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NFL Week 13 Review: The Eagles are the Best of the Birds

The Eagles may have the best defense in the league, Josh Allen plays football like a video game, and Russell Wilson threw for over 400 yards. Here's what you need to know from NFL Week 13.
by Shawn Syed|December 2, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: The Philadelphia Eagles grounded the best offense in the league.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

The Baltimore Ravens entered Week 13 as the best offense in football. Baltimore had the highest offensive EPA/play and EPA/dropback as well as the second highest EPA/rush. Lamar Jackson was collecting votes on another MVP campaign, Derrick Henry had his eyes on a rushing title, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken was pulling all the right levers. That was before Vic Fangio’s Eagles defense came to town.

The Eagles defense has been nothing short of a revelation this season. After spending last season around the bottom of most metrics, Vic Fangio has put together a unit that has a strong argument to be the best in football. Sunday only made the argument louder.

Philadelphia’s run defense has been a physical unit between Jalen Carter in the middle, Nakobe Dean emerging, and legitimate All-Pro candidate Zach Baun stopping ball carriers. That physicality was on display as the Ravens 1st and 2nd down runs produced just a 22nd percentile performance by EPA/rush. The Eagles front aced their biggest run game test of the season, and Lamar Jackson was forced into superhero mode. The Eagles sacked Jackson three times and Milton Williams was able to create pressure while Jalen Carter was double teamed in what was a strong performance by an injury-riddled pass rush room.

Jackson was able to make plays on scrambles, but the Eagles did just enough to stop solid drives and force field goal attempts. Justin Tucker’s two missed field goals and a missed extra point did a lot to help the Eagles float through a 9-0 1st quarter deficit as well as two three and outs to start the 2nd half before the running game hit its stride. The Eagles finished the game much more efficient on the ground than through the air, and Saquon Barkley went over 100 yards once again.

The Eagles pass game continues to hit road bumps, but there were encouraging signs between play action passes, passes over the middle of the field, and creative RPO designs. DeVonta Smith should be back in the lineup soon to help out, and Philadelphia has managed to win eight straight games all while figuring it out through the air.

The defense, though, is already figured out and ready to make a playoff run. Vic Fangio’s scheme is studied around the league, but it is his gameplans that separate him from his peers. Fangio’s defense was the difference for the Eagles on Sunday, has been the difference for the Eagles this whole season, and may be the difference for the Eagles deep into the post season.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Definitely Matters: The Minnesota Vikings came back from down 13 points late in the 3rd quarter to beat the Arizona Cardinals.

The Arizona Cardinals had a good plan for the Minnesota Vikings. They blitzed Sam Darnold at a high rate, tallied a pressure on more than half of his dropbacks, and had five sacks. Kyler Murray capped off a 73-yard touchdown drive to go up 19-6 late in the 3rd quarter and the plan was looking like a winning one. The Vikings had a different idea:

The Vikings comeback win was impressive on both sides of the ball. Minnesota was in predictable passing situations, and Sam Darnold did not flinch. The defense also did their part as they had two interceptions in their last three drives. In between those two interceptions, the Cardinals faced a question that I would like to explore further. Join me for Decision Corner where we can look at hypothetical situations in isolation from the comfort of our virtual shared space with relatively few consequences.

After a well-designed middle screen to Trey McBride, the Cardinals had a 4th and goal on the four-yard line with 3:23 left in the game. Arizona was up by three points and had all three timeouts while the Vikings had just one timeout.

Though we are not party to all of the contextual factors involved in a 4th down decision, here are some to consider:

  • Arizona entered Week 13 with a 36% conversion rate on 4th downs.
  • Kyler Murray is an exceptional play-extending quarterback that is frustrating to deal with in conversion situations.
  • Arizona ended the day with a 76th percentile EPA/play and 72nd percentile success rate on late downs.
  • Arizona’s defense caused some struggles and created pressure for the Vikings, but Sam Darnold’s last two drives led to a touchdown and a field goal.

