusher. Our comparable engine compares his production to Dayo Odeyingbo, who just earned himself a nice chunk of change on his second contract. To expect this from Carter would be quite the projection, given what we know about the crap shoot that we call the draft.
As a result, I am keeping an extremely close eye on the Polymarket offering for the number of quarterbacks that will be taken in the first round. If this starts to swing wildly, it will indicate what I thought all along, that the Giants are in the market for a quarterback. Now, which quarterback that is, I don’t know (despite having strong thoughts on who the data says it should be).
Pick 4 – New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OL (LSU)
In my personal opinion, there is a pretty strong, data-based case that, despite the anomalously short arm length, Will Campbell is the final “blue-chip” player in this draft, as he is one of the top “AI meets the Eye” prospects.
- He was in the top 60 of all NCAA tackles in pass blocking every season and run blocking the last two seasons.
- He is 5th on Arif Hasan’s Consensus Big Board and has remained relatively stable as a top player in this draft on NFL Mock Draft Database’s Consensus Board.
- Duke Manyweather, Campbell’s trainer and founder of OL Masterminds, confirmed on the SumerSports Show that Campbell is a tackle, and OL Masterminds scouting coordinator Brandon Thorne contributed to the Bleacher Report Big Board which had Campbell as the top offensive lineman.
This is simply too much for me to put any other offensive lineman over Campbell in this draft. Combine that with him being a solid favorite to be selected with this pick, and you get what feels like a lock.
Pick 5 – Chicago Bears (previously Jacksonville Jaguars): Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State)
Let the wild west begin.
Smoke has been arising all week regarding the Jaguars’ interest in Ashton Jeanty. He is now the favorite to be selected with the fifth pick, as a result.
Do I think any running back should go with the fifth selection? No.
Do I think Jeanty will be selected fifth? Yes.
Do I think it will be the Jaguars, who notably have a first year, 34-year-old general manager who, despite being party to the selection of 7 tailbacks in his time with the Los Angeles Rams, never drafted one prior to Pick 52? No.
I think this is a classic smokescreen. And I think the Chicago Bears, with their two second round selections within 3 picks of one another and their shiny new run-oriented offensive line-head coach combo, will be the ones to take the bait.
Pick 6 – Las Vegas Raiders: Armand Membou, OL (Missouri)
The tackle run begins here. With Geno Smith in the saddle at quarterback, markets are beginning to trend in the direction of Membou and Kelvin Banks as a pick for the Raiders at the time of writing. Both provide a unique profile, and I am going with Membou here due to his substantially higher expected draft position on Grinding the Mocks (though I do worry about his wild rise into the Top 10 after the season ended).
Pick 7 – New York Jets: Kelvin Banks, OL (Texas)
There is a real argument that Banks could have the second-best offensive lineman profile in this draft. With high marks from the SumerScouts, the Bulldozer and Brick Wall badges indicating a Top 25 ranking in our run and pass blocking SumerScores, and a widely reported excellent character grade, Banks will likely close out the “tackle run” quickly.
Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, LB (Georgia)
While I wouldn’t call this the “trade back zone” per se, this selection is where my stomach starts churning with anxiety about what could happen.
While I deeply considered the implications of adding Tet McMillan to the deck of cards that Bryce Young can play with, I think the plan that the Panthers has laid out is clear: high-level defensive players.
Jalon Walker is the eighth-ranked player on The Athletic’s consensus big board and has an expected draft position rank of eighth. The stars are aligning at eight for Walker, as a result.
Pick 9 – New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams, EDGE (Georgia)
Mykel Williams is the favorite for the 9th pick on FanDuel and BetMGM at the time of writing, as well as at minus odds to be a Top 10 selection on Ceasars.
Tyrann Mathieu is over 32 years old. Cameron Jordan and DeMario Davis are over 35. Some new blood on that defense (especially given Williams’ excellent tackle for loss rate), is a pretty safe pick.
Local sources are calling for the Saints to get a little frisky here and go Jaxson Dart, but that move feels a little Daniel Jones-y to me.
Pick 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, IDL (Michigan)
If the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the greatest trick James Gladstone could pull was convincing the NFL he didn’t think highly of Mason Graham.
Given our speculative trade of Pick 5 to the Bears, the Jaguars can still get the consensus fourth best player according to Arif Hasan and Austin Mock.
Regardless, Graham has pretty solid odds to go in the Top 10, per FanDuel.
