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NFL Week 10 Review: A Week of Weirdness

The Lions and Chiefs hold serve, the Eagles and Cardinals fly high, and the 49ers and Steelers make their case. Here is everything you need to know from NFL Week 10.
by Shawn Syed|November 11, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The Detroit Lions threw five interceptions, were down by 16 points, and still beat the Houston Texans.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

On a Sunday full of upsets, oddities, and head scratchers, the Lions and Texans delivered a Sunday night game that will go down in the history books. Whether it will be found in the positive or negative chapter of said book is to be seen. The final box score of seven interceptions, nine punts, four sacks, and a missed go-ahead field goal does not quite capture the magic of the Lions 26-23 win over the Texans.

With two losses in three games, injuries piling up, and the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills solidifying themselves as the top teams in the AFC, the Houston Texans limped into a matchup with the class of the NFC. The Texans defense created pressure over multiple spots on the offensive line without standout rusher Will Anderson Jr., sped up Jared Goff in the pocket, and generated splash plays in the first half. Goff entered Week 10 with the fifth highest EPA/dropback under pressure and DeMeco Ryans’ unit did their best to change the rankings.

Houston was without star receiver Nico Collins, and C.J. Stroud was bailing out the offense’s early down run failures. Houston ended the game with an 8th percentile rushing success rate on early downs but took a 23-7 lead into halftime.

The second half opened as the first half closed, with an interception.  Then three of the next five possessions ended on interceptions. Then I found myself rooting for more interceptions. Neither team obliged as the Lions closed the gap early in the fourth quarter after trailing by 16 points. Even with a 38th percentile rushing success rate, Detroit chipped away with key third down conversions, Penei Sewell out in space, and just enough of Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown as they won the game by literal inches:

The Detroit Lions found a way to claw back in a game where Jared Goff had five interceptions, the run game was bottled up, and backup offensive linemen took the field. The Lions surrendered zero second half points, Brian Branch flew around the field like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and the defense carried the team to a win. It is difficult to have large-scale takeaways from a game that had as many turnovers as days of the week, but the Lions survived a poor offensive performance, shut the doors on defense, and found another way to win a game. We shouldn’t expect five interceptions from the Lions again, but we should expect them to be a team that can crawl back even from the deepest of depths.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: The Kansas City Chiefs are unbeatable, no matter what you do.

The Denver Broncos did (almost) everything right. They pressured Patrick Mahomes at the highest rate he has faced this season. They held Mahomes to a reasonable 57th percentile EPA/play performance. They swarmed the run game, were strong in the red zone, and even sacked Mahomes four times. They closed the day by setting up a 35-yard field goal for the win:

With a Leo Chenal blocked kick, Kansas City continued their undefeated season where seven of their nine wins have come in one score games. The Chiefs struggled in pass protection with an injury to starting left tackle Wanya Morris and the running game created little space. Denver’s defense deserves credit for holding Kansas City to just 16 points even while the Chiefs tallied yards after the catch and Mahomes added his usual nonsense.

There is an inevitability that hangs over these Chiefs games that defies analysis, analytics, film, and common logic. It doesn’t matter if you find a way to have Courtland Sutton beat Trent McDuffie. It doesn’t matter if you have a 92% win probability. It just doesn’t matter. For the rest of the season and into the playoffs, every other team hopes that somehow some way someone is going to take this giant down someday. If the Bills aren’t that team next week, an undefeated season could be on the horizon.

It Matters: The Pittsburgh Steelers inched out a win over the Washington Commanders.

The AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers have a clear formula for winning. They feature an attacking defensive line, follow it up with a steadfast desire to run the ball regardless of success, and sprinkle in the occasional Russell Wilson deep shot. Their formula was on full display in a 28-27 over the Washington Commanders as Russell Wilson’s 96th percentile average depth of target led to just enough big completions to George Pickens and the newest Steeler, Mike Williams.

The Commanders were able to limit Pittsburgh’s run game to just a 32% success rate while producing a 91st percentile success rate on the ground themselves. Jayden Daniels was consistent on quick throws, but he was just 5/18 for 49 yards on dropbacks that extended over 2.5 seconds. He was also sacked three times as Washington’s injured offensive line used chip blocks to help fight back against Pittsburgh’s formidable pass rush.

Washington had five three and outs on offense, blew a 10-point lead early in the 3rd quarter, and now must prepare to head to Philadelphia for a massive NFC East game on Thursday night. Marson Lattimore may become available in his second week with the Commanders as all eyes turn to the top of the division. The Eagles will look to create as much pressure as the Steelers did, but Washington should be able to succeed on the ground regardless of their offensive line injuries. The Commanders will need to be more successful when their primary receiver is covered (and limit their drops) as they look to take back the division lead.

It Didn’t Matter Today: The 49ers missed three field goals, lost the turnover battle, had more penalty yards than the Buccaneers, and were 1/3 in the red zone.

In Christian McCaffrey’s return to the San Francisco 49ers’ lineup, he played 54 out of a possible 61 offensive snaps. He ran his beloved outside zone, lined up in the slot as a receiver, and forced linebackers to feel his route running gravity. McCaffrey totaled 107 yards even though he only averaged three yards per carry. As he gets back to speed in this offense, I expect his impact to be felt even more as defenses once again face the unenviable task of covering a true route runner at the running back position.

