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NFL Week 14 Review: The Vikings Are on a Roll

The Vikings are heating up, The Eagles are still working through their pass game, and Matthew Stafford put on a show. Here is what you need to know about NFL Week 14.
by Shawn Syed|December 9, 2024

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Welcome to The Monday Morning Mashup! In this column, I will share all of the things from NFL Sunday that I think are worth your time. It may be good things, it may be bad things, it may be plays or play calls or players, but it will all be rooted in my love for this beautiful, ugly, fascinating, frustrating game we call football.

Jump to:

First Things First: Kevin O’Connell trusts Sam Darnold, and Sam Darnold trusts Kevin O’Connell. Maybe we should trust them.

If you only remember one thing from this Sunday, this is what it should be.

Connections matter in the NFL. Connections matter between quarterbacks and wide receivers, offensive linemen and other offensive linemen, and between linebackers and the secondary. This season, one of my favorite connections has been between Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold. Both O’Connell and Darnold played college ball on the West Coast, bounced around multiple NFL rosters, and now find themselves squarely in Minnesota. The two also share a clear desire to drive a stake through the heart of every NFL defense regardless of the game situation, how Darnold has been playing, or who is on the field.

Darnold threw five touchdown passes against the Atlanta Falcons as the Vikings almost broke the statistical charts. They registered a 99th percentile EPA/play, 98th percentile EPA/dropback, and 100th percentile late down performance. Kevin O’Connell uses Justin Jefferson’s gravity against defense by manipulating the secondary with motion to open up Jordan Addison, but O’Connell also has the creativity to scheme open a star player that has every eye in the stadium on him.

Maybe more impressive, though, is how O’Connell has continued to dial up shots for Darnold and the offense. Darnold is constantly asked to make splash plays, and he has paid off O’Connell’s trust. The Vikings should be excited about how Darnold came back from down two scores against the Cardinals in Week 13 and how he continued to roll this week. Minnesota will be a tough out in the playoffs because the defense can create an explosive play, but the Vikings offense will be an attacking force regardless of if they are leading, trailing, or tied. With Sam Darnold playing like he has been, I would have no interest playing against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Matter Meter

How much does what we saw on Sunday actually matter?

It Mattered Down the Stretch: Matthew Stafford outdueled Josh Allen in a laser show. Some game management decisions deserve a second look.

In football, there are box scores, advanced metrics, highlight reels, and morphing narratives. With all of that, we must never forget how deeply fun the game of football can be. Even the coldest of hearts faced the specter of warmth when Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford took the field in Week 14. The Rams scored a touchdown on an early blocked punt before the teams traded nine more touchdowns.

Impressive does a disservice to the numbers in this one. The Bills had a 100th percentile EPA/play, 92nd percentile success rate, and 98th percentile EPA/dropback. The Rams matched that with a 95th percentile EPA/play, 89th percentile success rate, and 99th percentile EPA/dropback. But forget the numbers for a second. The throws and catches that were made in this game were absurd. I could go on for 3,000 words just about some of the lasers on display at SoFi Stadium, but I have been told that would be “too many words.” You be the judge.

Let’s get started with the best catch of the game. In the middle of the second quarter, Matthew Stafford turned an under-center play action into a tight window throw to Puka Nacua. Nacua gets a ton of credit here for the last second adjustment, the flexibility, and nailing his two feet to the ground.

Nacua has hit another level after a strong rookie season as he is dominant at the catch point. He can track the ball in the air but can also jump with anyone.

Josh Allen, who ran for three touchdowns and passed for three touchdowns, had no desire to be outdone by Stafford as he continued to build his MVP case. Allen was throwing downfield handoffs that could not have been placed any better.

This game had two situations that I think deserve another look. First, the Bills were down by three points with just under five minutes in the fourth quarter when Matthew Stafford scrambled to his left on a 3rd and 7. Stafford was pushed out of bounds, but the Rams were flagged for offensive holding. The Bills had the chance to give the Rams a 4th and 6 at the Bills’ 35-yard line but accepted the penalty to create a 3rd and 16. The Rams proceeded to gain 11 yards on a short pass and then ultimately went for and converted a 4th and 5. Sean McVay is not known for his willingness to go for it on 4th downs, but he ended up avoiding the unenviable kick to go up six end of game situation that we discussed last week in the context of the Cardinals and Vikings.

The Bills got the ball back after a Rams touchdown down nine with 1:54 left in the game and all three timeouts remaining. Josh Allen put an extra cape on top of the superhero cape he was already wearing and marched the ball down the field in just a minute. On 1st and goal from the one-yard line, the Bills turned to their high-percentage quarterback push sneak. It almost always succeeds, but here it was stopped and forced Buffalo to take a timeout. At this point, the Bills guaranteed that they would have to recover the onside kick, which is a very low percentage proposition. To be fair, kicking it back to the Rams and getting three straight run stops leading to a punt was also far from a guaranteed occurrence, but limiting your options seems suboptimal. Sean McDermott gave his side of the story after the game:

A game that had 86 points, 12 touchdowns, and a handful of jaw-dropping moments was a game of the year candidate with playoff implications. The Bills fell off the Chiefs AFC lead, and the Rams are still a real threat in the NFC West. This Week 14 matchup may be lost to time by the end of the season, but the Stafford-Allen show was a thrill to witness.

It Hasn’t Mattered for Nine Games but Might Matter Later: The Eagles pass game still hasn’t put it all together.

On one hand, the Philadelphia Eagles have won nine straight games, will likely be at worst the two seed in the NFC, and Saquon Barkley just set the franchise single-season rushing record. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Eagles have real struggles in the passing games, injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and almost lost to the 3-9 Carolina Panthers. The Philadelphia dichotomy goes deeper than that, though. Their defense is leading where their offense was expected to, the running game is more efficient than the passing game, and their high-level kicker Jake Elliot is sitting at 0/5 on 50+ yard attempts this season.