Now we are at our decision point. Do you kick it to go up by six or go for a touchdown to go up by 10? I generally lean towards aggressiveness in these situations and am always aware of how easy it is to question the decision after the fact behind a keyboard. Either decision has merit, but I think it is worth exploring the potential outcomes:

Go for it:
  • If you go for it and score a touchdown, you are about to put the game out of reach.
  • If you go for it and draw a penalty and get a new set of downs, we can repeat this process if you can’t get one yard in the next three plays.
  • If you go for it and fail to convert, the Vikings have the ball 96 yards away from a touchdown, are down by three points, and have just one timeout remaining. There are three minutes left in the game, you have all three timeouts, and the opposing kicker has made field goals from 31, 44, and 55, but missed from 43.
Kick it:
  • If you kick it and miss the kick, however unlikely that may be, refer to the bottom bullet point above.
  • If you make the kick, you are now up by six points with around three minutes left in the game. The Vikings have one timeout, will get the ball around the 30-yard line after the kickoff, and you have three timeouts left.

The Cardinals decided to kick to go up by six, but I don’t think it is as enviable a situation as it seems.

I understand that six is greater than three, and I understand that a successful conversion is not a guaranteed fact. Still, there is a very real chance that you score a touchdown if you go for it, and I don’t want that overlooked. If you kick, being up by six points lets the offense know they must use all four downs to score a touchdown. The other team will likely get the ball at or around the 30-yard line after the kickoff instead of starting the drive in the shadow of their own goal posts. They will not settle for a field goal, and they will not get conservative when they are in field goal range.

Lucky for the discussion, The Vikings had a 4th and 5 from the Cardinals’ 33-yard line on the drive that followed the decision to kick. With John Parker Romo hitting a 55-yard field goal earlier in the day, there is a real possibility that Minnesota would have attempted a game-tying field goal just outside of the two-minute warning. If they missed that kick, Arizona would be a first down away from melting the clock away. If they made the kick, Arizona would have three timeouts and two minutes to go in a tied game. Instead, Minnesota converted on that fourth down, drove down to score a touchdown to go up by one, and the Cardinals followed it up with an interception.

And again, we don’t have every bit of information here. We don’t know what was left on Drew Petzing’s call sheet. We don’t know what Arizona internally had their conversion probability at. What we do know, though, is Minnesota joined the Atlanta Falcons as teams to win a game after the other team kicked a short field goal to go up six late in the fourth quarter. The Falcons situation was a bit different; Atlanta only had 1:39 left and had no timeouts, while the Eagles faced a 4th and 3 from the 10-yard line as opposed to a 4th and goal like the Cardinals did.

Arizona did still have 1:13 on the clock and three timeouts down by one to moot the point, but a Shaq Griffin interception ended the game. For an analytics driven view of the decision outside of the discussion above, ESPN’s model strongly recommended going for it in this situation:

Even after typing all of this, I can understand the argument to just kick the field goal. 4th downs do not always end in conversions. There are tons of moving factors at play in the situation. Still, it was an interesting data point in the long history of football decision making. If you think I am way off here, feel free to let my editor (me) know.

It Is Mattering More: Russell Wilson keeps on competing deep passes.

In a game that the Cincinnati Bengals absolutely could not under any circumstances afford to lose, Russell Wilson put on a show at Paycor Stadium. Wilson threw for a staggering 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, which was good for a 90th percentile EPA/play performance on the way to a 44-38 win.

Wilson’s success on deep throws feels commonplace now as Steelers receivers have the magical ability to catch every ball sent into the sky. Wilson did make some high-level throws after extending the play and into tight windows, though, and an improving offense would be massive for the AFC North leaders.

The Steelers defense struggled on a down-to-down basis as the Bengals soared to a 95th percentile offensive success rate but hit splash plays with two forced fumbles (one returned for a touchdown), an interception, and four sacks. As with much of the season, Cincinnati’s margin for error was razor thin, and they ended up on the wrong side of it once again.

It Didn’t Matter: The Los Angeles Chargers scored zero offensive touchdowns, had 147 passing yards, and were 3/11 on 3rd down.

Justin Herbert, noted superhuman, had just 147 passing yards and no touchdowns against the Falcons. The Chargers ran for just 56 yards. They surrendered five sacks and were 0/2 in the red zone. They had an 8th percentile EPA/play, a 6th percentile success rate, and no offensive touchdowns. Still, they left Atlanta with a win behind a high-powered performance from Jesse Minter’s defense. The Chargers forced four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, as they slammed the door shut on a late drive to win.