Pick 11 – San Francisco 49ers: Walter Nolen, IDL (Ole Miss)
At Pick 11, I think we officially enter the “trade back zone”.
Why? Because here we reach the glut of excellent pass rushing talent. If you are smart, you know it is immensely difficult to predict which rusher is better than any other one. As a result, it probably makes sense to trade slightly back.
However, I’d be pleasantly surprised if the 49ers, who notably took Ricky Pearsall in the first round well before consensus, take that approach.
Given that both FanDuel and BetMGM suspect that the 49ers will be drafting a defensive lineman first, I believe they will take the hotly rising Nolen, who sits at DT2 by Grinding the Mocks measurement.
Pick 12 – Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR (Arizona)
The Dallas Cowboys have minus odds to select a wide receiver with their first pick, whil McMillan is their most likely selection (though at plus odds) and is just around plus odds to go outside of the Top 10 per FanDuel. Couple that with an expected draft position of 12.6, and Tet is now to Tee as CeeDee is to Ja’Marr.
Pick 13 – Miami Dolphins: Will Johnson, CB (Michigan)
This is one of the picks in which I have the least idea of what is going to happen.
The markets seem to indicate this selection will be an offensive lineman, but if a run on tackles starts, it doesn’t seem like there is value in that selection. The widest odds between the second (cornerback) and third (defensive line) positions were +200 and +450, respectively via BetMGM.
As a result, I would label this selection the “trade back zone” as well, however Chris Grier does not have a history of doing so.
Based on some limited reports, I think corner makes sense here. And the highest ranked corner via Grinding the Mocks is Will Johnson.
Pick 14 – Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State)
Warren has a good probability to be a first round pick based on FanDuel odds, but not a great probability. I suspect that if no shenanigans occur, he will probably be selected before this pick. However, if anything switches up, I think Warren might still be on the board for the Colts to select, just as I predicted in my last two mock drafts.
Pick 15 – Atlanta Falcons: Mike Green, EDGE (Marshall)
In each of my mock drafts, I’ve slated the Falcons to select the top available edge rusher. That will not change with this one, though I do wonder if they might target a talent they like from a bigger school than the CUSA product, Green.
Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals: Jahdae Barron, CB (Texas)
While it may look slightly more likely that the Cardinals will go with an edge rusher or an offensive lineman, I think the versatile Barron, who sits at expected draft position rank 15 on Grinding the Mocks, makes more sense.
Pick 17 – Cincinnati Bengals: Shemar Stewart, EDGE (Texas A&M)
Similar to the Falcons, I’ve had the Bengals take the best edge rusher available in each of my mock drafts. It just makes too much sense, and the market bears this out. Shemar Stewart is a primo prospect out of a big school with a similar frame as the outgoing Sam Hubbard and the potentially outgoing Trey Hendrickson. He sits at 18 in expected draft position ranking.
Pick 18 – Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Booker, OL (Alabama)
I have put an offensive lineman on the sure-to-be-running Seahawks in each mock draft that I did. The two top expected draft position players at that position have virtually the same value. I’m sticking with my gut and having the Seahawks add the mauler Booker here.
Pick 19 – Los Angeles Rams (previously Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan)
It is my opinion that this selection is the most important pick of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Buccaneers have needs, but not so burning needs that they cannot consider other options.
Meanwhile, if you view Colston Loveland highly, you probably need to jump ahead of the Broncos or the Chargers to get him. Meanwhile, if you want a quarterback, it is time to jump up and get him before the Steelers jump up or a team who has already selected can get into pick swap land with the better teams in the league.
Friend of the SumerSports Show and Rams expert, Jourdan Rodrigue retweeted a report that the Rams could trade up for a tight end. It is in their second tier of probabilities based on the odds. Given they have two third round picks, a trade could be in the works here to snag Loveland.
Pick 20 – Denver Broncos: TreyVeyon Henderson, RB (Ohio State)
Broncos’ reporter Benjamin Allbright has dropped a puzzle to indicate who the Broncos might draft. Regardless of if you believe the comments saying it is Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, or Trey Henderson, the odds seem to indicate the Broncos will draft a running back first.
With the Broncos going off the beaten path last year to select Bo Nix highly, I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked their favorite out of a highly clustered position yet again. I think that is going to end up being Henderson.
Pick 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB (Colorado)
Lindsay Rhodes was (probably) right.
