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NFL Week 11 Review: The Buffalo Bills are Here to Stay

The Bills may be the best, The Steelers won without scoring a touchdown, and the rookie quarterbacks stepped up to the plate. Here is what you need to know from NFL Week 11.
by Shawn Syed|November 18, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The Buffalo Bills made their case to be considered the best team in the league.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Buffalo Bills entered their Sunday matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs without Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, or their starting right tackle, Spencer Brown. The Bills left the matchup with a signature win as they were the first team to score 30 points on the Chiefs since the 2022 Super Bowl.

This Bills win was thanks in large part to Josh Allen and the offense, but the defense deserves credit for making life hard on Patrick Mahomes. Gregory Rousseau, a 93rd percentile pass rusher by SumerSports’ computer vision metrics, generated five pressures as the defense pressured Mahomes on almost 40% of his dropbacks. Christian Benford continued his impressive streak in the secondary, and he allowed just 18 yards on six targets, four of which were in tight windows. Mahomes mustered just a 56th percentile EPA/Play performance as the Bills were able to turn an interception on the second play of the game into points.

Buffalo’s ability to create pressure with four pass rushers and challenge receivers on the outside is a potent combo that will be made stronger when All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano makes his return to the lineup. The Bills head into the bye with Milano’s return nearing as the offense also looks to get healthier.

The Bills threw us off their scent early this season with consecutive losses to the Ravens and Texans where their offensive line looked overmatched. Chris Jones was able to generate pressure when single teamed, but Buffalo was able to hold Jones to just one pressure on 13 double team snaps. Josh Allen was 8/16 for 108 yards, a touchdown, and an interception against the blitz, but was 19/24 for 154 yards when not blitzed as Buffalo continued their low average depth of target offense. Khalil Shakir totaled 70 yards (56 after the catch) on eight receptions, while Curtis Samuel scored his first touchdown as a Bill.

Buffalo heads into the bye week with a legitimate claim as the best team in the AFC and the 49ers, Rams, and Lions as their next three matchups. Bills fans may circle that last one as a potential Super Bowl preview.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Didn’t Matter: The Pittsburgh Steelers scored zero touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense had the following numbers against the Balitmore Ravens:

  • 9th percentile EPA/play
  • 6th percentile success rate
  • 4/16 on 3rd down
  • 0/4 in the red zone
  • Zero touchdowns

Russell Wilson had the following numbers against the Baltimore Ravens:

  • 11th percentile EPA/play
  • 7th percentile Total EPA
  • 9th percentile average depth of target
  • Four sacks
  • One interception

The Pittsburgh Steelers had the following result against the Baltimore Ravens:

  • An 18-16 win

In a game that offense aficionados would like to purge from their memory, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense led the way as Chris Boswell’s six field goals were enough to win the game. The Steelers forced two first half fumbles, Peyton Wilson had an absurd interception, and Justin Tucker missed two field goals. We shouldn’t expect that type of turnover performance to continue for Baltimore (though the missed field goals are becoming too commonplace), but the Steelers are happy to drag any team into the mud. The Ravens couldn’t get their wheels spinning fast enough as Lamar Jackson completed just 48% of his passes, Derrick Henry rushed for just 65 yards, and Zay Flowers had just two catches.

It Mattered, Then It Didn’t, and Then It Did: Justin Herbert is an artist at work.

Not all great artists are appreciated in their time. I hope we all can appreciate the public displays of quarterbacking Justin Herbert has handed us over the last few weeks. Against the Bengals, Herbert had a 44th percentile EPA/play but I will not let this number stop us from being in awe at some of the throws Herbert made. The Chargers bolted out to a 24-6 first half lead behind throws like this:

And this:

And even this:

The second half was a disaster for the Chargers as four three and outs, dropped passes, and a Herbert fumble resulted in a 27-27 game. Cincinnati was able to challenge the Chargers on the outside as Joe Burrow’s play extension and timing on out-breaking routes was on full display. The Chargers punted on their next three drives after the score was tied up, and the Bengals missed two long field goals. Justin Herbert then added to his tight window throw tab to quickly get the Chargers down the field before a J.K. Dobbins touchdown run.

Justin Herbert is a create-a-player quarterback and was the perfect foil for Joe Burrow’s comeback performance. The Chargers defense was dominant early before surrendering ground in the second half, but the unit has been solid all season long. Even with tests ahead in the Ravens and Chiefs, Los Angeles looks like a playoff contender. We are better off for it when Herbert is refusing to obey the laws of physics with his throws, and Jesse Minter is doing enough on the defensive end to frustrate quarterbacks.