It is rare to be handily leading the division, on a huge win streak, and still figuring things out through the air. The Eagles have won close games and taken care of tough opponents but haven’t scored a touchdown on their offense’s opening drive; they seem to restart the PlayStation after drive two. Despite the modern NFL’s insistence on passing leading the way, the Eagles have had more efficient days on the ground than through the air in seven of their 13 games this season. The Panthers game was no exception.

The film will help show what was happening in the Panthers secondary, but Jalen Hurts had a low average depth of target and a high time to throw, while A.J. Brown did not see a target until after the two-minute warning. Hurts holding onto the ball hints that there may not have been open receivers, and Philadelphia couldn’t attack on the outside. The Eagles did have some middle of the field throws last week, and it has felt like the passing game has been inching forward for 14 weeks.

One week they add on play action. The next week they add on middle of the field throws. The next week they add on more creative route concepts. The Eagles how shown the individual component parts of a strong passing game but still must put it all together. Although, when they are running the ball as they are and their defense can close games, there is a chance that this team can make a deep run in the playoffs even with uneven days through the air.

It Just Doesn’t Matter What You Do: The Kansas City Chiefs won another close game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have some hilarious numbers. They have won both of their last two games 19-17 and 10 of their wins have occurred in one-score games. Ten teams have better point differentials than them on the season (including two in the division), yet no one has a better record. They frustrate, confound, and fluster, but just won the AFC West for the ninth year in a row.

Part of what makes the Chiefs frustrating is that opponents get so close to beating them. The Raiders looked like they were on the brink of winning on Black Friday, and the Chargers scored 14 third quarter points to take a lead into the fourth quarter in Week 14. The Chargers defense made it hard for Kansas City as they forced four punts, sacked Patrick Mahomes three times, and held Kansas City’s early down run game to a 21st percentile performance by EPA/rush.

When the chips were on the table, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs made it happen, again. The Chiefs were a strong 8/15 on third down despite being 1/3 in the red zone. They have been great on third and fourth downs all season and now lead the league in both EPA/play and success rate on late downs. That is usually a volatile metric, but Patrick Mahomes has an invincibility cloak and can always make just enough players miss.

With the Bills loss to the Rams, the Chiefs can breathe a sigh of relief even if they continue to make our hearts beat faster. Their last four games are against the Browns, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. We can look at numbers, film, and everything in between to point out numerous issues with this team. The problem is all of those issues have been pushed to the side as any slip up gives this team a chance to win. Los Angeles missed a wide-open deep throw early in the game, punted twice from Kansas City territory, and had a penalty on the final kickoff of the game that gave the Chiefs the ball on the 40-yard line before a need to have it drive.

To beat Kansas City, you must play perfect, be aggressive on fourth downs, and make your own luck. Does the NFL have any teams that could do a Lion’s share of those things in February?

And the Award Goes to…

Here are some very real, very important awards handed out by an esteemed committee based on this week’s performances.

The Leader in the Clubhouse Award

The NFL has three divisions where the first and second place team are just one win away from each other: the NFC North (we will leave that be for today), the NFC South, and the NFC West.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFC South

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only team with a winning record in the NFC South but sit just one game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons beat the Buccaneers twice already this season, so Tampa Bay needs to avoid an end of season tiebreaker situation. The Buccaneers hosted the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday and jumped out to a 14-point lead on the way to a 28-13 win.

The Buccaneers ended the day with a 76th percentile EPA/play and an 85th percentile success rate but were even better on the ground (84th percentile EPA/rush, 89th percentile rushing success rate). Liam Coen put together a quality opening script for Baker Mayfield, but two interceptions and four sacks bumped Mayfield’s numbers down. I have continued to enjoy Coen’s play design and game planning, particularly with creativity on the ground, and he will find himself in some head coaching interviews this offseason.

2. Seattle Seahawks, NFC West

The Seahawks and Cardinals faced off in Week 14 for the right to lead the NFC West. Seattle scored 17 points in the first quarter as they tried to quell some concerns for the offense and added in two Kyler Murray interceptions on the other end. The Seahawks defense is a compelling unit with Leonard Williams creating chaos up front, linebackers speeding down hill, and the secondary shrinking space. Murray had a 3rd percentile average depth of target, and both of his interceptions came on throws over 10 yards down the field.

Seattle’s offense was able to produce a better day behind some explosive plays and Geno Smith avoiding sacks. Zach Charbonnet forced nine missed tackles and had 137 yards after contact to help Seattle’s 77th percentile EPA/rush performance.

The NFC West will entertain over the last four weeks of the season as Seattle plays Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago, while Los Angeles plays the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals before the Seahawks and Rams meet up for a Week 18 date. The Rams would win the division by winning out and have an easier rest of the way, but I love the way Seattle is playing defense. The Rams beat the Seahawks earlier in the season, and I am looking forward to Mike Macdonald getting another shot at Sean McVay.

Best Celebrating Team: Minnesota Vikings

We are finishing this one where we started; the Minnesota Vikings are the best celebrating team in the NFL. This honor asks a team to hit multiple benchmarks. First, a team has to create enough big plays to earn the right to celebrate. Next, coordination is not mandatory, but it is certainly encouraged. Finally, it is the consistency that separates the cheerful from the truly jovial.

Against the Falcons, an early Josh Metellus interception led to cementing the Vikings as award winners here. Metellus and repeat celebration star Cam Bynum put on a performance of a dance from the movie White Chicks. At this point, I am just not sure how any team can catch up when Minnesota is putting together celebrations like this on a weekly basis.

Special thanks to NFL Pro and RBSDM.com for the stat assistance!

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