Do I believe Shedeur Sanders should fall this far? No. He is amongst one of the most accurate quarterbacks on record and has functionally been a professional football player since high school.
But will he fall? It certainly seems like it.
In my exercise post-free agency where I simulated how and why a team may trade up for him, I didn’t go into one key item that I want to detail here… team availability models.
I think the teams that need a quarterback, the Browns, Giants, Steelers, Saints, and maybe even Raiders, will be betting less on their evaluation of Shedeur Sanders and more on the chance that they can get a more highly rated player at another position while still acquiring a solid quarterback later.
This phenomenon is directly related to the fact that there are around 9 teams (Panthers, Texans, Colts, Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Broncos, Vikings, Falcons) who are comfortable starting quarterbacks on their rookie contracts.
As a result, I feel like I have a civic duty to mock Shedeur in the 20s, though I do think there is some probability that shenanigans unfold at either Pick 2 or 3.
In the meantime, I’d love to see the personalities of Shedeur Sanders and Mike Tomlin blend, and I’d enjoy examining whether his full field accuracy translates to noted down-the-field players like D.K. Metcalf and George Pickens.
Pick 22 – Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant, DT (Michigan)
As I did in my first mock draft, I mock Grant here. The Chargers are favored to go defensive line here. Grant and Derrick Harmon are tied for the best expected draft position available here. The Harbaugh bond seems too strong to be broken here.
Pick 23 – Green Bay Packers: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE (Boston College)
The Packers round out the teams in this third of the draft that seem like they need an edge and will stick with their selection as a result. Ezeiruaku has a similar expected draft position as James Pearce, so I stick with Ezeiruaku for this prediction.
Pick 24 – New Orleans Saints (previously Minnesota Vikings): Jaxson Dart, QB (Ole Miss)
I discussed the logic of why the Vikings might want to trade back on my friend Matthew Coller’s Purple Insider program. The duplicity of picks that the Saints have in rounds 3, 4, and 7 make all kinds of interesting scenarios for the pick-starved Vikes.
Meanwhile, Grinding the Mocks now has Jackson Dart’s expected draft position as around 26, so if you want him, you probably need to trade up a pick or two in advance.
The Saints do that here, and get the high scramble rate Dart for Kellen Moore.
Pick 25 – Houston Texans: Josh Simmons, OL (Ohio State)
The heavy favorite to come off the board here for the Texans is an offensive lineman, as I have predicted throughout the draft season. Simmons feels like the selection here still.
Pick 26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previously Los Angeles Rams): Jihaad Campbell, LB (Alabama)
Linebacker is the second favorite position group based on the odds. Campbell, whose expected draft position is 20 but may get lost in the edge and quarterback shuffle, also brings some pass rushing potential to add to an aggressive Todd Bowles defense.
Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Harmon, DL (Oregon)
Defensive line is heavily favored according to the sportsbooks, as expected. However, since Walter Nolen has risen in the past week, Harmon is the best available here.
Pick 28 – Detroit Lions: Nic Scourton, EDGE (Texas A&M)
There is a bit of a gap in expected draft positions at this point in the draft, yet it seems like everyone wants a defensive lineman. I maintain that Scourton might be a fit for the Lions, though the talent here is really mushed together.
Pick 29 – Washington Commanders: James Pearce Jr., EDGE (Tennessee)
The falling James Pearce (25.9 expected draft position) is such an excellent fit with Dan Quinn’s defense that I can’t really look past it, despite this being a good trade back spot for them.
Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills: Malaki Starks, S (Georgia)
The books still favor the Bills to go after defensive line, but the players are simply not there at this point. Starks has an expected draft position rank of 27 and has the versatility to play in the Bills defense.
Pick 31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Grey Zabel, OL (North Dakota State)
The Chiefs badly need an offensive lineman and the markets agree. Zabel has an expected draft position of 25 and can fill the swing to fill either left side position.
Pick 32 – Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Conerly, OL (Oregon)
I defer to my Birds-talking friend Shawn Syed. It is an interesting spot that could invite a trade back as the Eagles have needs along the defensive line and at the safety. One falling player could mean a trade up for Howie Roseman, but here they get a player that may be able to fit in at right guard this season and turn into a longer-term answer at tackle whenever Lane Johnson decides to hang up his cleats. If the Eagles make a first-round selection along the offensive line, that player will have the good fortune of working with legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland.