McCaffrey’s return coincided with the 49ers offense looking a bit more like we expected coming into the year. San Francisco had their highest yards after catch total in a game this season and consistently took advantage on in-breaking routes. Kyle Shanahan expanded rookie Ricky Pearsall’s role as he was used on running start motions while Jauan Jennings stuffed the stat sheet. The 49ers only put up 23 points as their drives stalled and led to three missed field goals, but there were some encouraging returns to form for this offense. With the NFC West looking like a tough division, this win could be a springboard for the second half of San Francisco’s season.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on Week 9’s performances.

Best Play by Justin Herbert, Superhero

The Los Angeles Chargers have an awesome defense and an awesome quarterback. They are solidly in the playoff picture and Justin Herbert gave us some Kodak moments on Sunday. Herbert had a 95th percentile EPA/Play against a top 10 defense (by EPA/play) and performed through air and on the ground. Greg Roman has moved to more early down passes, and Herbert has elevated his receiving group. Let’s take a look at the Herbert highlight reel from the Chargers 27-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.

1. This beautiful juke

Justin Herbert has the unnatural ability to throw a football like a spear cutting through the air down the field. It is unfair that he has mobility like this:

2. This beautiful pump fake

Continuing in the rushing category, Herbert pulled off the good ole “I am definitely throwing this ball while I am scrambling, trust me there is nothing to see here” to make the defender look silly on the way to another first down:

3. This beautiful (to some people) run

On 4th and 1 early in the game, Jim Harbaugh decided to go for it. Greg Roman dialed up a designed quarterback run that was stopped at the point of attack before a cut back led to a touchdown:

4. Pretty much every throw this guy makes

Herbert had a fantastic throw that ended up in a drop in this one, but he can drop the ball into a moving basket with the best of them. His laser throws down the field are eye catching, but his accuracy is admirable. Heading into Week 10, Herbert ranked 3rd in on-target throw percentage among qualifying quarterbacks charted by Sports Info Solutions. This throw fell in line with that data point:

Most Surprising Performance in an Upset Win
1. New England Patriots

The 2-7 New England Patriots entered Chicago as 6.5-point underdogs and handed the Bears an awful stat sheet. Chicago surrendered nine sacks, had just 142 total yards of offense, went 1-14 on third down, and now is on a three-game losing streak with their next three games against division opponents. The Patriots challenged the Bears as they blitzed on almost half of Caleb Williams’s dropbacks, played man coverage throughout the game, and generated 18 pressures. The Bears offense ended the day with a 4th percentile EPA/play and an 8th percentile success rate as the feelings around Chicago have turned overwhelmingly negative.

2. Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers, owners of their first two-game win streak in nearly two years, played an entertaining game in Germany to start the Sunday slate. Chuba Hubbard led the way with 28 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown including a 60% success rate on runs outside the tackle away from Giants star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. Bryce Young played better in the first half than he did in the second half, and he had a few encouraging plays within the pocket on throws down the field. He also flashed some play making as Carolina ultimately forced a fumble on the first play of overtime on the way to an upset win.

3. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints were the darling of the first two weeks of the NFL season. Klint Kubiak was a future head coach, Derek Carr was an MVP, and Rashid Shaheed was the fastest player to ever put on cleats. The next seven games were all Saints losses that crested in a Dennis Allen firing. With the new coach bump combatting dwindling hope, the Saints upset the division-leading Atlanta Falcons 20-17 in a game where the Falcons were 5/14 on third down, 1/3 in the red zone, and 1/4 on field goal attempts. Marquez Valdes-Scantling put up a 3-109-3 stat line in a game that reminded us just how anything can happen on NFL Sundays.

Best Performance by a Division Leading Team with a Bird Mascot
1. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals faced little resistance on the way to a 31-6 win over the New York Jets. Kyler Murray’s 22 completions on 24 attempts produced a 99th percentile EPA/play, 97th percentile total EPA, and 97th percentile completion percentage over expected. Murray was perfect under pressure, had 67% of his yards come after the catch, and added to the fun on the ground. Arizona limited the Jets to just 1/5 for 14 yards on passes 10 or more yards down the field as their zone coverage limited Aaron Rodgers to an 18th percentile EPA/play. Arizona is now on a four-game win streak as they head into their bye week.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles squared up with a struggling Dallas Cowboys team that was missing Dak Prescott in Week 10. The Cowboys drew to within one point with a field goal after the two-minute warning before the Eagles scored 27 consecutive points on the way to a 34-6 knockout. Jalen Hurts took five first half sacks and added an interception on the way to a 50th percentile EPA/play. Hurts played cleaner as the half came to a close and into the third quarter as he ended the day 7/9 for 115 yards and two touchdowns while under pressure.

The Eagles defense continued their hot streak as they recovered four fumbles, added an interception, and let up a total of 66 pass yards. Their dominance was good for the best performance by EPA/play of any team this season.

Vic Fangio’s unit has been impressive over their five-game win streak as they have had impressive play from all three levels. The interior defensive line is creating problems, Zach Baun is playing at an All-Pro level, and Quinyon Mitchell is making his case for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Eagles have a quick turnaround as they host the Washington Commanders in a season-defining game. A win would push the Eagles away from the Commanders in the NFC East and could solidify this defense as a top unit in the league.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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