Everything Matters and Nothing Matters Here: The NFC West is a mosh pit.

On one hand, the NFC West is an exciting division where one team is 6-4 and every other team is 5-5. On the other hand, the NFC West is a mosh pit in a traffic jam between the Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams. The Cardinals had the privilege of the bye week in Week 11 as the Seahawks and 49ers took their game down to the wire while the Rams offense looked strong in a win over the Patriots.

The 49ers were efficient, but not explosive, on the ground against Seattle and struggled to create big plays through the air. Brock Purdy was comfortable throwing to Jauan Jennings in tight windows, but Purdy finished the day with just a 56th percentile EPA/play. Deebo Samuel had 22 yards on four receptions as George Kittle missed this game with an injury. The 49ers had as high as a 91.5% win probability before a Geno Smith scramble gave Mike Macdonald a fantastic win early in his Seahawks tenure.

The 49ers still have games against the Packers, Bills, Rams, and Cardinals on their schedule. They are fully in the race for the division, but their margin for error is getting thinner with every loss. Christian McCaffery went over 100 total yards again, but a Nick Bosa injury adds another problem to the running list for San Francisco.

The Rams, on the other hand, rebounded from a rough Monday night loss last week as Matthew Stafford put on a show. The defense had 11 different players register a pressure on the way to a near 50% pressure rate. The Rams formula of a spear throwing quarterback and a high-powered defensive line may have staying power even if it has been volatile this season.

The Rams will host the Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday night as every team in this division has tough games ahead. The division lead will likely change hands multiple times over the next few weeks, and it may not be decided until Arizona plays Los Angeles and San Francisco in the last two weeks of the season.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on Week 11’s performances.

Best Performance by a Rookie Quarterback
1. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are proving to be a problem in the AFC as their dominant defense is getting more support from the offense. Bo Nix has settled in over the last two games and has been steadily improving in multiple areas. His footwork looks cleaner, he looks calmer in the pocket, and the pass protection is helping out. Nix was 22/25 for 169 yards and three touchdowns on passes under 10 air yards against the Falcons as two of his touchdowns came on throws behind the line of scrimmage. He was able to have some success driving the ball further down the field, and he is settling into Sean Payton’s offense that uses multiple personnel groupings to make life hard on defenses.

2. Drake Maye, New England Patriots

In what I can only assume will be the best rookie performance on film this week, Drake Maye continued to improve. Maye has shown the willingness to scramble when needed, but his third down creativity (and execution) gives Patriots fans flashes of the future. He can also play on time within the offense and can stress the defense to every area of the field. Maye ended the game with a less than stellar interception, but his game was still noteworthy.

3. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The Bears came into Week 11 with a new offensive coordinator, a fresh play sheet, and a glimmer of hope. Caleb Williams ended up getting rid of the ball quicker, was more creative in the pocket, and squeezed in some tight window throws. After a back-and-forth game, Williams was able to drive the Bears all the way into field goal range with just 35 seconds left. The Bears then ran the ball once, let the clock drain to three seconds, and burned their last timeout. This was before a blocked field goal that turns the Caleb Williams Should Have Been a Win counter up to an unfortunate two.

Best Example of Taking Care of Business: Detroit Lions

There is taking care of business and then there is what the Detroit Lions did to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Lions entered as heavy favorites against Jacksonville’s backup quarterback, but some of the numbers after the game are staggering:

  • The Detroit Lions scored a touchdown on every single possession where Jared Goff played
  • The Lions offense had a 100th percentile EPA/play and success rate
  • Jared Goff had a 100th percentile EPA/play and total EPA
  • The Lions scored 52 points

The Lions vaporized the Jaguars in Detroit, and stepping on the gas in games you should win is an important aspect of a dominant team. Jared Goff rebounded from a rough outing against the Texans, and Ben Johnson dialed up explosive plays whenever he wanted. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams both went over 120 yards through the air as this game was over in a hurry.

Best Performance By a 6’4” 240+ Pound Player: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

After spending two games on the bench, human highlight reel (for good and sometimes for not so good) Anthony Richardson was back in the starting lineup as the Colts played the Jets in East Rutherford. Richardson was not perfect, but he did look improved as he made accurate throws down the field. Two rushing touchdowns added to Richardson’s bounce back day as he will look to continue cleaning up his game.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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