The Chargers offense did have a bright spot, though, as rookie Ladd McConkey was on the receiving end for 117 of Herbert’s 147 passing yards. McConkey is a legitimate piece for this offense and is a constant threat on crossing routes. The Chargers will look to square away their offense as they prepare to play the Chiefs next Sunday night.

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on this week’s performances.

Play of the Day: Josh Allen to Amari Cooper to Josh Allen to the end zone

Here is the ESPN play-by play description for a Bills touchdown late in the 3rd quarter:

(5:58 – 3rd) A.Anderson reported in as eligible. J.Allen pass short left to A.Cooper to SF 9 for -2 yards. Lateral to J.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Here is the hilarious no, no, YES that made that beautiful line a reality:

The Bills looked like they had a run play called with a quick throw alert based on the defense. The one-handed bobbled catch was noteworthy in and of itself, but the lateral was inspired work. Allen followed his throw right away, and he is one of few quarterbacks who has earned the right to play backyard football on the largest stage. He even shook off a tackler as he logged a passing touchdown, receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown (but technically not a reception!) on the same play. Allen had a 97th percentile EPA/play in the 35-10 win over the 49ers, and he now is shuffling to the front of the MVP race.

Decision of the Day: Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

With 5:34 left in the 4th quarter down by seven, Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts took the field with a chance to tie the game. They converted two 4th downs and two 3rd downs before a 1st and goal inside the 10-yard line. The Colts needed four more plays to score as they completed an 18-play touchdown drive. After all that and with 12 seconds left in the game, Shane Steichen made the decision to go for two points and the win instead of kicking the extra point to tie the game and send it to overtime.

The decision led to a win for Indianapolis who survived a missed 68-yard field goal attempt at the buzzer. Anthony Richardson ended the day with a 68th percentile EPA/Play on a 99th percentile average depth of target. The Colts also had successful rushes on 58% of attempts, good for a 97th percentile performance.

There is a formula in Indianapolis brewing. It isn’t perfect, and it is being tweaked with every game, drive, and snap. Still, it has me intrigued as the Colts look ahead to a playoff push.

Defensive Touchdown of the Day: Leonard Williams, Seattle Seahawks

Here are some occurrences from the first two quarters of the Seattle Seahawks game against the New York Jets: two Seahawks punts, three Jets touchdowns, two lost Seahawks fumbles on kickoff. On a day where everything was swinging in New York’s direction, former Jet Leonard Williams dropped into coverage as part of one of Mike Macdonald’s pressure calls. Williams made his way right into a quick throw window, deflected the ball up to himself, and secured an interception. Very impressive for a 310-pound defensive lineman. Wait until you see what happened after he made the catch:

The Seahawks went on to win the game 26-21 and are at the top of the wild, wild (NFC) West. They have been led by their defense during their three-game win streak and held Aaron Rodgers to just 2/14 for 35 yards on throws 10 or more yards down the field. On the other side, Geno Smith was able to connect with Jaxon Smith-Njigba on deep throws while handling the blitz as the Seahawks offense put up a 69th percentile EPA/play performance but landed at a 20th percentile success rate. That statistical profile matches how Seattle has played recently; the Seahawks can create big plays behind incredible Geno Smith individual efforts, but the offense has lacked overall down-to-down consistency.

Best Return to Form: Washington Commanders

The Washington Commanders got back on track in Week 13 with a 42-19 win over the Tennessee Titans to break a three-game losing streak. The Commanders took it to the Titans on the ground with a combined 45 rushing attempts for 267 yards and three touchdowns (97th percentile EPA/rush, 96th percentile rushing success rate). The Titans entered this game in the top five in both EPA/rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed, but the Commanders were able to get creative with Jayden Daniels, attack with Brian Robinson, and even use Chris Rodriguez Jr. to close the game. The Commanders are likely going to be in the NFC playoffs with a few positive matchups down the stretch, and their rushing attack will make them a tough out for whoever they play.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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